Finance specialists believe that by the end of 2018, the evolution of Euro-currency to the dollar to $ 1.12 will fall. From January 2019, the euro course will begin to grow slowly, many analysts adhere to this opinion. In the financial market, the ruble was considered in the financial market, but now experts are more inclined towards the euro.

The increase in the course of the euro or the dollar to the mark of 100 rubles is unlikely. The predisposing factors for the instability of the foreign exchange market are economic relations between the EU, the United States and Russia.

In the eurozone, low inflation and economic growth are currently observed. Now the question of the possible introduction of non-standard measures from the ECB, which will allow to fight a deflationary threat.

Based on Forbes data, at the end of August 2018, the euro weakened his position in relation to the dollar by 9-10%. Indicators of the US trading policy set up experts skeptical. Many countries are involved in the negotiations on the application of national currency and bypassing the dollar.

In practice, it can be seen that such proposals will not be able to implement. The dollar occupies strong positions regarding the euro and the ruble, which will begin to strengthen its position after the stabilization of the Russian economy.

The euro does not "suffer from hostilities in the Middle East, like a dollar and ruble. Any action on the economic market entail a number of consequences that are not beneficial for countries.

Donald Trump after limiting the importation of cars from Europe, received a boycott of American agricultural products in the European market.

Due to sanctions and various restrictions, internal tensions in the Eurorasnke increase.

Opinion of experts regarding the euro courses in 2018

According to analysts, at the moment it is difficult to say, in which currency is best to store cash savings. Now most Russians earn in rubles. Experts advise them to spend, and not to translate into any foreign currency.

Because of the economic weakness of many regions, it is expected that in early 2019 the euro will remain under pressure. The dynamic growth of the European currency is unlikely. At the moment, the euro is considered a common dollar replacement, without Europe, world equilibrium in the foreign exchange market will be difficult to maintain.

The fate of the euro will depend on the actions of the ECB. If it changes the softening program, the stimulation of the European economy will be observed. By the end of 2018, the euro will cost 79.69 rubles or 1,148 dollars.

Low probability that the euro will strengthen its position against the dollar in 2018. Since January 2019, the European currency may grow, but negligible.

At the moments of crisis in the market, fake borrowings often appear. A distinctive feature of the euro is the 11-digit serial number to which another letter is added.

When replacing the letter on its sequence number in the Latin alphabet and the addition of the resulting numbers with the rest, the figure 8 should be released. Only in this case, the bill is genuine.

There is another way to check. The numbers and the letter will correspond to the country where the bill was printed. If the result was X2, then the bill is from Germany.

https: //www.Syt/2018-08-16/analitiki_obsudili_chto_budet_s_dollarom_evro_rublem_i_rossiyskoy_ekonomikoy

"The worse the situation, the better the dollar"

Analysts discussed what will be with a dollar, euro, ruble and Russian economy

The situation in the markets remains uncertain. The ruble is chosen, it grows to the dollar and the euro, and what to do - buy or sell currency, it is not clear. Participants in the online conference on the website of IC "Finam" discussed whether the authorities can ban the dollar, which will be his course by the end of the year, which will be with rates on foreign currency deposits and whether to sell the shares of Russian companies, until the United States has introduced new sanctions against Russia ..

Will the dollar rise to 80 rubles by the end of the year or, on the contrary, will return to the level of 62.3 rubles?

The situation is such that the main factor affecting the dynamics of the ruble is now a new package of sanctions [USA against Russia]. It all depends on what form they will be accepted and what comments will follow. If they do not represent a special threat to our country, it is possible to wait for the rise of the national currency by the end of the year to the levels of 59-61 rubles per dollar. The worst option for us is a ban on investing in Russian sovereign debts and a ban for Russian banks with states for calculations in dollars. This option may pour out a noticeable outflow of investments from the country and lead to the fact that the ruble will have to be supported through the sale of a part of foreign exchange reserves. In this case, we can easily see the hike of the ruble above 70 rubles per dollar with the prospect of seeing by the end of the year and 75.

The probability that at the end of this year the dollar will cost more than 80 rubles, I estimate it now in 6%, and a similar probability at the end of next year in 16%. The likelihood that by the end of this year, USD / RUB will be 63.2 rubles or lower, I now estimate 20%.

At current oil prices, the macroeconomic picture is quite stable, and the weakening of the ruble in recent months is due to sanction risks and the overall correction in all emerging markets. From a fundamental point of view, there are no serious grounds for the movement of the dollar pair / ruble up to 80 rubles per dollar. But one-time splashes of panic in the case of, for example, the implementation of a hard version of sanctions (sanctions on the public debt and the corsche of banks, which is definitely not a basic scenario), are theoretically possible. Meanwhile, on the horizon of the next year, we estimate the likelihood of such a movement by no more than 15%. Our landmark at the rate of the dollar pair / ruble at the end of the year is the area of \u200b\u200b65-66 rubles per dollar.

The probability of returning a dollar rate to a mark of 62.3 rubles - high. This is a natural return to the fundamental levels with a decrease in global risks. With the scenario of the global recession and falling oil to $ 35, the dollar can "leave" at 85-90 rubles, and in the worst cases above. But we still consider the likelihood of a global recession in the next two years low.

in today's geopolitical situation, the level of 63 rubles per dollar is a very optimistic scenario, in which sanction risks are implemented with the smallest damage for the Russian economy and the financial system.

Can it prohibit the purchase of currency by the population or enter a special course? What will happen to currency deposits?

Analyst IR "Freeda Finance" Anastasia Posnova: While the implementation of such a scenario seems unlikely. Any limitations of this kind can lead to the formation of the "black market" of the currency. To take, for example, Venezuela, where in due time it was forbidden to sell the currency to individuals who are not leaving abroad. As a result, for 14 years, currency control "Black Market" currencies in the country increased at times.

Analyst "Finam" Alexey Korenev:As you know, there are no zero probabilities in nature. But on the basis of the current foreign policy and inconomic situation in the country, in the near future [such probability] is small.

Head of the Market Analysis Department "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev:Freezing currency deposits is impossible. Even if [Suddenly], Russian state banks will ban settlements in dollars through American banks (what we do not believe), they will be able to lend currency from the Central Bank. And the reserves of the Central Bank overlap all Russian currency deposits repeatedly. So problems with payments to depositors of state banks on currency deposits cannot be in principle.

Head of the Analytical Department of the IFC "Solid" Oleg Steps:Apparently, the rates on currency deposits will rise by banks to increase their attractiveness and prevent the depot of depositors.

Will we see a dollar at 55-56 rubles in 2019?

Head of the Department for the analysis of banks and money market IR "Veles Capital" Yuri Kravchenko:Unfortunately, today's geopolitical situation is unlikely to allow such a course in the coming years, even if the dollar decreases in global markets.

Analyst "Finam" Alexey Korenev: Theoretically, this is possible in case of cancellation of a significant part of sanctions while simultaneously significant increase in hydrocarbon prices. And if there is at least some positive changes in the part of the structural reforms of the Russian economy, then it will be great. However, both, and the third now in itself is not too likely.

Leading analyst Promsvyazbank Mikhail Poddubsky:If oil prices remain at the current level (and our basic scenario suggests some correction), sanction risks are not implemented and the general attitude towards Emerging Markets (developing markets) will be neutral, then with such a scenario, a couple of dollar pair / ruble closer to 60 rubles per dollar. For levels below, you need to see the euphoria in global markets or a sharp increase in oil quotes from current levels.

Head of the Analytical Department of the IFC "Solid" Oleg Steps:The likelihood that next year the dollar rate to the ruble will be below 55 rubles, I estimate now in 7%.

Is the collapse of the dollar possible if all countries go to other currencies in international trade?

Head of the Department for the analysis of banks and money market IR "Veles Capital" Yuri Kravchenko:The worse the situation in global markets, the better the dollar. Even when the US credit ratings were reduced, the first reaction of investors was the purchase of an American currency. Therefore, conversations about the transition of international settlements from the dollar on other currencies is meaningless.

Head of the Market Analysis Department "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev:The value of the American economy and the dollar in the world decreases from the end of the Second World War. It decreases steadily, but some kind of one-time collapse, I hope we will not see. In the long term, the most likely transition to three large currency zones - yuan, dollar, euro.

Analyst "Finam" Alexey Korenev: The dollar is and in the foreseeable future will be the main world reserve currency, and it is difficult to imagine the situation at which the "collapse" of the dollar will follow. Calculations in alternative currencies under separate bilateral contracts are already underway, and in the future their share is most likely to grow, up to the formation of local zones and commodity segments, where they will dominate. But this is still no particular concerning the main bilateral trade relations that do not have a significant impact on global markets.

Russian stocks will be expensive or cheaper?

Head of the Department for Analysis of Financial Markets "Kit Finance Broker" Vasily Koposov: It all depends on what assessed sanctions will be introduced. If there is no tough action, the investor will return to the Russian market. But with any development of events, it is necessary to understand that the dollar assessment of the Russian stock market will most likely fall - the RTS index. The index of the Moscow Exchange may not fall - it will be pulled out the shares of exporters. If you highly appreciate the probability of implementing an "apocalyptic" scenario when entering new sanctions, then in this case it is worth closing all positions, buy cash dollars and store them in a safe. Otherwise, you should not suit the sale. Make a bet on the shares of companies winning from such actions, for example - on exporters.

Head of the Market Analysis Department "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev:The probability of further drawdown is definitely there. But the likelihood of market growth is greatly outweigh. If you believe that there will be a terrible crisis, then you need to buy gold, buckwheat, salt, matches, stew, cartridges. We have not yet seen a crisis in the coming years.

Leading analyst Promsvyazbank Mikhail Poddubsky: In our opinion, the current ruble prices in a wide market are quite attractive. The risk premium is quite adequate, and the dividend yield of shares and at all at the maximum levels. If the shares of strong companies and their holder normally refers to short-term volatility, responding to geopolitical news is unlikely rationally.

Does it make sense to buy a dollar for a long time for 2-3 years?

Head of the Market Analysis Department "Opening Broker" Konstantin Bushuev: Due to the budget rule, the ruble may slowly relax for several years, but there is no time from the current levels, there is no chance that by the end of the year we will see 61-62 rubles per dollar or lower.

Analyst "Finam" Alexey Korenev: The risks of buying a currency with a horizon in 2-3 years look quite high. And if you add a significant uncertainty here with the introduction of new or mitigating existing sanctions and low predictability of the behavior of the energy market, then such an investment should be assessed as unreasonably risky.

On this topic:

Due to the course of the dollar and coronavirus, INAO predicts the rise in housing prices for 15-20% of the YNAO power declared the lack of need to buy products for quarantine ruble reached the second place in the world's volatility to the US dollar WTI oil cheaper $ 21. The dollar and the euro rested in the ceiling set by the Mosbegin the dollar exchange rate on the stock exchange in 80 rubles, the oil fell below $ 26. The Brent oil has fallen below $ 27 per barrel. The dollar rate has exceeded 79 rubles in the Moscow Exchange: the dollar has exceeded the dollar rate. 74 rubles, the euro is more expensive than 83 rubles. Experts "News" predicted the exchange rate for March and April Izvestia published a forecast for an increase in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation of the key rate. The dollar rate exceeded 74 rubles after the announcement of the Coronavirus pandemic announcement for the first time since 2016 exceeded 73 rubles. Russian banks began to sell Euro 95 rubles Moscow Exchange collapsed when opening a bidding on the first channel and "Russia 1" in "Black Monday" did not say how much the ruble fell, what happens with oil prices after the "black Monday" and what exchange rate on Far East the price of oil collapsed, the ruble fell in panic markets. What will happen next? Donald Trump commented on the collapse of world oil prices in the United States suspended bidding after falling indexes by 7% MEA predicts a drop in oil demand for 90 thousand barrels per day due to coronavirus analyst Fitch warned about the threat of devaluation in Russia due to falling oil prices Bank of Russia for 30 days abandoned the purchase of currency against the background of the oil price collapse The richest people of the world lost $ 139 billion due to the coronavirus Surgutneftegaz shares continue an abnormal growth of the third day in a row Russian banks are planning to take a fee for storing the currency on analytics accounts do not exclude a new decline Rublen Course By this fall, Bloomberg analyst predicts the end of the year to 69 per dollar. The euro rate exceeded 73 rubles. For the first time since April, analysts predict the weakening of the ruble by the field of media reported on new US sanctions against Russia. Ruble immediately accelerated the fall of the euro dropped to 73 rubles. For the first time since the summer of 2018, the dollar rate fell to the record of the Ministry of Economic Development. Worstered the forecast on the course of the ruble Ministry of Internal Affairs: Moldavian politician is involved in the conclusion of 37 billion rubles. Up to 80 rubles for the first time since September, the dollar is 70 rubles, the euro - on 80. What and when will the collapse in the markets? Analysts voiced forecasts at the rate of Rublence at the beginning of the New Year Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that the Russian economy was less than the "sausage" of the Ministry of Finance prepared amendments to the law on currency regulation ruble again cheaper. The dollar went up to 67 rubles Siluanov told how the Ministry of Finance plans to fight the dollar of the Ministry of Economic Development, published the forecast of the ruble exchange rate until the end of the year the price of oil broke the record of 2014, the ruble strengthened the ruble strengthened against the background of increasing the key bet in Yekaterinburg. Dollar rose rose to 70.25 Ruble, Euro - up to 81.6 rubles. Manufacturers warned about the increase in bread prices. The dollar rate updated the maximum of 2016 Deputy Minister of Finance: "Russia has become stronger due to sanctions" Siluanov called the dollar "Risk tool for settlements"

10.01.20 The ratio of the euro and the ruble in 2020 will remain near the values \u200b\u200bof 2019 with possible fluctuations of up to 10%, in case of exacerbation of the international situation.

Among the economic and political factors affecting the exchange rate, the most important balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, export-oriented sectors of the economy continue to sustainably supply the state from sales receipts in foreign markets. The sanctions do not interfere and affect the more distant future. On the other hand, the tough policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to deter monetary mass in circulation does not allow the appetites of the population and industry in the field of imports.

The risk factor remains a political situation, both external and internal. The external is characterized by the growth of turbulence around the world, however, the probability of catastrophic events in Europe or Russia is small, and the euro-ruble will certainly remain stable. And random fluctuations are collapsed as the most powerful EU economy, so significant gold reserves of the Russian Federation.

As for the domestic political situation, it also tends to deteriorate, the critical collapse in the near future does not threaten.

Automatic forecasting based on statistics on the dynamics of the euro:

• What currency to keep money is a discussion.
• Additionally: dollar rate, default.
• IMPORTANT: What affects the euro rate?

2019

10.01.19 Taking into account December last year, we can safely say that the euro is still where to grow.

However, we see that the ECB monetary policy has not changed since the 2008 crisis and keeps a low interest rate, he continues to issue a European currency, of course, in a digital version, with the subsequent purchase of bonds of commercial banks. What has shown not effective in the last year, when 2.6 billion euros were injected into the economy. However, at the same time, the euro area has grown by only 0.2% and this is the lowest result over the past 4 years.

The ruble presses here as a sanction policy, so traditionally and oil prices. There is also a question of the Northern Flow 2. The continuation of its construction will strengthen the position of the ruble to the euro.

2018

01.09.18 By the middle of the autumn, the euro course can go the frontier of 81 rubles. Sanctions - both in Britain and for elections in the United States.

10.04.18 Before the alleged aggression of Americans in Syria, the euro is growing (ruble relaxes). 78-80 rubles - reaching the plank. However, the pressure on Russia will naturally affect the rest of Europe.

11.01.18 European "know" reached into China. Cross for the United States, attempt to find a patron or a way to flatter in order to pull the arrival of the flush path? There may be a lot of purposes.

However, last year showed a huge disunity within the EU and the already matured protest against the center. The desire of Poland and Hungary to develop contradict the aspirations of Germany. More and more need for closer cooperation with Russia and the search for an internal consensus.

Bulbage with LNG from the United States violates the plans of the Russophobes, and the northern flow 2 is a necessity.

How it will affect the euro. It is obvious that for stabilization will have to sacrifice the course and the parity with the dollar will not succeed. However, it has already ceased to be a goal.

Europe has the opportunity to balance and, if you pacify the conflict in Ukraine and return to previous relations with Russia - the euro will be difficult to shake.

Mostly everything will depend on the ruble. And here many fear that the weakening of the Russian currency pulls down and the euro. In the end, as some analysts believe in Europe, it becomes more and more important to be a servant from the United States or gain great independence along with Russia.

The course will fluctuate from 67 to 69 rubles per euro. Of course, there will be an increase in the event of strengthening sanctions against Russia, but not so significant as a pair of Ruble-dollar, since European countries and Ukraine suffer from sanctions against Russia, where in this case the conflict may be aggravated.

2017

19.07.2017 The G20 Summit showed that Merkel and Macron were skeptical to Russia, despite the obvious request in the European society for friendship and the withdrawal of sanctions. The situation with migrants, sanctions, brekes, internal contradictions are given on the euro, but the ruble is also weakening from the same sanctions, external pressure. 72 ruble per euro.

26.04.17 Elections in France in the event of the victory of Macron will give European currency a powerful credit loan, it can raise the course to 71 rubles. However, current trends (exclusively in technical recalculation) show the possibility of further reduction of euro to 68.5 rubles.

12.12.2016 The European currency after the elections in the United States accelerated its turn to parity with the dollar. And the actions of the ECB to her on this path help: the assets purchase program has been extended until December 17, the total purchases are increased. Moreover, the ECB argues that if necessary, there will be no problems with increasing stimulation.

Early go to parity is unlikely to give, but further decline is expected. Given the growing oil and opposite trends in the Russian currency, we predict the decline in the ruble / euro rate to 66 rubles per euro.

12.12.2016 In 2016, populism in Europe began to gain power, and 2017 the trends will only increase. Negative political news from Europe will be enough to push the euro down.

The decisive factor will be French elections, the popularity of right candidates is growing there. And if the victory of Le Pen is unlikely, the Fiyon may well become president. The election of FIONE will be a positive signal for Russia and growth markers in which it is enough for 2017. In the light of the foregoing, it is worth expecting a ruble exchange rate to the euro in the range of 65-67 rubles / euro.

2016

Regarding the cost of the European currency for Russians, analysts were divided into several camps:

1. Optimists - 60-65 rubles: state economists and some foreign analysts.
2. Realists - 80-90 rubles: Most Western experts.
3. Pessimists - 100-150 rubles: Independent experts who are extremely concerned about the high consumption of cash reserves of the Central Bank.

• First, achieve the growth of the inner gross product, holding the reform of the economy.
• Secondly, civilized and diplomatically solve the conflict situation in Ukraine, having received the abolition of severe and unprofitable sanctions.

An extremely important factor that affects the ruble is the international currency - oil. The increase in the cost of oil reassured and significantly strengthened the country's economy.

If everything goes, as "optimists" predict, it will not be good at once: the first quarter of 2016 will be quite complicated, the price of the European currency can reach 95 rubles, but over time will fall until an acceptable mark.

24.12.2015 The eurozone economy is gradually coming out of the crisis, however, Europeans have a number of "weak" countries that dissolve many of German efforts to stabilize. The violation of relations with Russia is not only about business, but also affects the course of a single currency. And the loss of the Russian market, as well as Russian raw materials is destructive for a number of industries of many eurozone countries. The average euro rate for 2015 is predicted - at 66 rubles.

Keep in mind that currency rates set by the Central Bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can watch the dollar and the euro for today, tomorrow and a week ahead. If you are interested in the further fate of currencies, follow the news and track the updates of quotes.

	Course dollar	Euro	Ruble's exchange rate
Will be the official course on 04/07/2020 (find out through 5 days)	?	?	?
Current official course on 03/28/2020 the most favorable courses in banks	77.7325 -99 kopecks.	85.7389 -23 kopecks.	significantly routinely + 0.79%
Register and trade for forex without investments - start-up capital you get as a gift! With successful trading, the money earned can be taken away!
Since the determination of the last official course on 03/28/2020	significantly increased +77 kopecks.	significantly increased +72 kopecks.	significantly cheaper -0.92% (Oil during this time: -11.94%)
Over the last hour	irisbly increased +5 kopecks	slightly dropped -7 kopecks.	did not change

Current exchange rate on the InstaForex exchange

Forecast of the dollar and euro for a month

Forecast for currencies for April		Forecast of the dollar for the week and month			Forecast euro for the week and month
date	Day of the week	Course	Max.	Min.	Course	Max.	Min.
01.04.2020	wednesday	79.19	80.38	78.00	90.41	91.77	89.05
02.04.2020	thursday	79.12	80.31	77.93	91.13	92.50	89.76
03.04.2020	friday	77.91	79.08	76.74	90.21	91.56	88.86
06.04.2020	monday	77.41	78.57	76.25	89.87	91.22	88.52
07.04.2020	tuesday	78.59	79.77	77.41	91.63	93.00	90.26
08.04.2020	wednesday	76.60	77.75	75.45	88.88	90.21	87.55
09.04.2020	thursday	78.90	80.08	77.72	91.55	92.92	90.18
10.04.2020	friday	79.73	80.93	78.53	91.16	92.53	89.79
13.04.2020	monday	82.07	83.30	80.84	93.89	95.30	92.48
14.04.2020	tuesday	79.61	80.80	78.42	91.07	92.44	89.70
15.04.2020	wednesday	81.47	82.69	80.25	92.48	93.87	91.09
16.04.2020	thursday	83.72	84.98	82.46	94.83	96.25	93.41
17.04.2020	friday	86.23	87.52	84.94	97.18	98.64	95.72
20.04.2020	monday	86.23	87.52	84.94	98.51	99.99	97.03
21.04.2020	tuesday	87.50	88.81	86.19	100.48	101.99	98.97
22.04.2020	wednesday	89.32	90.66	87.98	103.47	105.02	101.92
23.04.2020	thursday	89.31	90.65	87.97	103.08	104.63	101.53
24.04.2020	friday	89.14	90.48	87.80	103.17	104.72	101.62
27.04.2020	monday	88.61	89.94	87.28	103.61	105.16	102.06
28.04.2020	tuesday	89.11	90.45	87.77	104.40	105.97	102.83
29.04.2020	wednesday	90.28	91.63	88.93	107.00	108.61	105.40
30.04.2020	thursday	90.52	91.88	89.16	107.31	108.92	105.70

What depends on the dollar rate, factors affecting currency courses

If you are interested in buying or selling euro or dollar, the currency rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today both monetary units demonstrate significant volatility. This is due primarily with political factors.

What affects the US dollar and euros:

• decisions made by diplomats as part of international cooperation. Yesterday, Angela Merkel declared his readiness to make an agreement with Russia - the euro fell a little in relation to the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar rate will jum up to heaven. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or earn money on the purchase / sale of currency, you need to monitor political news;
• economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic shifts within Russia affect the position of the ruble, respectively, and on the course of foreign currencies to it;
• solutions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the exacerbation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the races of currency rates to the ruble with their own resources. Today, the dollar and the euro's volatility decreased slightly, and a considerable role in this was played by the containment system of the Russian banking network.

Previous forecasts of courses

We all remember times when the dollar's exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro held at 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these courses have not appeared for several years on the banks and exchange offices. Below is our forecast for currency rates a few days before the start of the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is simply presented to the memory ...

Dear visitors of the site "Forecast course of currencies for tomorrow", we draw your attention that the forecast of the dollar and the euro course is given only for informational purposes and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of prediction data, because Currency courses depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, a broker, a financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict a currency rate for tomorrow, for a week or a month with an accuracy of 100%!

On Thursday, the ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting, from which the markets do not expect any special changes. However, the subsequent press conference of the chapter of the European Central Bank Mario Dragi may clarify the regulator's plans for the prospects for reducing the financial stimulation program and the interest rate change.

Given the correctional decline in the dollar in the market, is this not a good opportunity for shopping?

Do not open deals in advance!

The previous meeting of the ECB was supported (important assessments and forecasts were published) and caused a stormy reaction in the foreign exchange market. In particular, the single currency has lost 2.5% during the reaction to comments 6 weeks ago.

Recalling the meeting of the mid-June, I want warp on to open a position in advance. The single currency added for two days before the meeting, and immediately after the publication comment, the reaction was also in the form of purchases. And only after the euro took off to monthly maxima, active sales began.

It is also not necessary to believe naively that if Dragi collapsed the euro last time, this time it will definitely support the strengthening of a single currency.

It is also not necessary to think that the ECB "will raise up the legs up" and perform with a rigid rhetoric (positive for the euro) in the light of Comments by Trump, that the policies of the eurozone and China contribute to the cheapening of their own currencies. Probably dragi will have to remind the independence of the ECB.

Germany will not allow the meeting to be positive

At the same time, it is worth considering that over the past 6 weeks from the past meeting, we received the actual introduction of response from the European Union, the deterioration of business moods from ZEW and the foreign trade balance indicators on the one hand and increasing inflationary pressure on the other. However, it should be borne in mind that inflation trends are much easier to predict, and a significant part of current data has already been laid on market quotes and expectations of market participants.

In my opinion, it is worth paying attention to how negatively in German business circles assess the harm from trade wars. This is a factor to which there is still an impact on the actual business activity. I also think that such a serious uncertainty factor will not allow the ECB to speak with a more positive rhetoric than in the middle of last month.

Softness from Dragi is better not to wait

If markets think a similar way, the positive tone and tightening of the rhetoric Draghi will be a real surprise for markets and a powerful supporting factor for the growth of a single currency with the potential to increase the maxima of June in 1.1850.

However, it is more likely to maintain a soft tone in the policy of the bank and even great concern about the uncertainty around "trade wars". Such a position is unlikely to become a reason for repetition of the collapse of June, but will potentially be able to cool the unified currency buyers dust, deploying EURUSD down from the top border of the trading range 1.150-1.1750.