Forecasts on deposits for the year. Destinations

The panic of the population regarding the availability of money on deposits due to sanctions led to an outflow of funds from the banking system. In September, the net outflow of citizens' funds from banks reached almost 500 billion rubles, as a result, according to the results of nine months, the growth in deposits amounted to only 3.5%. The Central Bank hopes that the outflow will be short-term, and so far they do not change the forecast - an inflow of 7-9% per year. But experts are sure that it will not be possible to achieve such results, and the net outflow of deposits from banks will continue for another couple of months, until the announcement of the US decision on sanctions. As a result, at the end of the year, the rate of inflow of citizens' funds into the system may turn out to be the lowest in the last ten years.

The Bank of Russia has summed up the preliminary results for the banking sector for nine months. By October 1, the volume of funds of individuals in the banking system amounted to 26.9 trillion rubles. (taking into account currency revaluation), having increased by only 3.5% since the beginning of the year. At the end of August, the picture was much more positive - an increase in the funds of individuals in the banking system by 5.3%. In September, the net outflow of household funds from banks amounted to 496 billion rubles. Excluding currency revaluation, the inflow of citizens' funds into the system over the nine months was even lower - only 1.7%, while a negative trend was observed both in August (-0.6%) and in September (-0.8%). Even the actions of state-owned banks to raise rates on foreign currency deposits did not help, as well as a slight, but an increase in maximum rates on ruble deposits of the largest banks - from 6.3 to 6.7% in August-September (according to the monitoring of the Central Bank).

Growth of deposits is predicted from 7% to 9%. I think it will be closer to 9% than 7%

The reason for the outflow of deposits is the fears of citizens about the fate of their funds in state-owned banks, especially in foreign currency, against the backdrop of possible tough US sanctions announced in August. In particular, they provide for the option of banning Sberbank, VTB, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, Vnesheconombank from settlements in US dollars.

The situation was aggravated in September by the statements of VTB President Andrey Kostin. Trying to reduce the intensity of passions, he assured that "all customers of all banks will be able to get their money back." But the subsequent clause “how it will be done, in what currency is another question” gave new grounds for speculation. The statements of the authorities at all levels, as well as the Central Bank that there are no plans to convert dollars of deposits into rubles (see Kommersant on September 17) failed to calm the population. “Citizens’ fears that in the event of strict US sanctions against state-owned banks, their money may hang in their accounts, and the general uncertainty, exacerbated by de-dollarization and its consequences that are not very clear to ordinary people, remains,” says ACRA analyst Valery Piven. “How long this will continue, it is difficult to predict, the US decision on sanctions in November may bring clarity to the situation.”

However, the Central Bank is not inclined to panic. “Such a downward trend in deposits that you noticed in August-September, in our opinion, is short-term,” said Vasily Pozdyshev, deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia on October 9. “In the next quarter, we expect an increase in household deposits in banks.” At what level, he did not specify, the Central Bank did not answer the question of whether the regulator intends to change its forecast. It was introduced back in May - the growth of deposits was 7-9% at the end of the year, but "closer to 9%."

However, experts are sure that these figures are already unattainable. “7-9% is an unrealistic forecast, I would assume that we will see an increase of 1-2 percentage points relative to the current increase,” says Valery Piven. According to Aleksey Antonenko, an analyst at Alor Broker Investment Company, it will be almost impossible for the deposit market to achieve the Central Bank's forecast for the remaining two and a half months. “An annual increase of 2-2.5% is more realistic, taking into account currency revaluation,” he believes. “Even if banks continue to raise deposit rates, the population is too depressed by the decline in real incomes and a possible fall in the ruble, as well as rumors about new sanctions” . Against this background, people prefer to make savings in the form of a multi-currency basket, and in cash, the expert concludes.

If the worst forecasts come true, then this year the rate of inflow of household funds into the banking system may turn out to be the worst in the last ten years.

So far, the lowest result was recorded in 2016 - 4.2%, taking into account currency revaluation, according to the Central Bank.

However, in general, experts are not inclined to dramatize. “The situation for the sector, even taking into account the outflow of deposits, is not dangerous,” Alexander Danilov, senior director of the Fitch Ratings banking analytical group, is sure. “Banks have more than enough liquidity reserves, and in the event of a negative scenario, they can count on the support of the Central Bank. In a few months, people will calm down, and the flow of their funds into the system will resume.”

Ksenia Dementieva

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation again lowered the key rate following the results of the last meeting - to 7.25%. As you know, along with the key rate, rates on loans and deposits are progressively “falling”. Banki.ru asked the experts whether the Russians should wait for the regulator's policy to lower rates down to negative values.

6 and 66

On March 23, 2018, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will lower the key rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 7.25%. The regulator has been steadily lowering the key rate since mid-2014 - at that time it was 17%.

In fact, the market expected another small reduction in the key rate. The day before the meeting of the Central Bank, experts say that the regulator will “drop” the rate by exactly 0.25 p.p.

Traditionally, along with the key rate, rates on loans and deposits also fall. For example, the average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks on ruble deposits has recently reached its next historical anti-record, reaching a value of 6.66% per annum.

According to the Banki.ru database, the maximum rates in Russian banks now reach 8.5% per annum. This rate is available on deposits "" of Creditinvest Bank, "" from Loko-Bank, "" from IQ Bank, "" from Absolut Bank and for some others. However, it should be borne in mind that usually such a rate can be obtained by placing a significant amount on the deposit or opening spin-off products, such as investment life insurance.

It won't go to zero

Russians have been putting their money into deposits without much excitement for a long time, recalling with nostalgia the double-digit yield offered by credit institutions a few years ago.

Mikhail Krylov, director of the analytical department of the consulting company Golden Hills Kapital AM, believes that if banks reduce rates following the Central Bank, then investment companies and hedge funds will become more attractive options for citizens to invest.

“For this reason, negative rates on deposits in Russia are impossible - at such rates, owners of large accounts will leave banks, which will hit the liquidity of credit institutions severely. In addition, deposits in Russia and now do not have an attractive yield. Indeed, there are negative deposit rates in several banks in Switzerland, but for not very large amounts, and there is a different level of risk,” says Krylov.

At the same time, Roman Tsivinyuk, vice-president, head of SMP Bank's retail division, points out that the prospect of zero or negative deposit rates for individuals on the Russian market does not look realistic. Mainly because deposits remain the basis of savings for most bank customers: there is an alternative to them, and now the demand for various investment products is growing. But the choice of alternative instruments is not so wide as to completely replace deposits for mass clients.

“Assuming that the rates are zero, then many customers will prefer to simply keep the money in the form of cash. Such a scenario is unlikely to suit both the clients themselves, and the banks, and the regulator. Therefore, I would not seriously discuss the prospect of zero or negative deposit rates in Russia,” says Tsivinyuk.

“The easing of monetary policy can, of course, continue to negative interest rates, but the likelihood of such a scenario is extremely low,” said Tatyana Kovaleva, head of the rating service of the National Rating Agency (NRA). - The appearance of negative rates in Russia is not ruled out in the context of deflation, which is unrealistic in the foreseeable future. But in a deflationary environment, even a negative nominal rate still does not rule out a positive real rate.”

Negative deposit rates are the "lot" of Europe, experts say.

“Negative deposit rates are in Germany, the Scandinavian countries, Switzerland - these are countries with a high propensity to save among the population. Actually, for residents, the rate there, as a rule, is not negative, but equal to zero, while settlement services become paid, - comments Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency. - Demand for time deposits in these countries has fallen. Actually, the goal there was to direct savings into non-government bonds and the stock market - directly or through analogues of mutual funds. On the other hand, inertia and fear of risks lead to the fact that even at a zero rate, money is still held.”

At the same time, Tabakh considers it unlikely that deposit rates will go negative for Russia. As one of the arguments, he cites the fact that in the United States, where inflation, unlike the eurozone, is not zero, deposit rates are also positive. In addition, Tabakh believes that the Russian depositor is accustomed to living in the paradigm of positive rates and, in the event of a negative rate, will keep money “under the mattress”.

The introduction of a negative interest rate on bank deposits is a temporary and rather radical anti-crisis measure used as one of the stimulators of economic growth, recalls Tatiana Kovaleva.

“In 2008-2016, against the background of the global crisis, the policy of negative interest rates was introduced on a temporary or long-term basis in countries such as Sweden, Japan, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands,” she lists. - Also in 2014, the European Central Bank introduced negative rates (that is, the policy was introduced within the European Union). In the case of deposits, negative rates are "prohibitive" in nature. Their goal is to encourage banks to issue loans and lower interest rates on household deposits, which should force people to spend money, not save.”

“Despite the fact that rates in Russia have fallen significantly, there is now a positive real return on deposits, that is, the rate on deposits is higher than the inflation rate. Thus, at present, annual inflation is below 4%, while annual deposit rates are at the level of 7%. That is, in principle, there is a large enough margin for reduction, - explains Anton Pavlov, Managing Director for Retail Products of Absolut Bank. - At the same time, if inflation is above 4%, then the regulator will most likely be forced to suspend the decline. Therefore, real interest rates on deposits are unlikely to go negative in the near future.”

Rates will drop, but not much

Experts interviewed by Banki.ru reassure: in their opinion, deposit rates will lose 0.5 percentage points in the foreseeable future. At the same time, many banks lowered them even before the current decision of the Central Bank on the key rate.

“In our opinion, based on the latest decisions to reduce the key rate, deposit rates may decrease by 0.25 percentage points in April, and by another 0.25 by July 2018. It is likely that some banks will cut rates by 0.5 percentage points at a time. At the same time, the reduction in interest rates on loans will not be so significant, which will allow banks to maintain an acceptable level of interest margin,” predicts Tatyana Kovaleva from the NRA.

She adds that the arguments in favor of further rate cuts are still weak economic growth in Russia and the stagnation of corporate sector lending against the backdrop of declining inflationary expectations.

“Decrease in deposit rates is approximately proportional to the decrease in the key rate. But banks do not always wait for the revision of the key rate. And by the meeting on March 23, some market participants have already adjusted the yield on deposits. In this case, the decline is uneven. For example, for deposits with a term of more than a year, as a rule, a lower rate is set based on the reduction that should occur during the period of the deposit. For a short period of time, banks are more courageous in attracting funds from the population from the market,” says Anton Pavlov from Absolut Bank.

“Reducing the key rate was quite expected, and the market has already won back this event: the largest banks have been adjusting deposit rates since the beginning of the month,” agrees Roman Tsivinyuk, vice president of SMP Bank. - We see this in the example of the average maximum rate on ruble deposits of the top 10 largest banks in terms of individual deposits - in the second decade of March, it fell to 6.66% per annum. In the near future, medium and small credit institutions will follow the market leaders. In general, the reduction in rates on ruble deposits after the key rate cut, according to our estimates, will amount to 0.25-0.5 percentage points, depending on the customer segment.”

Tsivinyuk also points out: there is no reason to believe that the Central Bank will stop cutting the key rate. "Taking into account low inflation, the trend to reduce the key rate continues, we do not see any prerequisites for a change in the trend," he clarifies.

At the same time, Pavlov predicts that if the current economic situation continues, the key rate may drop to 6% by the end of the year.

The same forecast was made on March 23 by Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Chairman of the Board of the Association of Banks of Russia. The deputy considers the decision taken by the regulator to reduce the rate to 7.25% more than justified and sets new guidelines for its further reduction.

Anna DUBROVSKAYA, site

Aksakov: “I hope that this year the key rate will be able to approach 6%”

For economic entities, not only the absolute value of the rate is important, but also the trend towards its consistent reduction indicated by the Bank of Russia, emphasizes Anatoly Aksakov.

Despite the decrease in the key rate last Friday from 8.25% to 7.75% per annum, before the New Year, banks keep ruble deposits with rates above 8% per annum. But this phenomenon is temporary, the profitability of ruble deposits in 2018 will continue to decline, bankers and experts are sure. Indeed, in January, many banks will complete the acceptance of seasonal deposits with higher rates.

The reasons for the decline are standard: a record reduction in inflation and the key rate, says Yury Gribanov, CEO of Frank Research Group.

After the December drop in the key rate in January-February, we can expect a reduction in ruble deposit rates for up to a year by the same 0.5 percentage points, says Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Binbank. Sberbank does not rule out a reduction in its rates on deposits in the near future, its president German Gref said yesterday, the bank always changes rates after the key one.

Yulia Demenyuk, Deputy Head of the Retail Products Department at VTB, also speaks about a gradual decrease in ruble rates by 0.5 percentage points during 2018.

But, according to Gribanov, if next year it is possible to keep inflation below 5% per annum, the key rate can be reduced by 1-2 percentage points, then ruble deposit rates will also decrease by the same amount. In some banks, rates for the next year may fall to 4% per annum, he fears. According to Vashchelyuk, by the end of 2018, the average deposit rates for up to a year will be 5-5.5% per annum, and for deposits for more than a year - 5.5-6%.

But a sharp decrease in rates should not be expected, since profitability is now at the lowest levels in history, Galina Utkina, vice president of Renaissance Credit, is sure.

Currency rate

As for the deposit rates in foreign currency, they, according to experts, will most likely balance at the current values. Gribanov expects "small multidirectional fluctuations" depending primarily on the Fed rate and the ruble exchange rate.

According to many currency market analysts, next year the ruble will rather weaken than strengthen. Against him are the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, and possibly the ECB, the next portion of sanctions expected in February, the inflationary expectations of the Russians, lists Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the Alpari analytical department. For a strong ruble - stable oil prices, economic growth.

“Even with an increase in the Fed rate, interest on dollar deposits will grow slightly,” Vashchelyuk is sure. “Foreign currency lending continues to decline, including thanks to the Central Bank’s measures to dedollarize the economy.” Demand for currency liquidity is still low, agrees Tatyana Ushkova, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank.

Vashchelyuk believes that the average dollar rates on deposits up to one year (except for deposits "on demand") by the end of 2018 will be in the corridor of 0.8-1%, more than a year - will be about 1.5%. Rates on deposits in euros are less than 0.5% and from 0.5 to 1%, respectively.

What should a depositor do

Based on such forecasts, bankers advise clients not to postpone the placement of annual premiums and bonuses on the back burner and, until rates become even lower, place rubles in deposits.

When rates are falling, it is better to open deposits for a longer period in order to fix the profitability for a long time, remind Demenyuk and Ushkova.

Ushkova advises to keep a third of the funds "in another currency." “Despite the fact that rates on deposits in foreign currency are at a low level, clients have the opportunity to receive additional income due to exchange rate changes,” she recalls.

Kokoreva advises leaving about 20% in rubles, while investing 50% in euros, “because, in our opinion, the ruble will weaken against this currency a little faster than against the dollar,” and the remaining 30% into the dollar. According to Alpari's forecast, the average dollar exchange rate in 2018 will be 58.5–59.5 rubles/$ (+1 ruble to the current exchange rate), and the euro – 70–71.5 rubles. (+0.5–2 rubles).

“Deposits are now more of a store of value than an investment. Taking into account the rates on them, this is a stash that is not stored under the pillow, but at least with some kind of profitability. It is now impossible to increase capital with the help of deposits, but on the other hand, on deposits for up to a year, you can save money for urgent purposes,” adds Natalya Smirnova, CEO of the Personal Advisor company.

Although deposit rates will continue to fall, this is still one of the least risky instruments for conservative investors, Kokoreva said.

attack of the clones

Due to the decrease in the profitability of deposits, banks will have to look for other tools and products to retain the funds of the population, bankers admit.

Sberbank, VTB, RSHB this year tested the sale of their own bonds through offices to individuals in small amounts (from 50,000 rubles).

Next year, banks will continue to actively promote savings accounts, Demenyuk said. In case of early withdrawal of funds, the previously accrued interest on them does not burn out, replenishment and withdrawal of funds is allowed at any time without restrictions, there is practically no input threshold for the amount.

And according to Gribanov, also next year "profitable" cards - with interest on the balance - both debit and credit, will be popular. “The interest on such cards can be quite high, while they do not limit the client in using funds, unlike a deposit. In addition, they often have loyalty programs,” he explains.

True, both savings accounts and income cards have a significant drawback. The bank can reduce interest on them unilaterally or even cancel them altogether. To do this, it is enough for the bank to notify the product holder about the change in tariffs, for example, by a message on the website.

In addition, alternative instruments for investing funds, in particular investment life insurance, have recently been gaining popularity, Ushkova recalls, now the entry threshold for them has significantly decreased - up to hundreds of thousands of rubles, products have become simpler and more understandable.

Rates* of ruble deposits without partial withdrawal of funds, % per annum

Rates* of dollar deposits without partial withdrawal of funds, % per annum

Even in a difficult economic situation in 2019, there is an opportunity to invest money in such a way as to earn. One of the ways is to arrange a profitable deposit for individuals. But which of the most reliable banks in Russia today has the highest interest on deposits? The website agency experts analyzed the proposals of the largest banks in the country, compiling a review of deposits in rubles with favorable interest rates.

Deposits of individuals - a traditional way of investing money

There are many ways to invest money to earn passive income. You can buy a currency and wait for it to rise in price, you can earn money on Forex, invest in a PAMM account, try to earn income by trading binary options and much more.

All these ways of making money bring fairly high profits, but they are also associated with a certain risk. Bank deposits of individuals today remain the most reliable and traditional way of investing savings in Russia.

Choosing the most profitable deposit: what to look for

When choosing a bank to entrust money to, depositors, as a rule, pay attention to at least two parameters:

• - the size of the interest rate, which allows you to choose a deposit with the maximum income;
• - reliability of the bank, which allows you not to worry about the safety of savings even during a banking crisis.

It can be quite difficult to combine a high interest rate and sufficient bank reliability. Analysts of the agency website tried to do this by examining the conditions for deposits in Russian rubles for individuals in reliable banks.

What deposits in reliable Russian banks are the most profitable today

Each bank has its own line of profitable deposits for individuals with unique conditions.

In order to somehow bring the parameters of deposits in different banks “to a common denominator”, we tried to find out what the highest interest rates in rubles are offered to those who intend to open a deposit today, in 2019.

For the purity of the experiment, we compared the rates in the largest Russian banks on deposits for a period of 12 months, since this is the most popular investment period. As a result, the following list was obtained (check the exact conditions and interest rates on deposits with banks).

The most profitable deposits in reliable Russian banks from the top 10

Credit Bank of Moscow

MEGA Online deposit

Replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Calculation of interest monthly.

Bank FK Otkritie

Deposit "Reliable"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

Sovcombank

Deposit "Super Summer with Halva"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Accrual of interest at the end of the term.

Alfa Bank

Contribution "Even higher"

Replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Accrual of interest at the end of the term.

Growth Time contribution

No replenishment / No partial withdrawal / No capitalization / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

Post-bank

Deposit "Capital"

No replenishment / No partial withdrawal / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

See the maximum interest rates on deposits in Moscow banks >>

The main types of deposits of individuals

Today, Moscow banks offer a large number of different types of profitable deposits for individuals. But all of them can be divided into several groups:

Term deposits at the highest interest rates. By opening such a deposit, you give the bank your money for a certain period (3-6 months, 1 year or 3 years), and at this time you cannot take it back without losing interest or replenish your account.

Replenished deposits of individuals. By opening such a deposit, the depositor can save money by replenishing the account, and at the same time interest increases. However, it is impossible to withdraw funds from the account and not lose profitability.

Deposits with partial withdrawal of funds without loss of interest. Such deposits usually have the lowest interest rates. But they make it possible to withdraw part of the funds up to a pre-negotiated minimum balance, on the amount of which interest will be charged.

Of course, in any unforeseen situation, if you need money before the end of the deposit, you can always get it, but it will be a pity for the lost profit. So, when you are going to make a deposit in a bank, it is better to decide in advance when you will withdraw money so as not to lose income.

The Central Bank seems to have paused for a long time with the reduction of the key rate. This approach of the regulator looks logical after several government decisions that led to a significant increase in inflation expectations.

The position of the Central Bank calms depositors who are tired of the constant drop in deposit rates, since now the yield on deposits will remain at the same level for some time. For borrowers, on the contrary, the regulator's pause is a negative factor, since now it is not necessary to expect cheaper loans.

Ruble deposits

Representatives of Russian Standard argue that no major changes are expected until the end of the year, since the Central Bank decided to postpone the reduction of the key rate. The bank's analysts predict that the key rate will remain unchanged until the end of the year; accordingly, the profitability of ruble deposits will remain at the same level. Improving conditions for depositors is possible only with seasonal promotions or when individual credit institutions need to replenish their own liquidity.

A similar opinion is shared by Post Bank. Retail business development director Grigory Babadzhanyan predicts that in September the profitability of ruble deposits will generally not change. But for foreign currency deposits, a slight decrease in rates is possible, since the Central Bank is pursuing a policy of de-dollarization of the economy, within the framework of which there has been an increase in FOR for foreign currency liabilities.

Representatives of Zenith Bank believe that in the near future there will be no sharp changes in the market, but a slight upward correction (up to 0.25%) may affect short-term deposits.

VTB believes that there will be no significant changes in the market in September. Yulia Demenyuk, Senior Vice President and Deputy Head of the Retail Products Department, substantiates this forecast by the fact that the Central Bank again left the key rate unchanged.

Currency deposits

Forecasts regarding dollar and euro deposits are not so unanimous, on this issue the opinions of bankers differ noticeably. For example, Russian Standard believes that the new rules of the Central Bank will lead to a slight decrease in foreign currency deposit rates. The bank's forecast, of course, mentions the policy of de-dollarization of the economy pursued by the regulator.

A more optimistic forecast for depositors is given by Zenit Bank and Post Bank. The experts of these financial institutions believe that the profitability of foreign currency deposits will remain unchanged.

And experts from the MinBank are still talking about the possibility of making money on foreign currency deposits, despite the low rates. Representatives of the financial institution claim that this summer the profitability of their foreign currency deposits has increased. Taking into account the decision of the Central Bank from the beginning of August to increase by 1% the reserve requirements for bank liabilities in foreign currency, the rates of foreign currency deposits in September will remain at the same level.

In September, the MinBank is going to offer rates on dollar deposits in the range of 0.1-1.5%, on euro deposits at the level of 0.05-0.65%. The exact yield depends on the amount of funds placed and the period for which the depositor entrusts his currency to the bank. The credit institution reminds that the yield on foreign currency deposits depends not only on the established rate, but also on exchange rate fluctuations. During periods when the ruble weakens sharply against the dollar and the euro, you can make good money on foreign currency deposits.