Expression black swan. The Black Swan Theory and the Fundamental Vulnerability of Automated Systems

Black Swan is a theory that considers difficult-to-predict and rare events that have significant consequences. The author of the theory is the Lebanese scientist Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1960), who in his book "Black Swan: Under the Sign of Unpredictability" coined the term "Black Swan events" (English TBS, The Black Swan). The author identifies three main criteria for an event of the "Black Swan" type: 1) the event is unexpected for experts, 2) the event has significant consequences, 3) after the event occurs, a rationalistic explanation is found, as if it were expected. From the point of view of Nassim Taleb, almost all significant political events are Black Swans. Examples of Black Swans are First World War, collapse Soviet Union, September 11, 2001 attack, etc.

Znak.com correspondent Yekaterina Vinokurova in an article on March 12 "Black swans flew over the Kremlin", dedicated, declares that "The Black Swan is a popular description of the events taking place in 2015 in Russian politics." According to her, the Russian elite is now experiencing "the most severe crisis during the entire period of Putin's rule." Russian political scientists began to use the term "black swan" on February 28, the day after the assassination of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov. "Gossip last days- this is another "black swan" for the system. And this flock looks more and more gloomy, replenishing exponentially throughout the "Crimean year". Viacheslav Volodin was right: Russia and its political regime are one person. Today we clearly demonstrate this and show that this way the exercise of power is fraught not only with the merits of exceptional stability and cohesion, but is also limited by purely biological factors, ”says political scientist Gleb Kuznetsov.

It is clear that the theory of the "Black Swan" is acquiring special relevance for Russia in connection with the cultural and political significance for the history of the country of the ballet "Swan Lake", but I would say about it a little differently. Firstly, predicting future events is impossible based solely on a rational view of the world; this requires intuition and a special gift of the oracle, as well as a broad outlook that allows timely reading of the correct references to events that have already occurred and meanings that have already been then have been described. The future is multivariate, but the lines of force with the appropriate gift can be quite grasped (in occultism this is called "reading the ether"). Of course, this cannot be put on stream, since intuition is either turned on or is silent, and nothing can make it work artificially.

Secondly, complex systems, like our world, in principle do not imply some isolated resonant events, so it is obvious that behind a tragic event like the murder of Boris Nemtsov (let me remind you that he once held very high positions in power - the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Minister of Fuel and Energy, First Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Speaker of the State Duma, even unofficially was at one time Yeltsin's successor) other, no less significant incidents were bound to follow. Among the mystics, when going to new level reality, it is often customary to speak of a chain of events, the connection between which cannot be established with the help of positivism. However, esoterically, such a connection exists as a series of dreams that consistently tell a person about his life in another dimension.

In other words, it should be said that an event of the "black swan" type, which overturns the perception of the masses about the world, is impossible without the implementation of a series of events of a completely different scale before, the connection of the main event with which can be established only by initiates. Astrologers describe these events in their own language, but I would call such preceding events "symptoms", since most often, speaking of "black swans", we mean tragic events (wars, disintegration of states, terrorist attacks). In early February (even before the murder of Nemtsov), I posted on my blog about the frequent prodigies in Russia, which portend something ominous and are symptoms of a disease in society. At the beginning of March (after the murder of Nemtsov), I wrote the entry "A New Russian Troubles Has Begun Already?"

At the macro level, the degradation of Putin's system began to manifest itself after his return to the Kremlin in 2012. It was with 2012 that apocalyptic representations of the end of the world were associated (according to the Mayan calendar). The main negative symptoms of 2013 were two events. The first is Putin's divorce from his wife. According to a number of esotericists, his wife Lyudmila was Putin's Guardian Angel and neutralized his bad karma. It is symbolic that they announced their divorce during the intermission of the premiere of the ballet "Esmeralda" in the Kremlin. The name Esmeralda translates as "emerald", and the emerald is a stone of inspiration and endless patience, it is known as the "stone of successful love", which brings family happiness... It enhances unity, is favorable for friendship and partnership, removes everything negative. Thus, in the summer of 2013, the emerald that adorns it fell out of Putin's crown, and the tyrant himself became more withdrawn and conflicted. No less symbolic is the play "Esmeralda" itself, during the intermission of which the divorce was announced - it is known that its premiere in London took place in March 1844, four years before the series of revolutions in Europe in 1848. If we add these four years to 2013, we get 2017, which will be the centenary of the 1917 revolution. If, on the centenary of the outbreak of the First World War, a war broke out in Ukraine, which many, including Pope Francis, already had, then why not admit that even a hundred years after the 1917 revolution, events could repeat themselves in one form or another? Moreover, a number of astrologers say that 2017 will become last year Putin's stay in power (calculations based on full cycle Lunar nodes, which is approximately 18.5 years - this is the approximate time of Putin's stay in power, starting in 1999). The same version is adhered to by political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, who calls it "Zoroastrian".

The second symptom of the impending Black Swan in 2013 was Putin's reform of the Academy of Sciences. The destruction of the most powerful intellectual egregor in the country could not but cause a mental counterstrike. Any action creates opposition. Even then, there were comparisons between Putin and Khrushchev, who was also preparing the defeat of the Academy of Sciences shortly before his overthrow. However, the prevailed, apparently, the version of Mussolini, just as harshly "reformed" the Italian Academy.

2014 has already become the year of the system's breakdown, which is obvious to everyone: Russia became a party to the military conflict in Ukraine, entered a new Cold war with the Western countries, gradually creeping into an economic crisis and isolationism, state-funded black hundreds appeared in the form of "Anti-Maidan", aggressive rhetoric against dissidents intensified, in fact, the green light was given to physical reprisals against oppositionists. I was back in September 2012 that 2014 will be the year of the Russian disaster, although in the early 2000s I saw this conflict corridor as a period from 2012 to 2014. Political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky in January 2014 that "the most anticipated event of 2014 is the war." Interpreters of Nostradamus war in Ukraine in 2014 back in the mid-1990s. But it is clear that many people predict a lot of things, and only when the "black swan" happened, those predictions that came true become visible.

Finally, take a look at 2015. As I wrote in my blog earlier, the Year of the Goat for Russia was often marked by turning points. 12 years ago, in 2003, Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested - after that, illusions about Putin disappeared from many, and the country gradually began to close down and move towards totalitarianism. 12 years ago, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and the GKChP putsch took place. 12 years ago, in 1979, the USSR invaded Afghanistan, which significantly undermined the country's authority in the world. What will happen this time? There are several scenarios for the development of events: the 2003 version (increased repression within the country), the 1991 version (a complete change of power and an attempted coup), the 1979 version (a full-scale invasion of Ukraine?). It can only be said unequivocally that all the options are bad, and all of them are associated with tightening the screws inside the country and the deterioration of the welfare and personal freedoms of the bulk of the population.

The people again started talking about the apocalyptic predictions of the Orthodox elders. I am one of them on February 19 in the article "Apocalyptic". Allegedly, a certain modern elder (in one of the monasteries of the North-West) predicted in advance not only the war in Ukraine, but also that two years after its start (in 2016?) territories, but then it will be reborn, and we will have an "Orthodox tsar". At first glance, this seems absolutely fantastic, but I admit that after a hundred years in Russia the monarchy can be restored, albeit in a constitutional form. However, there may be another option - with repetition in a reduced version Soviet history... According to this, Putin will retire in 2024, and Kadyrov-Stalin will replace him, only instead of the Marxist-Leninist ideology, the fundamentalist religion "Chrislam" (a mixture of Orthodoxy and Islam) will be implanted.

The only positive scenario for Russia's revival was on March 10. and it is associated with the appearance in the social and political life of a person of special moral and ethical qualities and high spiritual development, in other words, the moral authority and savior of a nation like Mahatma Gandhi or Jeanne D "Ark. This positive event should also have its" symptoms "by which one can recognize that this is a real prophet, and not a black magician or magician-imitator. So far these symptoms are absent, but they, of course, can appear at any time. Follow the broadcast! :)

»- a theory that considers difficult to predict and rare events that have significant consequences. The author of the theory is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who in his book "Black Swan" coined the term "Events of the type" black swan "".

From the point of view of the author, almost all significant scientific discoveries, historical and political events, achievements of art and culture are Black Swans. Examples of Black Swans are the development and adoption of the Internet, World War I, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the September 11 attack.

"Black Swan" is new idea, innovation. Innovation is something that has never been, something that is not described in the literature, something that is unknown to experts. The Black Swan is the person or group that promotes this innovation.

In a system where everything is allowed, except that it is forbidden "Black Swan" is not expected. And he, having arisen, begins to integrate into the system. The "black swan" in such a system is permitted and possible, since it is not registered as prohibited. Why not, and there are telephone, e-mail, Google, Facebook and so on. The system changes and becomes richer, larger and stronger, having absorbed the "Black Swan".

In a system where everything is forbidden except what is allowed, that is, a totalitarian system, the Black Swan is awaited to be banned and destroyed. The totalitarian system, the state seeks to stay in current state therefore everything new is an enemy for her.

In addition to formal laws, there are also traditions of society that shift real society into something in between. That is, even a free and democratic society is conservative and may not accept a new one for a long time. Erne Rubik and his company had been promoting their cube for several years before something moved thanks to happy coincidences.

And a totalitarian society does not always manage to quickly identify, recognize and completely destroy the "Black Swan" and its influence.

The arrival of the Black Swan is unexpected by definition. Before its occurrence, it simply does not exist, and the fact that it does not exist is very difficult to predict. The expected arrival is not a black swan by definition.

The most interesting thing is that the "Black Swan" cannot be predicted, but it can be created. That is, it is very difficult to predict when the USSR or Russia will collapse, it is easier to destroy it. Easier to ruin than to predict. It's easier to create something unseen than to predict that someone else will create it. It is even more difficult to create a timely "Black Swan", because there are postponed ones that appeared too early and therefore not accepted by society or did not break through a totalitarian society. That is, it makes sense to look for the "Black Swan" not in successful theories, in theories that have not been applied, not realized.

If something didn't work then, it might work now.

If something worked well yesterday, then it will definitely work badly tomorrow, because tomorrow is different from yesterday.

Personally, I personally consider myself a real "Black Swan" without false modesty, because what I do is impossible, and in such conditions in which I do it, it is absolutely impossible. Proof of this is this magazine.

The competent authorities appreciated this long ago and I "appreciated" their "work".

"People who were blindfolded driving a school bus (and crashing it) can't be trusted with a new bus."
"Do not give a stick of dynamite to children, even if you have warned them and provided them with instructions"- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

So, Black Swans are unpredictable events that give impetus to history and change the life of every person, whether he wants it or not. Taleb is convinced that success is directly related to how you handle these situations.

The central soap of the book is the danger of human blindness in relation to randomness, especially to large-scale ones. All of us are mostly focused on the little things, presumably believing that the big will come out of the small, and then the result will come. Everything is so, only it is easy to get bogged down in a small one, never reaching the big one. And if we put the question in the words of the author: "Why does reading a newspaper reduce our knowledge of the world?"

The main trait of the Black Swan is the unpredictability that determines the scale, and this applies to any activity. You need knowledge that no one else possesses except you. Taleb writes: If you know something (for example, that New York is an attractive target for terrorists) - your knowledge is devalued if the enemy knows the same.<…>This applies to any activity. Take the “secret recipe” for phenomenal success in the restaurant business. If it were known and obvious, someone would already have invented it, and it would become something trivial. To outrun everyone, you need to come up with an idea that is unlikely to occur to the current generation of restaurateurs. It should be completely unexpected.

And of course, you can forget about traditional predictions. Someone might say that it is stupid to stop predicting what will happen next, because this allows you to better understand tomorrow. There is nothing wrong with that, but a single event can destroy all predictions, and they will instantly become nothing. This is probably why science fiction writers sometimes guess better than professional specialists... Taleb states: We forecast oil deficits for thirty years, not realizing that we cannot know what they will be next summer. The cumulative errors in political and economic forecasts are so monstrous that when I look at their lists, I feel like pinching myself to make sure I am awake.

Yes, Black Swans are unpredictable, so you need to adapt to their existence, and the author offers this recipe: “We can achieve a lot if we focus on antiknowledge, that is, on what we don’t know. Among other things, you can tune in to catching happy Black Swans (those that have a positive effect), if possible going to meet them.<…>We will see that, contrary to the claims of social scientists, almost all important discoveries and technical inventions were not the result of strategic planning - they were just Black Swans. Scientists and business people should rely on planning as little as possible and improvise as much as possible to ensure they don't miss the chance. That is, all that is needed is to experiment more and not be afraid to deviate from the rules, turn traditional logic upside down and demonstrate how inapplicable it is to our current complex and increasingly recursive environment.

Also an important aspect of the book is the "game error". The bottom line is that games cannot be overused to simulate real-life situations. Here Taleb shows side effects human cognition. Uncertainty in real life has little to do with the sterile ambiguity we are used to seeing in games and exams. This principle is one of the main arguments and refutation of predictive mathematical models used to predict the future, and it is also an attack on the concepts of a naive and simplified statistical model in complex areas. According to the author, statistics work only in some areas, such as casinos, where the odds are visible and definite.

So, the results. What does it take to be successful?

1. It is necessary to distinguish "good" accidents from "bad". In film, science or venture capital deals, unpredictability can turn big win... But in areas where the inability to calculate risks is fraught with failure, you should be more careful. Service in the army, work in state security or insurance are precisely such areas - here you need to initially assume the possibility of dramatic events.

2. Do not pursue accuracy and specificity. Think wider and don't try to predict a specific Black Swan. Louis Pasteur, who argued that luck loves those who are ready for it, understood that people are not looking for something specific every day to discover - they are working hard to make room for a happy accident.

3. Look for meetings with the Black Swan, grab every opportunity. They happen much less often than we think: people often do not understand that they have a lucky break and miss it. If suddenly a publisher, owner of a reputable bank or a prominent scientist wants to meet with you, do not refuse - there may not be a second chance. Work as long as you want, but do not get bogged down in a routine, remember: persistence is great, limitation is deadly. And a big city is a double luck, there are more chances of unexpected meetings; it is a zone of concentrated randomness, and this is its advantage.

4. Beware of developed government plans, you should not rely on them. Think of the banks that hid explosive risks in their portfolios. Better to be on the alert.

5. Once Yogi Berra said: "There are people to whom you cannot explain anything if they have not yet understood it." Don't waste time wrestling with sociologists, stock analysts and forecasters, just ignore them. Especially beware of the words "equilibrium" and "normal distribution".

You can study the theory in more detail in Taleb's books "Fooled by chance" and "Black Swan". There he talks about specific life examples: they explain the theory and show what to do with it. The most striking and unconditional case that excited the whole world is the prediction of the 2008 global financial crisis. During this time, Taleb earned several million dollars, and explained this by the use of statistical methods in the field of finance. According to Michael Bloomberg, Taleb's "Black Swan" theory helped investors earn half a billion dollars.

In an article in The Times, Bryan Appleyard named Taleb the most outstanding thinker in the world today.

The Black Swan in the context of symbolism

They write that The black swan is a bird of the genus Cygnus of the duck family (Anatidae). Until the 18th century, it was unknown to science.

Australian black swan on the wave
As if in a fairy tale in a picture, it is visible to me.

The real one floats before me
All serpentine, all patterned, carved.

And truly brings the dream into play
Real jumping kangaroos.

And in a stored enchanted pool
The lotuses are shining in a damp flower garden.

The slender trunk of the eucalyptus turns blue,
A bush of unprecedented acacia blossomed.

Like a hummingbird, the honey sucker fell to the flower,
The flute bird whirled longing.

And the kingfishers laugh at the branches,
As if in a fairy tale that we were told in childhood.

Only this is all just a small corner, -
Louder than the singing of birds in the factory, the horn.

There is no Australia of those children today,
All burned up between smoke and fires.

The rails slammed into the sweep of the yellow mountains
Shackled, entangled, all calculated, space.

Where the black ones danced a harmonious dance, -
A lone white-faced boo-herd.

Where the fast kangaroo played -
Sheep, sheep, morning and evening.

A crowd of millions of them passed here,
Their bodies are locked in refrigerators.

The frozen corpses will be taken away
New sheep graze here and there.

And from city to city always
The trains howl, scattering soot.

And from street to street a whistle, -
All the music of the white man is a whistle.

They themselves have chosen such a destiny,
That their white face had turned so filthy gray.

They deprived the whole region with their crowd.
Black swan, singing a farewell song.

“People are often mistaken when making predictions based on what they know about the past. Believing that the future is a reflection of the past, we are mistaken, because many unknown factors go against our assumptions.

Example. Imagine that you are a turkey on a farm. Over the years, the farmer has fed, nurtured and nurtured you. Based on the past, there is no reason to expect change. Alas, on Thanksgiving you were beheaded, fried and eaten".
<...>

Sometimes events are surprising, not because they are random, but because our worldview is too narrow. Such surprises are called "black swans" and can force us to reconsider the picture of the world.

Thank you dralexmd for a tip

Human talent is to turn all signals environment into meaningful information. This made it possible to create a scientific method, philosophize about the nature of life and invent complex mathematical models.

Our ability to think about and manage the world does not mean that we are good at it. We tend to think narrowly in our ideas about him. Having come to any judgment, we cling to it with a dead grip.

Human knowledge is constantly increasing, and such a dogmatic approach is not effective. Two hundred years ago, doctors and scientists were absolutely confident in their knowledge of medicine, but just imagine that, turning to a doctor with complaints of a runny nose, you are prescribed a prescription for leeches!

Confidence in judgments forces us to deduce concepts outside the framework of the system of concepts that we have accepted as true. How to understand medicine without knowing about the existence of microbes? You can think of a reasonable explanation for the disease, but it will be erroneous due to the lack of important information.

This kind of thinking can lead to unexpected surprises. Sometimes events are surprising not because they are random, but because our worldview is too narrow. Such surprises are called "black swans" and can force us to reconsider the picture of the world.

Before a person first saw a black swan, everyone assumed that they were only white. White was considered an integral part of them. Seeing a black swan, people radically changed the idea of this bird. Black swans are as common as swans white, and as fatal as bankruptcy due to the fall of the stock market.

Black Swans can have life-changing consequences for those who are blind to them

The black swan effect is not the same for everyone. Some may be seriously hurt by it, while others will not even notice it. Access to relevant information is important: the less you know, the greater the risk of falling prey to the black swan.
Example. Imagine that at the races you bet on your favorite horse named Rocket. Because of the horse's physique, roster of awards, jockey prowess and lackluster competition, you are betting all your money on it to win. Now imagine your surprise when the Rocket not only did not run after the start, but chose to just lie down. This is the "black swan". Given the information available, Rocket should have won, but somehow you lost all your money. On the contrary, the owner of Rocket got rich by betting against her. Unlike you, he knew Rocket would go on strike to protest animal cruelty. This knowledge saved him from the "black swan".

The influence of "black swans" can affect not only individuals, but entire societies... In such cases, the "black swan" can change the world, influencing, for example, philosophy, theology and physics.

Example. Copernicus suggested that the Earth is not the center of the universe, and the consequences were colossal: the discovery called into question both the authority of the ruling Catholics and the Bible itself.

Subsequently, this "black swan" laid the foundation for a new European society.

It is very easy to confuse us with even elementary logical errors.

People often make the mistake of making a prediction based on what they know about the past. Thinking that the future is a reflection of the past, we are mistaken, because many unknown factors go against our assumptions.

Making predictions based on the past, we are wrong, and this leads to serious consequences. A similar misconception is cognitive bias, when we look for evidence only of pre-existing beliefs.

We do not accept information that is contrary to what we already believe and are unlikely to conduct further research. But if we decide to figure it out, we will look for sources that dispute this information.

Example. If you firmly believe that "climate change" is a conspiracy, and then see a documentary called "Indisputable Proofs of Climate Change," you are likely to be very upset. And if you search for information on the Internet, in your search terms you will indicate "climate change is a hoax", not "evidence for and against climate change."

That is, we unwittingly draw the wrong conclusions: it is inherent in our nature.

Our brains groups information in a way that makes it difficult to make accurate predictions.

In the course of evolution, the human brain has learned to classify information. But when we need to learn and quickly adapt to a dangerous environment, this method is completely useless.

Misclassification of information is called false storytelling: a person creates linear descriptions current situation. Due to the huge amount of information we receive on a daily basis, our brain only selects the information it considers important.

Example. You probably remember what you ate for breakfast, but you can hardly name the color of the shoes of every passenger on the subway.

To give meaning to information, we link it. So when you think about your life, you mark certain events as meaningful and build them into a narrative that explains how you became who you are.

Example. You love music because your mom sang to you before bed.

It is impossible to fully understand the world in this way. The process works only with an eye to the past and does not take into account the almost limitless interpretation of any event. Even tiny events can have unpredictable, important consequences.

Example. A butterfly flapping its wings in India causes a hurricane in New York a month later.

If we arrange causes and effects in the order of their occurrence, then we see a clear, cause-and-effect relationship between events. But since we see only the result - a hurricane - we can only guess which of the simultaneously occurring events actually influenced such an outcome.

It is difficult for us to distinguish between scalable and non-scalable information

We do not distinguish very well between the types of information - "scalable" and "non-scalable". The difference between them is fundamental.

Non-scalable information such as weight or height has a statistical upper and lower limit. That is, the body weight is not scalable, since there are physical limitations: it is impossible to weigh 4500 kg. Limiting the parameters of such non-scalable information allows predictions about mean values.

But non-physical or fundamentally abstract things, such as wealth distribution or album sales, are scalable.

Example. If the album is sold through iTunes, the number of sales is notlimit: it is not limited by the volume of physical copies. And since the transactions take place online, there is no shortage of physical currency, and nothing stands in the way of selling trillions of albums.

The difference between scalable and non-scalable information is critical to seeing an accurate picture of the world. If rules that are effective for non-scalable information are applied to scalable information, errors will occur.

Example. You want to measure the wealth of the population of England. The easiest way is to calculate wealth per capita by adding up income and dividing it by the number of citizens. However, wealth is scalable: a tiny percentage of the population can own incredible a large percentage wealth.

Per capita income data will not reflect the real state of affairs in your income distribution.

We're too sure of what we think is famous

Everyone wants to keep themselves out of danger. One way is to assess and manage risks. So we buy insurance and try not to put all our eggs in one basket.

Most make every effort to assess risks as accurately as possible, so as not to miss out on opportunities and at the same time not do something that can be regretted. To do this, you need to assess all the risks, and then the likelihood that these risks will materialize.

Example. Let's say you are going to buy insurance, but without wasting money. Then it is necessary to assess the threat of illness or accident and make an informed decision.

Unfortunately, we are convinced that we know all the possible risks from which we must protect ourselves. This is a game error: we tend to react to risk as a game with a set of rules and probabilities that can be determined before it begins.

It is very dangerous to view risk in this way.

Example. Casinos want to earn as much as possible more money, therefore we have developed a security system and will disqualify players who win too much and often. But their approach is based on a game error. The main threat to the casino is not the lucky ones or the thieves, but the kidnappers who take the casino owner's child hostage, or the employee who has not submitted his income tax return to the IRS. The serious dangers to casinos are completely unpredictable.

It doesn't matter how hard we try. It is impossible to accurately predict any risk.

Why is it necessary to be aware of your ignorance?

By understanding that there is much you don’t know, you will be better able to assess risks.

Everyone knows the phrase: "Knowledge is power." But when knowledge is limited, it is more beneficial to admit it.

By focusing only on what you know, you limit your perception of all possible outcomes of a given event, creating fertile ground for the emergence of the "black swan".

Example. You want to buy shares in a company, but you know too little about the stock market. In this case, you will see several ups and downs, but in general, only notice that the trends are positive. Assuming the situation continues, you spend all your money on stocks. The next day the market crashes and you lose everything you had.

By studying the topic a little better, you would see numerous ups and downs in the market throughout history. By focusing only on what we know, we are exposing ourselves to serious risks.

Admitting that you don't know something can significantly reduce your risk.

Example. Good poker players know this principle is critical to the success of the game. They understand that their opponents' cards can be better, but they also know that there is certain information that they do not know - for example, the opponent's strategy and the degree of his determination to go all the way.

Aware of the presence of unknown factors, players focus exclusively on their cards, better assessing the possible risks.

The concept of limitations will help us make the right choice.

The best defense against cognitive traps is to have a good understanding of predictive tools and their limitations. While this may not save you from a miss, it will help reduce the number of bad decisions.

Once you recognize that you are prone to cognitive biases, it is much easier to realize that you are looking for information to support pre-existing claims. Or, knowing that people like to boil things down to clear, causal narratives, you will tend to look for additional information to better understand the big picture.

You need to be aware of your shortcomings.

Example. If you understand that there are always unforeseen risks, despite the promise of an opportunity, you will be more careful about investing large amounts of money in it.

It is impossible to overcome all accidents or our limitations in understanding the complexity of the world, but you can at least mitigate the damage caused by ignorance.

The most important thing

Although we constantly make predictions, we are bad at it. We are too confident in our knowledge and underestimate our ignorance. Failure to understand and define randomness and even our very nature contribute to unsuccessful decision-making and the emergence of "black swans", that is, events that seem impossible and force us to rethink the understanding of the world.

Be suspicious of “because”. Instead of wanting to see events in clear causation, consider a range of possibilities without dwelling on one.

Realize that you don't know something. For meaningful forecasts for the future, whether it is buying insurance, investing, changing jobs, and so on, it is not enough to take into account everything “known” to you - this gives only a partial understanding of the risks. Instead, acknowledge that you don’t know something so as not to unnecessarily limit the information you are dealing with.