Forecast on interest rates on deposits. Due to fear of new sanctions, citizens withdraw funds from banks

Despite the decrease in the key rate last Friday from 8.25% to 7.75% per annum, before the New Year, banks keep ruble deposits with rates above 8% per annum. But this phenomenon is temporary, the profitability of ruble deposits in 2018 will continue to decline, bankers and experts are sure. Indeed, in January, many banks will complete the acceptance of seasonal deposits with higher rates.

The reasons for the decline are standard: a record reduction in inflation and the key rate, says Yury Gribanov, CEO of Frank Research Group.

After the December drop in the key rate in January-February, we can expect a reduction in ruble deposit rates for up to a year by the same 0.5 percentage points, says Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Binbank. Sberbank does not rule out a reduction in its rates on deposits in the near future, its president German Gref said yesterday, the bank always changes rates after the key one.

Yulia Demenyuk, Deputy Head of the Retail Products Department at VTB, also speaks about a gradual decrease in ruble rates by 0.5 percentage points during 2018.

But, according to Gribanov, if next year it is possible to keep inflation below 5% per annum, the key rate can be reduced by 1-2 percentage points, then ruble deposit rates will also decrease by the same amount. In some banks, rates for the next year may fall to 4% per annum, he fears. According to Vashchelyuk, by the end of 2018, the average deposit rates for up to a year will be 5-5.5% per annum, and for deposits for more than a year - 5.5-6%.

But a sharp decrease in rates should not be expected, since profitability is now at the lowest levels in history, Galina Utkina, vice president of Renaissance Credit, is sure.

Currency rate

As for the deposit rates in foreign currency, they, according to experts, will most likely balance at the current values. Gribanov expects "small multidirectional fluctuations" depending primarily on the Fed rate and the ruble exchange rate.

According to many currency market analysts, next year the ruble will rather weaken than strengthen. Against him are the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, and possibly the ECB, the next portion of sanctions expected in February, the inflationary expectations of the Russians, lists Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of the Alpari analytical department. For a strong ruble - stable oil prices, economic growth.

“Even with an increase in the Fed rate, interest on dollar deposits will grow slightly,” Vashchelyuk is sure. “Foreign currency lending continues to decline, including thanks to the Central Bank’s measures to dedollarize the economy.” Demand for currency liquidity is still low, agrees Tatyana Ushkova, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank.

Vashchelyuk believes that the average dollar rates on deposits up to one year (except for deposits "on demand") by the end of 2018 will be in the corridor of 0.8-1%, more than a year - will be about 1.5%. Rates on deposits in euros are less than 0.5% and from 0.5 to 1%, respectively.

What should a depositor do

Based on such forecasts, bankers advise clients not to postpone the placement of annual premiums and bonuses on the back burner and, until rates become even lower, place rubles in deposits.

When rates are falling, it is better to open deposits for a longer period in order to fix the profitability for a long time, remind Demenyuk and Ushkova.

Ushkova advises to keep a third of the funds "in another currency." “Despite the fact that rates on deposits in foreign currency are at a low level, clients have the opportunity to receive additional income due to exchange rate changes,” she recalls.

Kokoreva advises leaving about 20% in rubles, while investing 50% in euros, “because, in our opinion, the ruble will weaken against this currency a little faster than against the dollar,” and the remaining 30% into the dollar. According to Alpari's forecast, the average dollar exchange rate in 2018 will be 58.5–59.5 rubles/$ (+1 ruble to the current exchange rate), and the euro – 70–71.5 rubles. (+0.5–2 rubles).

“Deposits are now more of a store of value than an investment. Taking into account the rates on them, this is a stash that is not stored under the pillow, but at least with some kind of profitability. It is now impossible to increase capital with the help of deposits, but on the other hand, on deposits for up to a year, you can save money for urgent purposes,” adds Natalya Smirnova, CEO of the Personal Advisor company.

Although deposit rates will continue to fall, this is still one of the least risky instruments for conservative investors, Kokoreva said.

attack of the clones

Due to the decrease in the profitability of deposits, banks will have to look for other tools and products to retain the funds of the population, bankers admit.

Sberbank, VTB, RSHB this year tested the sale of their own bonds through offices to individuals in small amounts (from 50,000 rubles).

Next year, banks will continue to actively promote savings accounts, Demenyuk said. In case of early withdrawal of funds, the previously accrued interest on them does not burn out, replenishment and withdrawal of funds is allowed at any time without restrictions, there is practically no input threshold for the amount.

And according to Gribanov, also next year "profitable" cards - with interest on the balance - both debit and credit, will be popular. “The interest on such cards can be quite high, while they do not limit the client in using funds, unlike a deposit. In addition, they often have loyalty programs,” he explains.

True, both savings accounts and income cards have a significant drawback. The bank can reduce interest on them unilaterally or even cancel them altogether. To do this, it is enough for the bank to notify the product holder about the change in tariffs, for example, by a message on the website.

In addition, alternative instruments for investing funds, in particular investment life insurance, have recently been gaining popularity, Ushkova recalls, now the entry threshold for them has significantly decreased - up to hundreds of thousands of rubles, products have become simpler and more understandable.

Rates* of ruble deposits without partial withdrawal of funds, % per annum

Rates* of dollar deposits without partial withdrawal of funds, % per annum

Investment experts have warned Russian bank depositors about the end of the period of high income on deposits - due to the steady reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank, deposits will no longer be attractive as early as 2018.

“Obviously, the rate on deposits is constantly decreasing and will continue to fall, and this will lead to the gradual refusal of customers from such investments. Although the Central Bank may postpone an aggressive reduction in the key rate next year due to the possible adoption of US sanctions and a bubble in the consumer lending market, the regulator’s steps already taken are enough for banks to lower deposit rates below 7% per annum in the near future ”, - writes Gazeta.ru with reference to the interviewed specialists.

The key rate of the Central Bank is the main indicator for the market, it affects the interest rates of all instruments. As Reedus reported, or even lower. Because of this, they will start first of all, and loans will become cheaper at a slower rate.

Not that the drop in deposit rates by 1.5-2% could be called grandiose, but after the traditional New Year's promotions, when many banks briefly make conditions more tempting for depositors, the difference between current and future deposit offers will be more noticeable. Given that today you can easily put money on a deposit at a rate of 8.5-9%, we are talking about a drop in profitability in the future by about a quarter.

For borrowers, lowering bank rates is an undoubted benefit, but for those who are used to keeping funds on deposits and “living on interest”, on the contrary, such people will either have to be content with less, or invent a way to increase the profitability of their capital, and this is a greater risk, and big trouble.

“Against the backdrop of declining rates, more and more clients are looking towards investment products with a capital return guarantee based on life insurance. Clients are also interested in individual investment accounts, but, unlike other accounts, they do not fall under the deposit insurance system. A good alternative to deposits can be ruble bonds: OFZ or corporate debt. All this together can provoke some outflow of the deposit portfolio both from individual banks and the system as a whole, ”the publication lists other investment options.

Recall that the last six months and the euro against the backdrop of gradually rising in price of oil in order to fill the Russian budget. As soon as oil overcomes another milestone, the key rate of the Central Bank decreases by 25-50 basis points and the ruble, instead of going up, becomes cheaper or stands still. Thus, the currency received from the export of raw materials and goods is converted into a larger volume of ruble funds. At the same time, which cover the deficit of funds from the state for payments to pensioners.

Many citizens invest their own funds in the bank in order to receive favorable interest. There are banks that offer a deposit rate of up to 12% per annum. But such a transaction may be questionable, because the organization makes risky transactions. Because of this, customers may not receive their interest and even lose personal funds. It is worth cooperating with such banks if your funds do not exceed 1.4 million rubles.

Russia has created a special bank deposit insurance program. According to statistics this year through October inclusive, in 788 banks clients insure their investments. It is important to know that if the bank goes into liquidation, customers will be able to get their money back thanks to insurance.

Forecasts on deposit rates in 2018: the correct calculation of interest on deposits

Deposit interest is a remuneration from the bank for the use of the client's personal funds. Interest is paid with and without capitalization. If capitalization is taken into account, then accruals are made to a separate client account. Otherwise, interest is added to the deposit amount.

With each interest payment per month, the amount of the deposit increases, and the interest rate increases accordingly. Given these points, for investing the same amount of money, you can ultimately receive different returns.

Forecasts on deposit rates in 2018: the most profitable offers of banks

According to banki.ru statistics, the highest deposit rate can be obtained from Loko-Bank. The minimum investment will be 300,000 rubles and the maximum - 1 million rubles. The term of the deposit is one year. Clients will be able to receive 9% per annum. This offer is limited in time and period.

Large Russian banks offer slightly lower interest rates, but the client will always be sure of their reliability. Such banks include Sberbank, VTB. Here you can get an interest rate of 5 to 7%. Banks with an average amount of capital can offer from 8 to 9% per annum.

Forecasts on deposit rates in 2018: each bank has its own rate nuances

Several factors affect the amount of interest payments. This is the term of the deposit, the amount of investment, as well as the ability to replenish the account. Large banks have several types of deposits, but they differ little from each other and bring almost the same income to depositors.

When choosing a bank for investing personal funds, it is necessary to foresee all the nuances. Be sure to look not only at the interest rate, but also at other investment conditions. A high interest rate on a deposit may mean that the bank is conducting risky transactions. According to banking experts, in 2018 the interest rate on deposits will decrease.

Even in a difficult economic situation in 2019, there is an opportunity to invest money in such a way as to earn. One of the ways is to arrange a profitable deposit for individuals. But which of the most reliable banks in Russia today has the highest interest on deposits? The website agency experts analyzed the proposals of the largest banks in the country, compiling a review of deposits in rubles with favorable interest rates.

Deposits of individuals - a traditional way of investing money

There are many ways to invest money to earn passive income. You can buy a currency and wait for it to rise in price, you can earn money on Forex, invest in a PAMM account, try to earn income by trading binary options and much more.

All these ways of making money bring fairly high profits, but they are also associated with a certain risk. Bank deposits of individuals today remain the most reliable and traditional way of investing savings in Russia.

Choosing the most profitable deposit: what to look for

When choosing a bank to entrust money to, depositors, as a rule, pay attention to at least two parameters:

• - the size of the interest rate, which allows you to choose a deposit with the maximum income;
• - reliability of the bank, which allows you not to worry about the safety of savings even during a banking crisis.

It can be quite difficult to combine a high interest rate and sufficient bank reliability. Analysts of the agency website tried to do this by examining the conditions for deposits in Russian rubles for individuals in reliable banks.

What deposits in reliable Russian banks are the most profitable today

Each bank has its own line of profitable deposits for individuals with unique conditions.

In order to somehow bring the parameters of deposits in different banks “to a common denominator”, we tried to find out what the highest interest rates in rubles are offered to those who intend to open a deposit today, in 2019.

For the purity of the experiment, we compared the rates in the largest Russian banks on deposits for a period of 12 months, since this is the most popular investment period. As a result, the following list was obtained (check the exact conditions and interest rates on deposits with banks).

The most profitable deposits in reliable Russian banks from the top 10

Credit Bank of Moscow

MEGA Online deposit

Replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Calculation of interest monthly.

Bank FK Otkritie

Deposit "Reliable"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

Sovcombank

Deposit "Super Summer with Halva"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Accrual of interest at the end of the term.

Alfa Bank

Contribution "Even higher"

No replenishment / No partial withdrawal / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

Promsvyazbank

Deposit "My income"

Without replenishment / Without partial withdrawal / Capitalization / Interest accrual monthly.

Sberbank of Russia

Deposit "Online Plus"

No replenishment / No partial withdrawal / No capitalization / Interest accrual at the end of the term.

The main types of deposits of individuals

Today, Moscow banks offer a large number of different types of profitable deposits for individuals. But all of them can be divided into several groups:

Term deposits at the highest interest rates. By opening such a deposit, you give the bank your money for a certain period (3-6 months, 1 year or 3 years), and at this time you cannot take it back without losing interest or replenish your account.

Replenished deposits of individuals. By opening such a deposit, the depositor can save money by replenishing the account, and at the same time interest increases. However, it is impossible to withdraw funds from the account and not lose profitability.

Deposits with partial withdrawal of funds without loss of interest. Such deposits usually have the lowest interest rates. But they make it possible to withdraw part of the funds up to a pre-negotiated minimum balance, on the amount of which interest will be charged.

Of course, in any unforeseen situation, if you need money before the end of the deposit, you can always get it, but it will be a pity for the lost profit. So, when you are going to make a deposit in a bank, it is better to decide in advance when you will withdraw money so as not to lose income.

Despite the fact that the Russian economy is going through far from the best of times, and the Central Bank is actively working to clean up the banking sector, Russians still trust commercial banks and are ready to carry out deposit operations, placing money at interest to generate additional income. However, a bank deposit is the most reliable tool that you can use in 2018 to improve your financial condition with minimal risk of financial loss. This is largely due to the fact that the interests of depositors are protected by the Deposit Insurance System, and in the event of bankruptcy or revocation of the bank's license, they can count on compensation of funds in the amount of 1.4 million rubles, regardless of the currency and term of placement.

To understand what will happen to deposits in 2018, one should proceed from what the key rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be. And, judging by the fact that over the past year its value has only been revised downwards, depositors should hardly count on super-profitable offers from commercial banks. Moreover, this trend will continue in the long term, so it will be possible to claim better rates only within the framework of special offers, promotions or programs designed for certain consumer groups (for example, pensioners).

The reduction in retail lending may also provoke a further drop in deposit rates. The decrease in the level of solvency of the population, the new legislative restrictions of the Central Bank and the growth of delinquency on all types of obligations are holding back bankers from the mass issuance of borrowed funds, as was the case during the boom in consumer lending. Now banks analyze applications more carefully, refuse to issue money more often and sell problem debt portfolios faster, which affects the value of their assets. In such conditions, it is possible to stay afloat only at the expense of the funds of depositors placed at low interest rates.

Further rate cuts are what awaits depositors in 2018, as experts are sure. According to their forecast, on ruble deposits with placement of 12 months or more without the possibility of partial withdrawal and replenishment, it will be possible to receive the maximum income in the range of 7.5-8% per annum. On short-term deposits, the yield will be no more than 7-7.5% per annum. But large banks offer much more “modest” rates, which can be seen in the example of Sberbank, which places money at a maximum of 4.2% per annum.

An offer to make a deposit on too favorable terms should alert a depositor who wants to receive additional income. If the rate offered by the bank differs significantly from the average market rate, then this may indicate that it is faced with a shortage of liabilities and is trying to raise money without carrying out lending activities, which is necessary to pay interest to depositors.

The value of short-term deposits

When answering the question of what will happen to deposits in 2018, according to experts, one cannot fail to mention a new trend in the Russian market - a high demand for short-term deposits, which consumers have begun to actively open. This is facilitated by the new policy of banks that do not want to raise money at current rates for a long time, as they fear that in the future it may turn out to be extremely unprofitable due to the high probability of a further reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank.

Depositors are also willing to make deposits for up to 3 months, which is much more profitable given the current rates for such programs and the absence of the need to terminate the contract ahead of schedule if the deposited money is required for unforeseen expenses. As a result, according to the results of the first quarter of 2018, the volume of such deposits in the national currency increased by 0.26%, and in foreign - by 1.33%. And banks, which had not previously offered such conditions for the placement of funds, supplemented their deposit lines with short-term deposits.

According to the regulator, over the first 3 months of this year, the average rate has been actively growing in the segment of short-term deposits: since January, its value has increased from 4.8% to 5%, while for deposits up to 12 months, the average rate has decreased by 0.07 percentage points, and in the segment of long-term deposits (1-3 years) - by 1.11 percentage points.

According to experts, a kind of bias in favor of short-term deposits will persist throughout 2018. It is expected that by the beginning of 2019 the Central Bank will switch to a neutral rate of 6-6.5%, which means that commercial banks will be able to attract household funds for a longer period without fear of a further reduction in the key rate. But in any case, one should not expect an explosive growth in the profitability of deposits, since there are no prerequisites for this.