Analysis of income and expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation. Analysis of income and expenditure of the budget of the Russian Federation Budget system of the Russian Federation

The difficult economic situation in Russia makes us think ahead about what kind of life awaits us, ordinary citizens, in the future. The future of ordinary people directly depends on what policies those in power are going to adhere to in the coming period. Today we will learn about what the Russian budget will be in 2017.

Features of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2017

As you know, the budget of the Russian Federation is developed immediately for 3 years in advance, so we can already talk about what Russia’s budget indicators will be in 2017-2019. However, the figures in this budget may change over time, under the influence of various factors and circumstances, including changes in various budget indicators that can be very significantly influenced by world politics and economics.

It should be noted that federal budget for 2017-2019., adopted by the State Duma - December 9, 2016. and signed by the President of the Russian Federation on December 20. The country's budget is calculated from many factors. Not the least important influence on it is the dollar exchange rate, the general political situation in the external arena, etc. In addition, the imposed sanctions and response measures to them have a great impact on the country’s economy. The adopted Federal Budget Law will come into force on January 1, 2017.

Russian budget 2017 in numbers

Income- amount to 13,488 billion rubles.

Expenses– 16241 billion rubles.

Budget deficit– 2753 billion rubles. It is planned to reduce the budget deficit over the next 3 years to 1.1 billion rubles. Analysts expect that in 2017 the budget deficit will decrease by 15%. However, everyone unanimously argues that this reduction can only happen by reducing government spending, including on the needs of the population.

Table of income and expenses of the Russian budget for 2017

On December 20, Vladimir Putin signed the main financial document for the country for the next year. According to him, the well-being of Russians will not improve much in the near future, but it may worsen even more in 2018-20. Because, if we look at Russia’s budget for 2017 in numbers, it can only be described as “eating away.” Unfortunately, it does not provide for any real anti-crisis program or import substitution plan. But there are several interesting points that can suggest what kind of future, according to government forecasts, awaits citizens of the Russian Federation.

What budget in numbers did deputies adopt for Russia in 2017?

The country's main financial document states that next year the state intends to spend about 16.241 trillion rubles with revenues of 13.488 trillion rubles. What do these numbers mean for ordinary Russians?

Three difficult years

Cost structure in dollars

If we look at the expenses forecast for 2017, then, compared to last year, their total amount in the federal budget has not changed much. By and large, 16.241 or 16.098 trillion rubles is not much of a difference. At the current exchange rate (60.8528 rubles/dollars), about 250 billion in dollars. For comparison: expenses in the US budget are 16 times higher, and in the budget of Belarus 30 times less.

However, if you look not at the total volumes, but at the cost structure, you can clearly see a trend towards increasing the injection of money into the security forces and the army with a reduction in spending on the social, scientific, medical and educational spheres. In particular, compared to last year:

• medical costs will decrease by 10%;
• housing and communal services costs will increase by 40%;
• the pension fund will receive less than 175 billion rubles;
• the educational sector will be missing about 8%.

At the same time, the defense budget will be increased by 72 billion rubles, not counting the planned increase in salaries of a significant part of the security forces.

Expenditure part:

What does such a budget adjustment mean for the average citizen? It's simple:

1. Rising military spending indicates preparation for military conflicts.
2. Increased spending on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and intelligence services indicates preparation for internal unrest.
3. A decrease in spending on the social, educational and medical spheres with a large amount of reserves shows that the influx of money is decreasing and this is a long-term trend.

Sources of income

Regarding the revenues included in the federal budget, their size also differs little from last year - 13.44 trillion in 2017 to 13.738 trillion rubles in 2016. This is about 225 billion dollars.

Budget revenues:

Year	2015	2016
Total income	13659	13369
Oil and gas	5863	4778
of them
MET	3160	2819
export duties	2703	1959
Not oil and gas	7797	8591
of them
corporate income tax	491	465
VAT on goods sold in the Russian Federation	2448	2637
VAT on goods imported into the Russian Federation	1785	1910
excise taxes on goods produced in the Russian Federation	528	623
excise taxes on goods imported into the Russian Federation	54	57
import duties	560	542

As can be seen from the table, oil revenues predicted by the Government will decrease next year, but this is planned to be covered by increasing various taxes, fees, excise taxes and duties.

Real budget deficit

In regards to income and expenses, one nuance should be clarified - a correct understanding of the size of the deficit. The point is that government officials in the news, commenting on the federal budget, say: “Next year the budget deficit of the Russian Federation will be at the level of (number) percent of GDP.” What's wrong here?

GDP is the gross domestic product of the entire economy of the state, while the federal budget of Russia is the expenses and expenses of all government agencies, i.e. only a small part of the country's economy. In other words, what government officials say when comparing the budget deficit with GDP is the same as comparing the finances of an individual teacher with the income of a kindergarten. The number will be lower, but it does not give a real understanding of the employee’s level of costs and expenses.

In reality, if you look at the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers, it turns out that its deficit is 20%. Simply put, the government spends 20% more than it earns!

What's interesting about the 2017 federal budget?

As already noted, the federal budget of the Russian Federation for next year contains several interesting points that can tell us about what awaits Russians in the future. The most important of them are as follows.

Hiding military spending

According to official information, the state plans to reduce military spending in 2017 - from 3.89 to 2.84 trillion rubles. Moreover, 2.771 trillion rubles of this amount are secret items, the intended use of which is practically not controlled by anyone. However, if we consider budget expenditures that relate to the military, but are not spelled out in the article on defense, then we can find the same amount of funds allocated for the army.

Experts estimate that the 2017 budget will spend up to 4.5 trillion rubles on military spending. However, a significant part of them, like the official costs of the army, are classified.

What are these funds spent on? Ideally, for the army and providing military personnel with everything they need, including housing and transportation. But in reality everything is a little different. For example, in 2016, the government allocated an additional 800 billion “secret” rubles to repay loans that the army took out in 2010 for rearmament. You can learn how the money taken on credit was spent from the case of Evgenia Vasilyeva.

At whose expense will the budget adjustment be made?

The next interesting fact that can be noted when looking at the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers is that they plan to cover 20% of the deficit by using money from the reserve fund and the national welfare fund. Almost everything will be taken from the first - 50 billion dollars, from the second the missing part. At the same time, the income will also be reduced due to the privatization of state property and budget adjustments:

• liquidation of part of long-term investment projects;
• mineralization of indexation of salaries for civil servants;
• reduction of subsidies by region.

The forecast for the next year on key indicators for the Russian economy contained in the document

1. The average price per barrel of oil is $40.
2. The average annual dollar exchange rate is 67 rubles.
3. The projected GDP is 1.4 trillion dollars (86.8 trillion rubles).
4. The reserve fund in 2018 will be equal to 0.
5. The size of the maternal one is 453 thousand rubles.

In addition, next year's budget adjustments will reduce program allocations:

• “Economic development and innovative economy” - decrease by 22.8%;
• “Promotion of employment” - decrease by 29.4%;
• “Healthcare development” – decrease by 25%.

Summary

To summarize, we can say that the Russian budget for 2017 in numbers indicates a continuation of the economic crisis. However, the Government does not have a plan for exiting it. They just want to wait it out, covering the shortage of money by privatization and spending reserve funds.

The battle for the 2017 budget is over

The tense global political situation forces citizens to think about the future. Russia is going through hard times. The economy, one might say, is being reborn anew, and this entails inevitable costs in the form of a federal budget deficit. People feel unstable, and therefore are already asking the question: what Russian budget for 2017 in numbers?

When preparing a budget, important factors are taken into account. This is the oil and gas component, the general world situation. Laying down articles for the next three-year period, the authorities also paid attention to the existing sanctions of foreign countries against our country and Russia’s response to them.

The law that determined the budget for 2016 was an innovation, because traditionally the budget is determined for the next year and planned for another 2 years. But due to the lack of clear forecasts and constant changes (not always for the better), the government did not dare to take on the responsibility of forecasting for 3 years ahead.

However, in 2016, the authorities seem to be optimistic, because in the coming weeks there will beand funds have been allocated for 2018 and 2019. The federal law will come into force on January 1, 2017.

So, according to the draft federal law, state revenues will amount to 13.4 trillion rubles. Expenses, in turn, are 16.2 trillion. What do these numbers say? Yes, the state doesn't have enough money . Nominally, these are almost 2016 numbers. Of course, inflation also matters; taking it into account, income will decrease compared to the previous year. According to forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the state is able to reduce expenses and increase the revenue component. The prognosis is quite good: if Russian budget deficit for 2017will be 2.8 billion, then in 2018 – 2 billion, and in 2019 it will be 1.1 billion rubles

The budget for housing and communal services is rapidly declining: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 58 billion rubles to this area, and in 2018 only 28.8 billion rubles.

Budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017will amount to almost 1968 billion rubles, which is 12.2% of the share of total expenses. However, this department is facing significant changes, first of all, they relate to staffing. Not only are the requirements for professional qualities becoming more stringent, but the moral and psychological aspects of the personality of an individual employee now play a major role. These criteria were introduced partly as conditions for staff reductions. By October 2017 it may decrease by almost 10%. This means that 100 thousand employees will be left without work. The innovations will have little impact on employees working “on the ground”, directly with the population (precinct officers, for example). The share of their reductions will be no more than 2%. Those who remain in the ranks of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will receive pleasant bonuses - a 5% increase in salary.

Since 2015, Russia has outlined a direct course towards supporting and strengthening national defense.Russia's military budget in 2017will amount to 2840 billion in 2017. This is 6% less than in 2016, taking into account inflation. It is worth noting the existence of so-called closed, secret items in the budget. In the defense sector, 800 billion is planned for such an item. There are opinions that this money will be used for early fulfillment of obligations on loans to defense enterprises in order to save interest.

Social sphere

Latest news about the Russian budget for 2017Regarding the expenditure part responsible for improving the lives of citizens, they are as follows: expenditures on the social sector will amount to more than 30% of the total budget, which is 5080 billion rubles in 2017. More than 4,000 billion rubles were allocated to the “Social Support for Citizens” program. and, finally, 10 trillion rubles have been allocated for the development of the pension system.

The authorities note the need to review all programs, except social ones, in order to identify the highest priority projects. In 2017, it is planned to implement 40 federal target programs. Those programs that do not receive funding will have to wait their turn. Some programs will be abolished, but even in such difficult conditions, it is planned to launch 2-3 new ones.

In the process of approving the budget, the government relied on the thesis that the search for new opportunities for additional financing is not a task that is relevant for the upcoming three-year period. The priority is to launch the state's reserve capabilities. In other words, we should proceed from what we own, what resources Russia has to level out the economy in the current conditions.

In general, experts say that the negative economic situation will continue in 2017. However, there is also the desire of the state to comprehensively develop a program to overcome the crisis and improve the social situation. This gives the people faith in the coming of better times and hope that the financial course was chosen correctly.

The beginning of the 10s of the 21st century was marked by a sharp increase in supporters of the theory of a “Russian superpower” and the “special” role of the Russian state in the world. But the situation in the world changed seriously after the fall in energy prices in 2014, which greatly reduced the number of adherents of “getting up from your knees.”

In fact, everything is quite simple: Russia, since the early 2000s, has lived on money from the sale of petrocarbons, which have grown significantly against the backdrop of a growing global economy. No real competitive economy that could offer the world quality products was created in the Russian Federation during the years of “oil abundance,” and most of the proceeds from the sale of oil and gas were simply stolen and remained in the pockets of officials.

But let's turn to the language of numbers to determine whether Russia is as powerful and rich as some Russian politicians claim by comparing the size of the government budgets of Russia and other countries in the world for 2016.

State budgets of the leading countries of the world for 2016

	Countries	Million US dollars
1	USA	3 251 000
2	China	2 426 000
3	Germany	1 515 000
4	Japan	1 439 000
5	France	1 253 000
6	Great Britain	1 101 000
7	Italy	876 000
8	Canada	585 000
9	Spain	473 600
10	Australia	425 700
11	Netherlands	336 500
12	The Republic of Korea	291 300
13	Mexico	259 600
14	Sweden	250 800
15	India	236 000
16	Belgium	226 800
17	Switzerland	221 900
18	Norway	230 300
19	Russia	216 000
30	Venezuela	203 400

As can be seen from the table above, the size of the Russian budget is not even included in the top 15 budgets of countries in the world; its value is less than that of Belgium and Sweden (!), 7 times less than that of Germany, 12 times less than that of China and 16 times less than the USA. By the way, the expenses of the United States exceed the Russian federal budget by 3 times.

Federal budget of Russia for 2017: end of story

Neither the government nor the State Duma were surprised by the new Federal Budget for 2017: this is a budget for eating up and continuing the agony of the socio-economic model approved in the early 2000s. Despite the decline in the standard of living of the population in the past year, the trend to strengthen power at the expense of law enforcement agencies, for which no money is saved in the country’s budget, continued. Thus, the new budget includes about 4.7 trillion for military expenditures and law enforcement agencies. rubles, which exceeds the total expenditures on healthcare, education and culture by more than 4 times. The country’s budget is calculated based on the average annual price of Urals oil of 40 per barrel, which is an optimistic scenario, given global trends, as well as the arrival of the Republican Party in the United States led by Donald Trump, who promise to open access to the world market for American oil.

The government's point of view is that this fact should not make Russians disheartened. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological achievements, which will ultimately provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.

The draft state budget for 2017-2019 was published in October

The draft document was published by employees of the Russian Ministry of Finance on October 12, 2016, and it is this document that will determine the structure of state revenues and expenses for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to new realities, including low, declining cash reserves and “Western restrictions” on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget to find out government priorities.

Innovations in the State Budget of Russia

To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures characterizing this bill can already be analyzed. Among the main innovations the following points can be noted:

• The government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a single budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion expressed by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in aligning accumulated budget imbalances;
• A distinctive feature of the new document was a change in the structure of sources of financing the budget deficit. If this year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more borrowed funds raised on the domestic market.

Revenue part of the Russian budget in 2017

It is worth noting that the revenue side in the 2017 budget is fixed at 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year’s figure. Many economists say that if we also take into account, then in real terms this part of the budget will continue the downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.

Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened position of the ruble - the 2019 budget includes a quote of 71.1 rubles per 1 US dollar. Oil prices included in the Russian budget are projected at $40/barrel. In addition, one cannot help but note the fact that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue portion will tend to decline - in 2019 this share will be 15%.

The revenue side of the state budget is affected by the shaky position of the ruble

The head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov called the main goal of the government to ensure income without additional tax reform and. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts explain government optimism for completely different reasons.

For example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector at RANEPA, says that the Ministry of Finance’s forecast growth in revenue is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its implementation with tax revenues, which the Ministry of Finance has budgeted in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. She calls the second reason a possible increase.

Expenditures of the Russian budget

Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this figure was announced in a slightly smaller amount. Thus, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 – 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing budget expenditures is the only way to ensure fiscal consolidation.

Let us remind you that expenses in the Russian budget are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.e. 18% of all expenses will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of “hidden” costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this with certain plans that provide for early settlement of loan obligations of defense enterprises.

The Russian defense sector will receive the largest allocations

If we consider the functional areas of expenses item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:

• it is planned to spend 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. The government in this case demonstrates a tendency to reduce, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
• The national economy will receive allocations of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion, and in 2019 – 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, funding for the national economy will decrease from 14.2% of all expenses to 12.9%. It is quite strange that, given the policy of cutting spending on this item, government financiers are predicting an imminent crisis for the country. It is not entirely clear what reasons may provoke this growth - under the conditions of sanctions and an investment blockade, foreign investments cannot be counted on, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take out bank loans due to exorbitant interest rates;
• national defense needs will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. This figure is an open part of budget expenditures for this item. Taking into account closed items that make up the gross portion of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in allocations. In 2018, allocations will be 2.72, and in 2019 – 2.856 trillion. Over three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the total budget expenditures, which indicates a high degree of “militarization” of this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is to carry out structural reforms related to production and reduce military spending. However, this expert recommendation has remained unheeded by the government for many years now;
• National security spending is rising. Law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
• expenses, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and will remain 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
• The health sector also does not cause any particular concern for the government: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 – 394 and 369 billion rubles, respectively.

Doctors and teachers can hardly hope for government support

The analysis of hidden costs allowed us to draw the following conclusions:

• government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the total budget expenditure and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure for 2016;
• a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen areas, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate interbudgetary transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
• 150 “secret” billions of rubles will be allocated under the article “National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies”;
• items including “other issues” and “hidden expenses” together account for about 24% of the total expenditure portion of the Russian budget.

About the budget deficit

The budget for the next three years is planned as deficit. In 2017, this figure will be 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed increasing the budget deficit to an amount of 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some economists' forecasts, this figure could reach 3.26 trillion, coming close to 3.9% of GDP.

This value would be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth citing the words expressed on this matter by Vladimir Putin.

The President said that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, but he maintains the healthy optimism of government financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that in comparison with the 2016 budget, income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and expenses should decrease by 670 billion in national currency.

In 2017, the budget deficit could reach a record 3.9% of GDP

It is also worth taking into account the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which the 2016 budget has already reached, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, the total could reach 16.63 trillion rubles.

Financiers are more optimistic about the future, suggesting that already in 2018 the country can reach a deficit equal to 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 it will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the Fitch analytical agency say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hit the budget hard.

State debt of the Russian Federation

As already mentioned, government financiers plan to increase borrowing levels to cover the budget deficit. Presumably, these will mainly be internal loans, which will amount to:

• 1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
• in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to yield another 1.6 trillion rubles;
• in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.

In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the bonds will mature, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles. It is possible that the amount of federal loan bonds placed will be 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds from the government at high rates.

It is worth noting that the change in sources of deficit financing is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that, if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to provide 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until February 1, 2020.

To reduce the budget deficit, the volume of borrowing will increase

The borrowing bar on foreign markets is falling sharply. They plan to attract no more than $7 billion from external sources in 2017, and in the next two years - another $3 billion, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.

In 2017, the country's main financial institution will simply refinance its expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy back securities worth CU 7.3 billion. Let us note right away: many experts believe that the main financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but due to the ongoing sanctions, which also apply to the lending sector.

The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation will increase by the beginning of 2020, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the 2016 level by 1.8%. Over the next three years, the total volume of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are frightened by the comparison of the figures of external public debt, which is estimated at 55 billion US dollars, the amount of internal debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.

The budget issue and Chechnya

The planned budget, aimed at saving money, has already caused dissatisfaction in some regions. Let us recall that after the project was published, Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic, expressed dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through the social network Instagram. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

In his statement, Peskov noted that the country’s economy is characterized by difficulties that relate not only to the federation as a whole, but also affect its individual regions. The presidential speaker emphasized that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of controversial issues, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the discontent of individual federal entities - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.

Ramzan Kadyrov expressed displeasure with the meager funding for Chechnya

Not long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to express criticism of the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic has not received funds for a long time under the federal target program related to the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. Reducing the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will negatively affect social obligations.

However, we cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov’s leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies worth 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidy leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). Chechnya's budget is already 80-87% formed from deductions from the all-Russian budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute of Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.

However, with a very significant amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to occupy 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment rates. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of cash income of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of it is modestly recorded under the heading not “salary”, but “other income”.

Conclusions and forecasts

In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At the very least, he certainly does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve this, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up its remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict an aggravation of external risks for the country’s economy, but they speak of the possibility of an aggravation of internal risks.

In many ways, the viability of the Russian budget depends on the oil market

The already mentioned oil prices are to blame. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, and this, according to the Ministry of Finance, does not make it possible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why election expenses cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. However, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, these statements also cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.