Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. US dollar exchange rate dynamics Dollar forecast for september october november

Expert forecasts: how much the dollar will cost in Russia

The unstable exchange rate of the national currency and the unstable economic situation do not allow making long-term forecasts. For example, about how much the dollar will cost from October 1, analysts cannot give an unambiguous answer. However, most of them express an opinion about the possible growth of the US currency in the last month of summer.

Dynamics of the official exchange rate, maximum values

According to the Moscow Exchange, in July the US dollar rose by 1.4%. At the same time, it is noted that the growth of the US currency continues for the second month in a row, which means that further ascent is not excluded.

Experts make their predictions why the Russian ruble is not regaining its positions. First, the economic situation in Russia is affected by sanctions and Russian-American relations, investor sentiment and capital flows. According to the latest news, these factors will have a further impact on the Russian currency and it is possible that, at least until the end of summer, the ruble will continue to weaken. In the short term, experts' forecasts come down to the level of 61-64 rubles per dollar. At the same time, economists believe that the European currency will also lose its position in relation to its American counterpart.

Analysts unanimously call sanctions the main enemy of the Russian ruble - it is because of them that the national currency cannot recover. And the forecast of 62-63 rubles per dollar is just the beginning, and the national currency can significantly accelerate its decline if relations between Russia and the United States do not improve.

On the other hand, now investors are waiting for inflation information for July in the US. Plus, the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank in September will strengthen the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Thus, the positive forecast of analysts comes down to 59-61 rubles per dollar. However, most experts are confident that the US dollar will rise by several points during this month.

As you know, when the budget for the next year is planned, the value of the dollar is laid down in the same way as the ruble, but fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the year are not taken into account at all. The current year 2017 was no exception, and today we will give our assessment of the dollar exchange rate for October. We will answer the main question, where will it go, up or down - the latest news.

To date, the dollar has exceeded 57 rubles. and rapidly rises up to 58 rubles. With such growth, the budget may suffer losses of more than 250 billion rubles. Not only is this a huge amount for the state, but also analysts give disappointing forecasts.

Some analysts argue that the dollar exchange rate will be affected by the increase in oil prices in October 2017, and this is negative for the US economy and the dollar exchange rate forecast for October will be disappointing. Recall that it was the United States that in every possible way initiated a decrease in prices on the oil market. Also, new sanctions against the Russian Federation should not be discounted, which will lead to a jump in the dollar / ruble currency pair.

Although the rise in oil prices is not final and some analysts all predict a further decline in oil prices. This picture will also have a negative impact on the country's economy, because the Russian Federation receives most of its profits from the sale of oil and there will be a noticeable fluctuation in the dollar in October 2017 (dollar / ruble).
To stabilize the situation, the government decided to cooperate with Asian countries in the supply of petroleum products and natural gas. This should have a beneficial effect on the ruble exchange rate, although the introduction of new sanctions is not ruled out.

Even in such a situation, Russia will be able to get some benefits. In connection with the sanctions, the domestic manufacturer will be able to take a leading position in the market, because goods of European origin are prohibited in the domestic market. This has a positive effect on agriculture and industry.

How much will the dollar cost in October 2017 - latest news

If all factors are taken into account, then analysts give a new forecast for the dollar for October 2017:

At the beginning of October, the exchange rate will be 57 rubles / dollar
the maximum dollar can grow to 58.5 rubles / dollar.

In other respects, analysts predict the strengthening of the ruble and the exchange rate should stabilize and average 57.5 rubles, but at the end of the month the mark may rise to 58 rubles. Although this is only a preliminary forecast, and you need to watch the cost of oil on the world market. Which have a change in the domestic currency market.

So far, none of the experts dares to publish a categorical forecast of the dollar exchange rate for October 2017. The thing is that the current situation on the currency market today is quite shaky and does not give a definite picture.

Divided in opinion, they do not give a definite forecast. Some experts believe that the dollar, although it will rise slightly, will still not reach a critical level.

It is worth waiting for the maximum 60 rubles per unit of US currency in October. Other analysts are more categorical and offer a forecast option with a more negative outcome.

In their opinion, the strengthening of the ruble will be only a temporary phenomenon, and the dollar will very soon, literally by the middle of the month, reach 62-64 rubles per unit.

The lion's share of uncertainty is brought to the market by a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions. will largely depend on how successfully the Russian economy survives this blow.

Factors affecting the dollar in October

Many factors can be named, but all of them, unfortunately, will be negative for the ruble. So, back to the new sanctions imposed against Russia. The economy survived the first wave of bans more or less with dignity. However, the last trickle of foreign investment in the Russian economy may be cut off.

And then the investment will literally be reduced to zero. Naturally, such an event cannot but affect the economy and the exchange rate of the national currency in a negative way.

In addition, experts are also concerned about the policy of the Central Bank of Russia, which continues to artificially lower rates in the second half of this year. Unfortunately, this does not have a positive effect on the value of the ruble.

Finally, the situation on the oil market, which, at the very least, helped the ruble "recline" also does not inspire hope. Despite the fact that the OPEC agreement was extended until the end of March next year, the expected stabilization did not follow.

Moreover, the active development of shale oil fields in the United States has a negative impact on oil prices.

Due to this, the market is flooded with new supplies of raw materials, for which American mining companies have already managed to prepare, but the rest of the market is completely unprepared. If no positive developments occur, we should expect that oil will again lose its hard-won positions.

One way or another, in October the US currency will be able to grow somewhat. According to preliminary forecasts, the dollar exchange rate may be:

At the beginning of the month, 57 rubles per unit.

By the end of October 60 rubles per unit.

The maximum value of the dollar is expected to be around 61 rubles.

U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. Denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar equals 100 cents. Denominations of banknotes in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have not been issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval coin thaler, minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse side of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 note has a special design on the back, consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and held in Washington.

It is believed that in order to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. At the same time, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit has been introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. At the same time, each time, as a result of a change in the ratio of prices for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued by 41% for the first time as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold was worth $35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit that was exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were tied to the US. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's accounting currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, the chronic deficit of the US budget led to the fact that the amount of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally terminated after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican monetary system, which finally legalized the rejection of the gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put US manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, the exchange rate had actually been halved against the Japanese yen, the pound, and the German mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 - a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of a single European currency, into which the central banks of many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite competition from the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading position in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base for settlements through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are carried out through this currency and the main quotes are set.

Experts' opinions regarding the future dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, outpacing China, which is in second place, by almost two to one. In addition, the high exchange rate of the dollar is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in US currency and during crises seek to convert them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.

The latest USD/RUB exchange rate forecast for October 2017. What will happen to the USD/RUB pair in the near future? When will the dollar collapse, or is the currency still worth buying? Read expert opinions and latest news.

You can see the dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation online .

Dollar exchange rate in October 2017. Key Factors

In September, the Russian ruble again surprised everyone. Despite the reduction of the interest rate of the Bank of Russia to 8.5% (September 15) and the US Federal Reserve meeting positive for the dollar (September 20), at the end of the month the Russian currency started to take off again.

The key support factors were the tax period, the positive resolution of the Binbank story, and, of course, the rise in oil prices. What will happen to the quotes of "black gold" in October and how will this affect the ruble exchange rate?

From a technical point of view, the price of oil has approached strong resistance around the $57 mark. Here are the highs of 2017. According to most analysts, the price of oil will turn down from this level.

On November 29, the next meeting of the OPEC countries will be held in Vienna, where the extension of the agreement on freezing oil production will be discussed. Nevertheless, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said already in September that it was unlikely that it would be possible to reach an agreement quickly: in his opinion, consensus would not be reached until January 2018.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn: protracted negotiations and increased uncertainty associated with the OPEC+ deal could lower the price of oil by $3-$5 from annual highs.

In addition to oil prices, in October the ruble will be guided by the policy of world central banks. In the long run, the monetary policy divergence will widen, with the CBR in an interest rate cutting cycle, while the Fed and the European Central Bank, by contrast, are preparing to tighten policy.

Meetings of central banks will be held at the end of October, expectations on these issues and the latest news will be reflected in the exchange rates.

Dollar exchange rate: forecast for October 2017

The USD/RUB pair remains in the medium-term range of 55.5 rubles. - 61 rubles.

Analysts believe that short-term drawdowns of the dollar below the mark of 57 rubles per dollar are possible, but at these levels the currency will be actively redeemed

Analysts do not expect a sharp rise in the pair in October 2017. The 60 mark will probably remain the main resistance level for the dollar.