Risks worth considering in a business plan. Risk analysis of investment projects

Remark 1

There are no projects without risks.

As the complexity of the project increases, the number and magnitude of associated risks increases. When managing projects intelligently, the most important thing to think about is not intermediate risk analysis activities, but rather how to develop a response plan to reduce the risk level.

The concept of project implementation risk

Definition 1

The risk of project implementation is a probable event that leads to the fact that the entity that made the decision loses the opportunity to achieve the planned result of the project or its individual parameters, characterized by time, quantitative and cost estimates.

Project risks are always associated with uncertainty, which is a state of objective conditions for accepting a project for execution, which does not allow planning the consequences of decisions due to the incompleteness and inaccuracy of available information. If there is no information about the risk, then it becomes unknown, and it is necessary to lay a special reserve for it without implementing management procedures. For a threat for which there is at least a minimum of information, a response plan can be worked out, which makes risk minimization possible.

It seems expedient to carry out a repeated risk assessment during the implementation of the project. The most optimal risk minimization occurs during the development of a project idea or at the time of approval of project documentation.

The main risks inherent in most projects include:

• marketing risk;
• the risk of disrupting the project schedule;
• the risk of non-compliance with the project budget;
• general economic risks.

Marketing risk implies the risk of losing profits due to a decrease in sales volumes or the price of a product. The reasons for the emergence of risks of non-compliance with the schedule or exceeding the project budget can be both objective factors (change in customs duties during customs clearance of equipment, which leads to cargo delay), and subjective factors (low quality of elaboration or inconsistency of work).

General economic risks are risks that are associated with external factors for the enterprise (changes in exchange rates and interest rates, increased or weakened inflation).

Elements of project risk assessment

The modern methodology of risk management for project implementation provides for active work with the causes and consequences of identified hazards and threats. Risk management is a set of interconnected processes that are based on identification, risk assessment, determination of measures to reduce the scale of adverse consequences arising from the occurrence of a risk event.

The main procedures for assessing the risks of project implementation:

1. identification;
2. analysis;
3. drawing up a response plan;
4. control and monitoring.

Identification is the definition of risk based on the identified factors of its occurrence, as well as documenting its parameters. A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the sources of occurrence and the likelihood of adverse consequences constitute the actual assessment procedure. In the course of planning the response to the detected factors, it is planned to develop measures to reduce the negative impact on the parameters and results of the project. Due to the dynamism and uniqueness of the events of the associated risks, project activities especially need an effective monitoring and control system involved at each stage of the project life cycle.

Project implementation risk management

Risk management of project activities implies the following:

• the participants' understanding of the threats and uncertainties in the project implementation environment, their causes and possible negative events as a result of the emergence of risks.
• search for opportunities for effective and efficient solution of design problems, taking into account the identified uncertainty.
• identifying ways to reduce the risks of project implementation.
• finalization of the project plan taking into account emerging risks and a set of measures to reduce them.

Remark 2

If, according to the results of the assessment, the project can be accepted for execution, then the enterprise will have to solve the problem of managing the identified risk. In case of high uncertainty of the project, it should be sent for revision, after which a qualitative and quantitative risk assessment is performed again.

As shown by the competition of business plans, held by the company "Corporate Finance" and the magazine "Financial Director", the most common mistake of enterprises planning to implement investment projects is insufficient study of the risks that can affect the profitability of projects 1. Since such mistakes can lead to incorrect investment decisions and significant losses, it is very important to timely identify and assess all project risks.

Project risks are generally understood to be the expected deterioration in the final performance indicators of the project, arising under the influence of uncertainty. In quantitative terms, risk is usually defined as the change in the numerical indicators of a project: net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period (PB) 2.

At the moment, there is no single classification of project risks of the enterprise. However, the following main risks inherent in almost all projects can be identified: marketing risk, risk of non-compliance with the project schedule, risk of exceeding the project budget, as well as general economic risks.

Further, we will consider the risks of the project using the example of a jewelry factory, which decided to bring a new product to the market - gold chains 3. For the production of the product, imported equipment is purchased. It will be installed in the premises of the enterprise that is planned to be built. The price for the main raw material - gold - is determined in US dollars based on the results of trading on the London Metal Exchange. Planned sales volume - 15 kg per month. The products are supposed to be sold both through their own stores (30%), some of which are located in large shopping centers, and through dealers (70%). Sales have a pronounced seasonality with a spike in December and a decline in sales in April-May. The launch of the equipment should take place before the winter peak of sales. The project will be completed in five years. Managers consider the net present value (NPV) as the main indicator of project efficiency. The estimated planned NPV is $ 1,765 thousand.

Main types of project risks

Marketing risk

Marketing risk is the risk of a shortfall in profit as a result of a decrease in sales volume or product price. This risk is one of the most significant for most investment projects. The reason for its occurrence may be the rejection of the new product by the market or an overly optimistic estimate of the future sales volume. Mistakes in planning a marketing strategy arise mainly due to insufficient study of market needs: incorrect product positioning, incorrect assessment of market competitiveness or incorrect pricing. Also, mistakes in the promotion policy, for example, choosing the wrong way of promotion, insufficient promotion budget, etc., can lead to risk.

So, in our example 30% of the chains are planned to be sold independently, and 70% through dealers. If the sales structure turns out to be different, for example, 20% - through stores and 80% - through dealers, for whom lower prices are set, then the company will not receive the initially planned profit and, as a result, the project performance will worsen. This situation can be avoided primarily through a comprehensive assessment of the market environment by the marketing department.

External factors can also influence the rate of sales growth. For example, some of the company's own stores in the case in question opens in new shopping centers, respectively, the volume of sales in them will depend on the degree of "promotion" of these centers. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk, it is necessary to establish quality parameters in the lease agreement. Thus, the rental rate may depend on the fulfillment of the schedule for launching retail space by the shopping center, ensuring the transportation of buyers to the point of sale, timely construction of parking lots, launching entertainment centers, etc.

Risks of not meeting the schedule and exceeding the project budget

The reasons for such risks can be objective (for example, changes in customs legislation at the time of customs clearance of equipment and, as a result, cargo delay) and subjective (for example, insufficient study and inconsistency of work on project implementation). The risk of non-compliance with the project schedule leads to an increase in the payback period, both directly and due to lost revenue. IN our case this risk will be great: if the company does not have time to start selling a new product before the end of the winter peak of sales, it will incur heavy losses.

Likewise, the risk of over-budgeting affects overall project performance.

Determination of the real term and budget of the project

For a more accurate assessment of the project term and budget, there are special methods, in particular, the PERT analysis method ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique), developed in the 60s of the XX century by the US Navy and NASA to estimate the construction time of the Polaris ballistic missile. The technique proved to be effective and was subsequently used to estimate not only the timing, but also the resources of the project. Currently, PERT analysis is one of the most popular and simplest techniques.

The meaning of this method is that when preparing a project, three estimates of the implementation period (project cost) are set - optimistic, pessimistic and the most probable. The expected values \u200b\u200bare then calculated using the following formula: Expected term (cost) \u003d (Optimistic term (cost) + 4 x Most probable term (cost) + Pessimistic term (cost)): 6. Coefficients 4 and 6 were obtained empirically based on statistical data from a large number of projects. The calculation result is used in the future as a basis for obtaining the rest of the project indicators. However, it should be noted that the PERT analysis scheme is only effective if you can justify the values \u200b\u200bof all three estimates.

If the work is performed by external contractors, then as a way to minimize these risks, special conditions can be negotiated in the contract. So, in our example, when preparing a project, work is planned on the construction of premises and installation of equipment, carried out by an external contractor. The duration of these works should be three months, the cost - 500 thousand US dollars. After the completion of the work, the company plans to receive additional proceeds from the production of chains in the amount of 120 thousand US dollars per month at a profitability of 25%. If, due to the fault of the supplier, the duration of the repair and installation increases, say, by one month, then the company will receive less profit in the amount of $ 30,000 (1 x 120 x 25%). To avoid this, the contract stipulates sanctions in the amount of 6% of the contract value for one month of delay due to the fault of the contractor, that is, USD 30 thousand (500 thousand x 6%). Thus, the amount of the sanction is equal to the possible loss.

When implementing a project only on our own, it is much more difficult to minimize risks, while the volume of losses may increase.

In our example if the equipment is installed in-house, in the event of a one-month delay, the profit loss will also amount to $ 30,000. However, you should consider the additional labor costs of workers during this month. Let us assume that such costs are $ 7,000 in our example. Thus, the total losses of the company will be equal to USD 37 thousand, and the project payback period will increase by 1.23 months (1 month + USD 7 thousand: (USD 120 thousand x 25%)). Therefore, in this case, a more accurate assessment of the duration and cost of work is required, as well as effective management of the project implementation process and its constant monitoring.

General economic risks

General economic risks include risks associated with external factors in relation to the enterprise, for example, risks of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, increased or weakened inflation. Such risks can also include the risk of increased competition in the industry due to the general development of the economy in the country and the risk of new players entering the market. It should be noted that this type of risk is possible both for individual projects and for the company as a whole.

In our example the most significant is the currency risk. When calculating a project, all cash flows are often given in a stable currency, for example, in US dollars. However, for a more accurate accounting of foreign exchange risk, cash flows should be calculated in the currency in which the payment is made. Otherwise, you can get an underestimated currency risk, since exchange rate fluctuations will not be taken into account. For example, if both inflows and investments are calculated in one currency, and the dollar rate grows, but the ruble price of the product does not change, then in fact we will receive less revenue in dollar terms. Using different currencies for the calculation will allow you to take this factor into account, but one currency will not. This is especially true in our case, when all capital investments for the repair of the building and the acquisition of equipment are made in foreign currency, and the proceeds from the sale of products are in rubles.

Analysis of project risks

The procedure for assessing and analyzing project risks can be presented in the form of a diagram (see Fig. 1).

Risk assessment is carried out during the project planning process and includes qualitative and quantitative analysis. If, based on the results of the assessment, the project is accepted for execution, then the enterprise faces the task of managing the identified risks. According to the results of the project, statistics are accumulated, which allows in the future to more accurately determine the risks and work with them. If the uncertainty of the project is too high, then it can be sent for revision, after which the risk assessment is performed again.

The procedure for managing project risks, as well as collecting and using statistical information in a particular situation depends on the specifics of the company and the project being implemented and is not considered in this article.

Let's consider the qualitative and quantitative assessment of project risks in more detail.

Qualitative risk analysis

The result of a qualitative risk analysis is a description of the uncertainties inherent in the project, the reasons that cause them, and, as a result, the risks of the project. For the description, it is convenient to use specially designed logical maps - a list of questions that help identify existing risks. These maps can be developed either independently or with the help of consultants (see Fig. 2).

As a result, a list of risks to which the project is exposed will be formed. Further, they must be ranked according to the degree of importance and the magnitude of possible losses, and the main risks must be analyzed using quantitative methods for a more accurate assessment of each of them.

In our example analysts identified the following main risks: failure to achieve planned sales volumes both due to their lower physical volume (in kind) and due to lower prices, as well as a decrease in the profit margin due to higher prices for raw materials.

Quantitative risk analysis

A quantitative risk analysis is necessary in order to assess how the most significant risk factors can affect the performance indicators of an investment project. The analysis allows you to find out, for example, whether a small change in the volume of sales will lead to a significant loss of profit or the project will be profitable even if 40% of the planned sales volume is realized.

There are several basic methods for conducting such an analysis: analysis of the influence of individual factors (sensitivity analysis), analysis of the influence of a complex of factors (scenario analysis) and simulation (Monte Carlo method). Let's consider each of them in more detail, using the indicators of our example.

Sensitivity analysis. This is a standard method of quantitative analysis, which consists in changing the values \u200b\u200bof critical parameters ( in our case physical volume of sales, cost and selling price), substituting them into the financial model of the project and calculating the project performance indicators with each such change. Sensitivity analysis can be implemented using both specialized software packages (Project Expert, Alt-Invest) and Excel. Calculations for analysis are most conveniently presented in the form of a table (see Table 1).

This calculation is carried out for all critical factors of the project. It is more convenient to show the degree of their impact on the final project efficiency (in this case on NPV) on a graph (see Fig. 3).

Thus, the result of the project under consideration is most strongly influenced by the selling price, then the cost of production and, finally, the physical volume of sales.

Despite the fact that the selling price has a large impact on NPV, the probability of its fluctuation can be very low, therefore, changes in this factor will pose little risk. To determine this probability, the so-called "probability tree" is used. First, based on expert opinions, the probability of the first level is determined - the probability that the real price will change, that is, it will become more, less or equal to the planned one ( in our case these probabilities are equal to 30, 30 and 40%), and then the probability of the second level is the probability of a deviation by a certain amount. In our example the line of reasoning is as follows: if the price is still less than the planned one, then with a probability of 60% the deviation will be no more than -10%, with a probability of 30% - from -10 to -20% and with a probability of 10% - from -20 to -30% ... Deviations in the positive direction are analyzed in a similar way. Experts considered it impossible to deviate more than 30% in any direction.

The final probability of deviation of the selling price from the planned value is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of the first and second levels, therefore the final probability of a price reduction by 20% is rather small - 9% (30% x 30%) (see Table 2).

Total NPV Risk in our example is calculated as the sum of the products of the total probability and the risk value for each deviation and is equal to USD 6.63 thousand (1700 x 0.03 + 1123 x 0.09 + 559 x 0.18 - 550 x 0.18 - 1092 x 0.09 - 1626 x 0.03). Then the expected value of NPV, adjusted for the risk associated with a change in the selling price, will be equal to 1758 thousand USD (1765 (planned NPV) - 6.63 (expected risk)).

Thus, the risk of changes in the selling price reduces the NPV of the project by USD 6.63 thousand. As a result of a similar analysis of two other critical factors, it turned out that the most dangerous is the risk of changes in the physical volume of sales: the expected value of this risk was USD 202 thousand, and the expected value of the cost price change risk - USD 123 thousand. It turns out that the change in the retail price is not the most important risk for the project under consideration and can be neglected by focusing on managing and preventing other risks.

Sensitivity analysis is very clear, but its main drawback is that only one of the factors is analyzed, and the rest are considered unchanged. In practice, several indicators usually change at once. Scenario analysis helps to assess such a situation and adjust the NPV of the project for the amount of risk.

Scenario analysis. First, you need to define a list of critical factors that will change at the same time. To do this, using the results of sensitivity analysis, you can select 2-4 factors that have the greatest impact on the result of the project. It makes no sense to consider simultaneously more factors, since this only complicates the calculations.

Usually three scenarios are considered: optimistic, pessimistic and the most probable, but if necessary, their number can be increased. In each of the scenarios, the corresponding values \u200b\u200bof the selected factors are recorded, after which the project performance indicators are calculated. The results are tabulated (see Table 3).

As with sensitivity analysis, each scenario is assigned a probability of its realization based on expert estimates. The data for each scenario is substituted into the main financial model of the project, and the expected values \u200b\u200bof NPV and the magnitude of risk are determined. The magnitude of the probabilities, as in the previous case, must be justified.

The expected NPV in this case will be 1572 thousand USD (-1637 x 0.2 + 3390 x 0.3 + 1765 x 0.5). Thus, in contrast to the previous stage of the analysis, we received one more accurate comprehensive assessment of efficiency, which will be used in further decisions on the project. It should be noted that the large gap between the planned and estimated NPV values \u200b\u200bindicates a high project uncertainty. Perhaps there are additional risk factors in the project that need to be considered.

Simulation modeling. In the case when accurate parameter estimates (for example, 90, 110 and 80%, as in scenario analysis) cannot be set, and analysts can only determine the intervals of possible fluctuations of the indicator, they use the Monte Carlo simulation method. Most often, such an analysis is carried out to identify currency risks (fluctuations in the exchange rate during the year), as well as risks of fluctuations in interest rates, macroeconomic risks, and others.

Due to its complexity, calculations by the Monte Carlo method are always carried out using software products that have the appropriate function (Project Expert, Alt-Invest, Excel). The main meaning of the calculations is as follows. At the first stage, the boundaries are set in which the parameter can be changed. Then the program randomly (simulating the randomness of market processes) selects the values \u200b\u200bof this parameter from the specified interval and calculates the project efficiency indicator, substituting the selected value into the financial model. Several hundred such experiments are carried out (with electronic calculations, this takes several minutes), and a set of NPV values \u200b\u200bare obtained, for which the mean (m) and the risk value (standard deviation, d) are calculated. In accordance with the statistical rule (the so-called "three sigma rule"), the NPV value will be in the following intervals (see Table 4):

• with a probability of 68.3% - in the range of m ± d;
• with a probability of 94.5% - in the range of m ± 2d;
• with a probability of 99.7% - in the range of m ± 3d.

As can be seen from the table, m \u003d 1725, d \u003d 142. This means that the most probable NPV value will fluctuate around 1725. Applying the “three sigma” rule, we obtain that the NPV value falls within the range of 1725 ± (3 x 142), even the lower bound of which is greater than zero. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the result of our project will be positive. If, with a two- or three-fold deviation, a negative result was obtained (this is possible with a low NPV of the project or high sensitivity to the factor), then using the "three sigma" rule it is possible to determine what the probability of this deviation is, and to draw a conclusion about the possibility of an unfavorable the outcome. For example, if at m ± d the NPV value\u003e 0, and at m -2d the NPV< 0, это значит, что с вероятностью до 13,1% ((94,5% - 68,3%) : 2) эффективность проекта отрицательна, он имеет довольно высокий риск и может быть пересмотрен.

In our example, the project for the production of gold chains as a whole is characterized by a low share of risk, since with a very high probability the NPV of the project has a positive value, and the calculated maximum risk value for the implementation of the pessimistic scenario is 193 thousand US dollars (1765 thousand - 1572 thousand) ... Consequently, the project can be accepted. Nevertheless, it is worth insuring against the risk of failure to meet the deadlines for launching capacities (construction and installation of equipment), as well as against the risk of increased costs (for example, by purchasing options to buy gold). In addition, you need to pay attention to the promotion of the goods: the advertising policy of the company and the choice of the place of sale. This can be done by building on previous practice or by working out lease agreements and contracts for the supply of chains to distributors.

In conclusion, we note that the application of the described approach to the analysis of project risks often allows, already at the first stage of project assessment, to make a decision on its further development, as well as to draw conclusions about possible ways to minimize risks. It should be emphasized that a prerequisite for such an analysis should be substantiated expert assessments, otherwise the efficiency of work will be low.

"The more complex the business model of the project, the more carefully it is necessary to assess the risks."

Interview with the director of the corporate finance department of the investment company "ATON" (Moscow) Dmitry Aleevsky

- Are there, in your opinion, differences between project and operational risks of the company?

It seems to me that there are no fundamental differences between these risks. Project risks are a logical continuation of operational risks, since most of the company's projects are carried out on the basis of an already existing business model.

“However, companies assess the riskiness of a particular project, if only in order to understand how its implementation will affect the overall risk of the business. How carefully should you approach the assessment of project risks?

Approaches to assessing such risks should depend mainly on how typical a given project is for the company, and not on the amount required to implement it. For example, the construction of a new retail store can be a high-budget project, but its implementation will use technologies already known by companies that will guarantee the store an influx of customers and a stable income: analysis of market capacity, determination of consumer preferences in a given area and appropriate advertising.

If a company decides to diversify its business and acquire, for example, a network of gas stations in order to place its stores on them, then it will have to face a completely different level of risk. For retailers, this business will be completely new, and they will have to take into account factors unknown to them: the purchase of gasoline, pricing, placement of gas stations, etc. If the decision to open another store can be made on the basis that the company needs a presence in the area , then the decision to purchase gas stations should be worked out to the smallest detail, since the risk of such an investment will be immeasurably higher due to the uniqueness of the project for this company. In addition, with the new acquisition, the core business will also change: supply chains become more complex, and managers will have to make decisions in an area they are not familiar with. Thus, the more complex the project's business model, the more thoroughly it is necessary to assess the risks.

- In what sequence are the project risk assessment activities carried out?

First, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis are carried out, which are based on a simplified definition of the project parameters (discount rate, environmental conditions, etc.). This allows you to either reject the project, or make a decision to conduct a more detailed study and determine the directions for further work. In case of a positive result of the research, all aspects are worked out that may in one way or another affect the outcome of the project. Then again a quantitative analysis is carried out on the basis of updated data and measures to eliminate (insurance) the risks identified in the course of work. In the end, if a decision is made to implement a project, then the total level of its risk, that is, the amount that the investor will lose in case of failure (taking into account all insurance activities), should not exceed an acceptable value, for example, 20% of the NPV of the project.

Interviewed by Anna Netesova

1 For more details on the results of the competition, see the article "How not to be mistaken when drawing up a business plan", "Financial Director", 2003, No. 4. - Note. edition.
2 Formulas for calculating these indicators are not provided in this article, since they have already been published in our journal (see the article "Assessment of the cash flow of an investment project", "Financial Director", 2002, No. 4). In addition, these formulas can be found in any textbook on financial management or investment appraisal. - Note. edition.
3 In order to maintain the confidentiality of commercial information, the author considers an example with conditional data, which is based on a real project from his personal experience. - Note. edition.

Project risks call such events (or conditions) that have a negative or positive impact on one or more of the goals of the project. Project risks include timing, price, quality, or content. The risk depends on a specific project, for example, when a goal for the final result is determined according to a certain action plan, or the final result should be a project that does not exceed the cost specified in the budget, and so on. It can be triggered by several reasons, which in turn will affect certain factors of the project.

Project risks: understanding the concepts

Project risk - This is an effect that allows you to accumulate the likelihood of a series of events that will positively or negatively affect the goals of the project itself. They are divided into two types: known and unknown. As a rule, known threats can be recognized at the beginning of the project, which allows them to be managed - to create contingency plans of action that provide for possible losses. And unknown risks cannot be determined in advance, so it is impossible to predict further actions.

Risk event - This is an event that can occur during the implementation of the project, while it will bring benefit or damage.

The likelihood of a risk - the possible onset of the threat. Each risk in the implementation of the project has a share of more than 0%, but less than 100%. Risk with 0% probability is not considered a risk as it cannot happen. And the risk with a probability of 100% is also not a risk, but a real event, which is necessarily provided for by the project.

Consequences of risk - labor costs, money, failure of the action plan - determine the degree of impact on the implementation of project goals.

Risk magnitude - exponential value that combines its likelihood with consequences. Formula for calculating the amount of risk \u003d likelihood of the risk occurring * appropriate action

Reserve for contingencies (or a reserve to cover uncertainty) - represents a certain amount of money or a time period. All that is needed to calculate the reduction of the risks of cost overruns provided by the project objectives to a cost level that is acceptable to the organization. A contingency reserve is included in the project cost baseline.

Management reserve - also presented in the form of cash or a certain period of time, which are not included in the baseline plan for the cost of the project, but are used by the head of the enterprise in order to prevent possible negative consequences that cannot be predicted.

Risk tolerance - determining the degree of preparedness of the organization for possible threats Some organizations are ready to take risks, while other organizations in every possible way bypass these risks. Someone takes big risks in order to earn even more, while someone eschews problems associated with the loss of finances.

At its core, risk is a form of uncertainty. But, however, there is a significant difference between the two.

Uncertainty Is a set of factors that do not determine the outcome of actions, and the degree of possible influence of these factors is unknown in advance. Uncertainty is also the incompleteness and inaccuracy of presenting information about certain conditions of work on the project. Uncertainty is caused by external or internal factors. External factors are understood as legislation, the influence and reaction of the market to the demand and production of goods, the activities of competitors. Internal factors include the professionalism of the organization's employees, the proportion of errors in the definitions of design characteristics, and others.

Riskis a possible, qualitatively and financially measurable loss. The concept of "project risk" reflects the degree of danger for the positive implementation of the project. The concept of risk is the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of negative situations in the implementation of the project, entailing adverse consequences. Such risks arise from objective and subjective probabilities.

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Main types of project risks

Systematic risks do not lend themselves to the influence and management of the project management. They are always there. These include:

• political factor (political situation in the country, changes in the socio-economic sphere);
• natural factors, ecology, natural disasters;
• legal, legal risks (imperfection of the legal framework);
• economic risks (instability of the exchange rate in the currency market, taxation, sanctions, and others).

The size of the systematic, or "market" risk does not depend on the specifics of a particular project, but on the market situation as a whole. In those countries where the stock market is well developed, a special coefficient β has been introduced to determine the degree of impact of these risks on an ongoing project, the use of which is based on stock market statistics for each specific industry or organization. In our country, this statistics is not widespread; on the basis of this, it is customary to use expert estimates. Depending on the likelihood of risk, various measures are envisaged in order to avoid negative consequences during the implementation of projects. Certain scenarios for the development of the project plan are developed, based on a number of external conditions.

There are so many reasons why law enforcement officers come to the company, as if the very conduct of business is already suspicious. It doesn't matter how strictly you yourself comply with the legal requirements. If at least one of your contractorsfalls into the sphere of attention of law enforcement officers, the likelihood of a visit by the security officials is very high.

Non-systematic risks can be eliminated partially or completely, thanks to competent project management:

• production-related (non-fulfillment of the sales plan, works, production volumes, etc.);
• associated with financial losses (shortfall in profit from the project, lack of product liquidity);
• related to the market situation (instability of pricing policy, new competitors in the business niche).

Most of the non-systematic risks are manageable. They are divided into several groups, based on their influence on the implementation of the project.

The risk of not receiving the expected income from the project

Impact: the project is not efficient, has a NPV value (negative value). In this case, we mean a global increase in the payback period of the project. This group includes risks associated with financial flows in the operational phase, namely:

Marketing risk - the possibility of a loss of profit due to the fact that the sales plan was not fulfilled or a large-scale decrease in sales prices was made against the background of the planned ones. The profit of the project is determined by the revenue, and to a greater extent affects the efficiency. That is why marketing risks are key among all possible ones. In order to reduce the likelihood of its occurrence, a thorough study of the market situation is required, the identification of factors that can affect the project, forecasting their appearance or strengthening, identifying ways to eliminate the negative consequences of these factors. By factors we mean all kinds of changes in the market in a particular business area, increased competition, weak market position, decreased demand and prices for the project's products, etc. It is important to qualitatively assess marketing risks especially when it comes to launching a new production or increasing existing production capacity. If the goal is to reduce production costs, then they are studied last.

Example: if we are talking about the construction of a hotel, then marketing risks affect two characteristics: the cost of rooms and their occupancy. If the investor has established the cost of rooms based on the location of the hotel and its class, then the main factor of uncertainty will be occupancy by guests. It is necessary to determine the ability of a given enterprise to "survive" at various values \u200b\u200bof occupancy. Possible values \u200b\u200bof this parameter are revealed by the statistics of the study of the hospitality market in a particular area. If there are no statistics, then the values \u200b\u200bare set analytically.

The risk of exceeding the production cost of products

The case when the costs exceed the planned funds for the implementation of the project, which entails a decrease in profits. In this case, you need to analyze the costs of your enterprise and similar (possibly competing with yours) suppliers of raw materials (remoteness, delivery, availability of an alternative), and predict the cost of raw materials.

Example: let's say that there is agricultural products in the raw materials consumed by the project, or, for example, an impressive part of the cost is the cost of oil products, thus, one should take into account the dependence of prices for raw materials on specific factors: the volume of the harvested crop, market conditions, energy costs, etc. etc. Naturally, raw material costs cannot be fully included in the product price. In this case, it is especially important to study the dependence of the project results on the amplitude of the cost price in a certain period of time.

1. Technological risks - associated with a shortfall in profit due to the fact that the production plan was not fulfilled or the production cost increased due to the use of new technologies.

Technological risk factors:

1. Features of the technology used - well-established production processes, their applicability in certain conditions, the compliance of raw materials, etc.
2. Bad faith of the equipment supplier - disruptions in the supply of equipment, marriage, poor quality service.
3. Lack of available service for servicing the purchased equipment - the lack of regional service offices leads to long production downtime.

Example: Consider the technological risks in the construction of a brick factory. The initial conditions are: the premises are available, the equipment is purchased, the sources of raw materials are known, and the equipment is supplied by one well-known manufacturer in the form of a turnkey production line. In this case, technological risks should be minimal. And if, in a project with the construction of a brick factory, only the place where the quarries are located for the extraction of raw materials is known, and the building needs to be built, the equipment must be purchased and installed at your own expense and by different suppliers - the technological risks will be enormous! Most likely, a third-party investor will have the right to demand additional guarantees or removal of risk factors.

2. Administrative risks - associated with the loss of profits due to the excessive influence of administrative power. If the government is interested in the implementation of the project, then these risks are significantly reduced.

Example: A common risk associated with difficulties in obtaining a building permit. Banks rarely engage in financing commercial real estate projects without the necessary permission, considering these risks unreasonable.

You will be taught how to successfully confront risks and choose the best anti-crisis strategy for your company in a course from the School of the CEO.

Insufficient liquidity risk

Manifestation: at the end of the forecast period, the budget has a negative cash balance. Risks of investment projects may arise, and in the operational phase:

The risk of exceeding the project budget. It arises due to the fact that more investments were required than previously planned. This risk can be significantly mitigated by detailed investment analysis at the planning stage of the project. This requires comparing it with similar projects, industries, analyzing the technology chain, viewing the complete project diagram, setting the amount of money turnover. It is recommended to plan for unforeseen expenses. Exceeding the budget by 10% will be considered the norm. Based on this, a limit of available funds should be foreseen when referring to a loan for a project.

The risk of discrepancy between the investment schedule and the financing schedule. Financial investments come with a time delay or not in the volume that was planned. Or there is a tight bank loan schedule that does not allow for the slightest deviation from payments. In order to avoid the negative consequences of the risk, you should initially reserve your own money, or, as for credit funds, when signing the agreement, take into account the possibility of fluctuations in the timing of the withdrawal of money.

The risk of a shortage of funds at the stage of reaching the design capacity. It is he who provokes a delay in the operational phase, a slowdown in the pace of reaching the planned capacity of the project. The reason lies in the unconsidered working capital at the planning stage.

Risk of lack of funds in the operational phase. Internal and external factors influence the decrease in profits and the lack of finance to pay off credit obligations and debts to suppliers. If credit funds are attracted for the implementation of a project, then one of the main ways to reduce the risk of a shortage of funds is to use the debt coverage ratio extracted during the construction of a loan repayment schedule. The method is to establish the fluctuation in the money earned by the company in accordance with the forecasts of market situations and the economy as a whole. Thus, with a coverage ratio of 1.3, the company will lose 30% of its profits, but retain the ability to repay its loan obligations.

Example: initially, the construction of, for example, a business center will not seem to be a risky project if you study only price fluctuations. Statistics show that fluctuations will not be so great over the general period of the project's existence. But the situation is completely different when the rates of renting and debit with credit are taken into account. A business center built with credit funds will easily go bankrupt even in a short period of crisis. This is exactly what happened with a huge number of objects that began their activities at the end of 2008.

The risk of non-fulfillment of the planned work in the investment phase for organizational or other reasons

Impact: The start of the operational phase is delayed or not fully started. There is a pattern that the complexity of a project directly depends on the requirements for the quality of its management. In order to minimize this risk, it is necessary to select a team of qualified specialists to manage the project, select the most profitable options for the supply of equipment, conclude contracts with contractors for a turnkey project, etc.

• Project management: 10 conditions for successful implementation

Practitioner tells

Alexey Kosarev, Head of the Department of System Analysis and Risk Management, OJSC Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Plant.

Any risks are grouped according to certain types. Personally, I stick with considering the following:

• related to the pricing of the project's products, as well as the prices of the raw materials, materials and services used;
• property (meaning loss or damage to fixed assets);
• market (tracking the exchange rate, stock indices, asset values, securities);
• related to theft and fraudsters.

For manufacturing enterprises, accidents, accidents at work, etc. become special risks. For trade enterprises, risks are logistics, intermediation in the supply and sale, unscrupulous suppliers (especially if there is only one supplier), accounts receivable from wholesale buyers (especially if payment is made with a deferred payment).

At the enterprise where I work, a list of certain risks and provoking factors was formed. Each risk has a specific and unambiguous formulation, which makes it possible to consider in detail the causes of their occurrence, and greatly simplifies the processes of assessing risks and developing measures to reduce them. A very convenient way to analyze risks is their graphic representation in the form of a table of coordinates "damage" / "probability". There is not much difference in their presentation as a map or in a table. We just think that it is most convenient for us to represent risks on the coordinate plane. The dynamics are clearly visible on it. And in general, the enlarged view is useful when automating a management system, especially you need to have information about risks regarding activities, business processes or structural divisions of an enterprise.

Project risks and dealing with them: 6 main steps

Step 1. Planning risk management

Risk management planning needs to be as careful as planning the cost and schedule of the project itself. It should be borne in mind that well-planned risks increase the likelihood of achieving the set goals.

Risk Management Planning - is a process in which approaches are determined and actions are planned for managing project risks. The strategy of the organization is formed, the basic rules are formulated, which allows them to be managed.

There are 4 sources of information for organizing project risk planning processes:

1. Environmental factors of the enterprise. The attitude of the people involved in the project has a huge impact on the project management plan.
2. Organizational Process Assets. Each organization may have predefined approaches to risk management, such as categories or general definitions of concepts, templates, standards, designation schemes for responsible personnel, and documents defining the levels of authority in making important decisions.
3. Description of the content of the project.
4. Project management plan.

The planning and review meetings are considered to be a tool and method for planning risk management. The meetings are attended by the project team, the project manager, representatives of the organization who are responsible for planning the risks and the possible reaction of the company to them. The meeting participants draw up the basic plans for the risk management operations, develop the cost components and planned operations included in the project budget and its schedule. At the meeting, the degree of responsibility is distributed among the project participants in the event of a risk. If the organization has general templates that define risk categories, terms (such as levels of risks, the likelihood of their occurrence by type, possible consequences of risks for the project, a matrix of probabilities and consequences), then they are adapted for each specific project, taking into account its specifics. And then a risk management plan is already being formed.

Step 2. Risk identification

Risk identification is the process of identifying risks that may affect a project in any way, as well as documenting their characteristics. Project team members and risk management experts identify them. Customers of the project, participants and experts of a narrow profile can also take part in it. The process of identifying risks is iterative, since new ones may arise during the development of the project. Each special project has its own unique composition of participants and frequency of iteration. Participation of project team members in the risk identification process helps to develop a sense of ownership and responsibility for each risk and their further actions to respond to them.

The inputs to the risk identification process are:

1. Enterprise environmental factors - information comes from open sources, taking into account commercial databases, scientific papers and other research works in the field of risk management.
2. Organizational Process Assets - Information about the implementation of previous projects.
3. Description of the content of the project. Design tolerances are indicated in the project scope statement. The absence of uncertainty in the project tolerances is required, otherwise the threat of risks arising is visible.
4. Risk management plan. Outputs of the risk identification process from the risk management plan are the procedure for appointing responsible persons, the reserve of funds for risk management operations in the budget and in the schedule, and risk categories.
5. Project management plan. Determining the type of risk requires an understanding of the project schedule management plans, the price and quality of goods in the project plan, and of course, an analysis of the outputs of these processes.

Analysis of the documentation involves reviewing project materials developed before this analysis. First of all, the quality of the plans lends itself to analysis, then the consistency of plans, their compliance with the requirements of the Customers, project tolerances, solid plans for content, timing, cost are considered - absolutely everything that will serve as a risk provocateur in the project is taken into account.

Information collection methods:

1. Brainstorming is a meeting of 10-15 people: members of the project team together with independent experts from different fields, in which they develop a detailed list of project risks. Each meeting participant names the threats that, in his opinion, are important for the project. Discussion of the proposals put forward is not allowed. All risks are sorted into categories and specified.
2. Delphi method. The only difference with the brainstorming method is that the participants in the meeting do not know each other. The moderator is present, who asks questions in order to obtain ideas regarding the risks of the project, collects the answers of the experts present. Then the experts' answers are analyzed, categorized and returned back to the experts in order to obtain comments. The consensus list goes through several cycles of the Delphi method. This eliminates the pressure from employees and the fear of expressing their idea in the presence of colleagues.
3. The nominal group method aims to identify risks and rank them in order of importance. In the implementation of this method, groups of 7-10 experts take part, each of whom lists the project risks that he sees, without discussion. After all the possible risks of the project have been identified by all the forces, a joint discussion begins and the list of risks is re-compiled according to their importance.
4. Crawford cards. A meeting of experts is held - 7-10 people. Usually a group of 7-10 experts gathers. The moderator informs that he will ask the group 10 questions, to each of which the participant must give answers in writing, on a separate sheet of paper. The facilitator asks the question of which of the risks is the most important for the project several times. Each participant is forced to consider ten different project risks.
5. Surveys of experts with solid experience in various projects.
6. Root Cause Identification. The need to identify the significant causes of risks and their distribution into groups is pursued.
7. Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis). It is necessary to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the project and its environment. After evaluating the environment, it becomes clear what the external environment threatens and what is favorable for the project. Analysis of checklists. All risks are reflected in the lists, which are based on knowledge and input information accumulated during the implementation of such projects.
8. Analogy method. The accumulated experience and knowledge of risk management from similar projects are used to identify risks.
9. Methods using diagrams. To depict risks, diagrams of cause-and-effect relationships are used, and block diagrams are used to organize the sequence of events in a particular process.

As a result of identification, a Risk Register is formed, which contains:

1. List of identified risks.
2. Displays a list of responses to critical uncertainties.
3. The main reasons for the occurrence of the risk are indicated.
4. The list is broken down into categories.

In the course of identification, the resulting list of risk categories can be expanded, which leads to an increase in the hierarchy in their structure obtained in the course of drawing up a risk management plan.

• How to make decisions about launching investment projects

Practitioner tells

Lilia Kukhareva, Managing Partner, KRES-Consulting, Moscow

A special approach to the organization of work is the Project. It is the project management methods that are most effective when the organization sets itself a complex new task, for the implementation of which there are strict budget and time constraints. Thanks to this, it is possible to make a major transformation in the organization, for example, implement ISO 9001: 2000, a process approach, Lean technologies. Thus, projects for the development of innovations in business appear.

During the work on the project, all participants closely interact in it. Experts from various structures are involved in solving complex problems. The approach to work must be coordinated to meet deadlines, and creative to cope with any given task. The team must become a team. The team is responsible for the final result of the project.

Step 3. Qualitative risk analysis

There is a major problem in risk management related to the size of their list formed at the identification stage. The fact is that it is not possible to manage all the risks, since it is fraught with serious financial and personnel costs. Therefore, it is important to categorize them into priority groups. The primary classification of risks can be based on the time of their occurrence. Close risks are given high priority. They should then be ranked in order of importance in order to proceed with further analysis and planning of actions in case of risk. The quickest and cheapest way to prioritize is through a high-quality risk analysis, which is performed throughout the project and reflects every change that comes with project risks.

A qualitative analysis is performed when the following information is available:

1. Assets of the organizational process - data on risks that have occurred in other projects are considered, as well as accumulated knowledge is taken into account.

2. Description of the scope of the project.

3. A risk management plan containing the following elements:

• assigning people in charge of risk management, including budget and planned operations to manage them;
• risk groups by category;
• the prescribed likelihood of risks and their consequences;
• compiled matrix of probabilities and consequences of risks;
• an indication of the risk tolerance of the project participants.

4. Risk register containing a list of risks to be identified.

5. Tools and methods for conducting a qualitative risk analysis:

• determining the likelihood and impact of risks. all identified risks are subject to assessment of probability and impact by experts, and are also ranked based on the definitions presented in the project management plan. those that have a clearly low degree of probability and impact are not included in the overall rating, but are on the list of risks for which further monitoring is carried out;
• probability and consequences matrix - allows you to determine the degree of risk for each goal separately, for example, for project cost, implementation time or scope. the degree of risk allows you to control the response time to it. for example, threats from a high risk area (indicated in red) require proactive action and an operational strategy to respond. and for the risks of the green zone, preventive operations are not relevant;
• risk classification is an excellent tool for distributing incoming information related to project risks and a convenient system for finding similar cases. Risks are classified in order to be able to divide them into groups and determine the managers who better understand the specifics of a particular risk than others.

A high-quality risk analysis allows you to update their register based on the following information:

• ranking project risks by priority;
• lists of risk groups by category;
• lists of risks from the "red zone" requiring an immediate response;
• lists of risks requiring further study;
• a summary of the results of a fruitful risk analysis.

At the end of this stage, it becomes possible to assess the overall level of project risks in relation to quality: the project is high, moderate, low risk. These evaluation criteria allow you to independently determine, for example, at what number of "red" levels the project will be considered "high risk". It is best to record your subjective assessment separately and then track its dynamics, which will reflect the quality of work in the project.

Step 4. Quantitative analysis

Quantitative risk analysis - analysis of the impact of specific risks on the overall objectives of the project.

A quantitative analysis is performed for those risks that have been identified during the qualitative analysis. An important assessment of such an analysis is the identified likelihood of risks and the amount of benefit or damage. Risk analysis is performed, with a high or medium degree of probability. And the analysis method is determined for each specific project, depending on its timing and funding.

Initial information in the quantitative analysis of steel:

1. Organizational Process Assets.
2. Description of the content of the project.
3. Risk management plan.
4. Risk register.
5. Project management plan.

The most common methods for quantitative project risk analysis are:

• sensitivity (vulnerability) analysis;
• scenario analysis;
• simulation of risks using the Monte Carlo method.

In order to explore each of the above methods, you need to have a general understanding of them. The quantitative analysis is based on the baseline project risk calculation. Qualitative analysis allows you to determine the factors affecting the risks of the project. The objective of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the impact of changes in risk factors on the positive effect of the project.

A sensitivity analysis identifies those risks that have the greatest impact on the project. The method is to track the parameters that influence the project under study. After the parameters are fixed, changing one of them, it becomes possible to influence the situation. Suppose, considering the question of the possible profit of the Project Executor, it is necessary to highlight the parameters that affect it: the lack of specialists among the staff, the need to attract qualified employees, the lack of office space, the need for rent, the absence of a minimum set of technical means to equip workplaces and the need to purchase the necessary technical means. This is followed by a sensitivity analysis for each parameter with the highest risk.

Analysis of scenarios. Based on the development of sensitivity analysis techniques. As a result of its implementation, the entire group of variables is subject to simultaneous and unquestioning change. Three types of scenarios are calculated: pessimistic, optimistic and the most realistic. Based on these calculations, new values \u200b\u200bare built for the NPV and IRR criteria. These indicators are compared with the main values, giving all the necessary recommendations, which contain the "rule": despite the optimistic scenario, it is impossible to further consider the project if the NPV criterion is negative, and vice versa: the pessimistic option with a positive NPV is most acceptable, even taking into account possible worst expectations.

Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is a combination of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. This method can be implemented only with the help of a special computer program that will give the result in the form of a probability distribution of possible project results, for example, the probability of the NPV criterion<0.

Even in the process of risk identification, a risk register is formed, during a qualitative analysis of risks it is updated, during a quantitative analysis, the register is updated again. The risk register is part of the project management plan, therefore, the following elements are updated:

1. Probabilistic analysis of the project, evaluates the possible outputs of the project schedule and its cost. A list of project completion milestones is compiled. As a result of the probabilistic analysis of the project, a distribution of cumulative probabilities appears, taking into account the tolerance of the project participants to risk, so that there is a possibility of correcting the cost and time reserve for force majeure.
2. The likelihood of achieving cost and time goals. Based on the results obtained using quantitative risk analysis, it is possible to assess the likelihood of achieving the project objectives, the background for which is?

An expert assessment of all negative factors that cannot be influenced, and the study of options for minimizing manageable risks, will help to take into account the main threats to the implementation of an investment project.

Olga Senova , economics consultant Alt-Invest LLC

Identifying and analyzing investment project risks, the company tries to take into account the likelihood of negative consequences and the amount of lost profits. In business projects, they can be divided into two large groups:

1. Systematic project risks.These are the risks that cannot be influenced and managed, but are always present and taken into account in the business plan:

Political (political instability, socio-economic changes);

Natural and ecological (natural disasters);

Legal (instability and imperfection of legislation);

Economic risks (government measures in the field of taxation, restrictions or expansion of export-import, currency legislation, etc.).

The amount of systematic risk is determined not by the specifics of an individual project, but by the general situation on the market. In those countries where it is developed, to determine the degree of influence of these threats, it is most often used coefficient b, which is calculated based on statistics for a specific industry or organization. In Russia, such data are insufficient, therefore, as a rule, only expert assessments are used.

1. Unsystematic project risks.The CFO needs to pay special attention to them, since there is an opportunity to manage them, which means, to minimize the impact on the project. They are divided into several large blocks: production (non-fulfillment of planned work, deviation from the schedule of planned production volumes, etc.), financial (non-receipt of the expected income from the project, problems with insufficient liquidity) and market risks (changes in market conditions, loss of market positions , price change). In other words, these are threats that must be taken into account without fail.

Risk of non-receipt of income during project implementation

During the implementation of the project, the risk of not receiving the expected income manifests itself in the form of a negative NPV or an excessively long payback period. This group of threats includes everything related to the forecast of cash flows in the operational phase.

• How to reduce the financial risks of an investment project

Marketing risk can significantly affect the size of your revenue. This is due to the unfulfilled planned sales volume or a decrease in the previously determined selling price. Marketing risk assessment is especially relevant for projects when a new production is created or an existing one is expanded. Its impact is minimized through market analysis, when key influencers are identified and predicted. These include changes in market conditions, increased competition and loss of positions, reduced market capacity or product prices, falling or no demand for goods.

Example
When building a hotel, marketing risks relate, first of all, to two characteristics - price per room and occupancy. Suppose that the investor has determined the first indicator based on its location and class, and then the main factor of uncertainty will be the occupancy rate. When analyzing the risks of a project, it is necessary to study the hotel's ability to generate at least a minimum income for different occupancy. The range of this data is taken from market statistics for similar objects. If the information could not be obtained, the minimum and maximum of guests simultaneously living in the rooms will have to be determined analytically.

The risk of an increase in the production cost of products arises if the production costs exceed the planned indicators, thereby reducing the profit of the project. Therefore, in the business plan, it is necessary to analyze the costs based on data from similar enterprises, to estimate the cost and suppliers of raw materials (reliability, availability, the possibility of alternative purchases).

Example
If among the raw materials consumed during the implementation of the project there are agricultural products or a significant share of the cost price is occupied by petroleum products, then it will be necessary to take into account that their prices depend not only on inflation, but also on specific factors (harvest, conditions on the energy market, etc. .). Often, the increase in raw material costs cannot be completely transferred to the price of products (for example, the production of confectionery products or the operation of a boiler house), in this case it is necessary to study the dependence of the project results on changes in the cost price.

Technological risks can also affect the profitability of the project when the company cannot reach the planned production volumes or control the growth of costs. Key factors include:

• features of the technology used, first of all, its replicability and the possibility of using it under specified conditions, the compliance of raw materials with equipment, etc .;
• dishonesty of the equipment supplier, that is, delays in delivery times, supply of low-quality equipment, etc.;
• lack of available service for servicing the purchased equipment, since the remoteness of service services can lead to production downtime.

Example
In the business plan for the construction of a brick factory, when the building already exists, the sources of raw materials have been studied, and the turnkey production line is supplied by a well-known manufacturer, the technological risks will be minimal. However, if the building has not yet been erected, the place of extraction of raw materials (quarry) has not been developed, the equipment will be purchased and assembled on our own from different suppliers, the project becomes less stable. Then the external investor will most likely require additional guarantees or minimization of risks (studying the situation with raw materials, attracting a general contractor, etc.).

The risk of exceeding the budget during project implementation

It is a common situation when the projected budget at the end of the period has negative cash balances. The risks that determine this can arise both in the investment and in the operational phase for several reasons.

The risk of exceeding the project budget occurs, perhaps, most often - more investments were required than planned. Its impact can be significantly reduced at the planning stage - compare with similar projects or industries, analyze the technological chain, take into account the required amount of working capital. It is also worth considering additional funding for contingencies. Even with careful investment planning, going over budget by 10 percent is considered the norm. If a loan is attracted for a project, it is advisable to agree with the bankers about increasing the limit.

The risk that funding will not be adhered to, resulting in delays or insufficient funding, or an overly tight schedule that does not allow for deviations. The task of the specialists who draw up the business plan is to reserve money in the company's accounts in advance (if the project is financed with their own funds) or to provide for a flexible schedule for receiving money from the bank (if it is about debt financing).

The risk of lack of funds at the stage of reaching the design capacity may delay the work in the operational phase and slow down the achievement of the planned capacity. A similar problem arises when working capital financing has not been fully analyzed in the planning process.

The risk of lack of funds in the operational phase arises from the influence of internal and external factors that lead to a drop in profits and problems with repayment of obligations to creditors or suppliers. If the project is implemented using borrowed funds, it is worth using the debt coverage ratio when building a loan repayment schedule. Its essence is that a possible fluctuation in cash flow takes into account the expected market and economic situation. For example, with a coverage ratio of 1.3, the company's profit could be reduced by 30 percent, while still being able to meet its obligations under the loan agreement.

Example
The construction of a business center can be attributed to a not very risky project if you focus only on fluctuations in the price per square meter of leased area. However, a very different picture emerges when the rate of rent and the combination of income and benefits are taken into account. A business center built on credit funds can easily go bankrupt due to a relatively short-term (compared to the life of its operation) crisis. This is exactly what happened with many objects, the start of which took place in 2008-2009.

The risk of delays in scheduled work in the investment phase, arising from organizational or other reasons, and, as a result, untimely or incomplete start of the operational stage. The negative effect can be minimized with the help of a qualified project management team, selection of reliable equipment suppliers, contractors.

In conclusion, it is worth noting that there are many classifications of risk. The specific option that will be used in the business plan is determined by the specifics of the project. Quite often there is a scientific approach and numerous complex descriptions, but you should not get carried away with this. It is more expedient to indicate precisely those potential problems that are most significant for a particular investment project.

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7.1. Basic concepts

Risk and uncertainty

Decision-making processes in project management occur, as a rule, in the presence of one or another measure of uncertainty, determined by the following factors:

incomplete knowledge of all parameters, circumstances, situation for choosing the optimal solution, as well as the impossibility of adequate and accurate accounting of all even available information and the presence of probabilistic characteristics of the behavior of the environment;

the presence of a factor of chance, that is, the realization of factors that cannot be foreseen and predicted even in a probabilistic implementation;

the presence of subjective factors of counteraction, when decision-making takes place in a situation of a game of partners with opposite or diverging interests.

Thus, the project is being implemented in conditions of uncertainty and risks, and these two categories are interrelated.

Uncertainty in a broad sense is the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of the project, including the associated costs and results.

Risk- the potential, numerically measurable possibility of adverse situations and related consequences in the form of losses, damage, losses, for example - expected profit, income or property, money in connection with uncertainty,that is, with an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, unfavorable, including force majeure, a general drop in prices in the market; the possibility of obtaining an unpredictable result, depending on the adopted economic decision, action.

Let's dwell on the concept risk probability -the likelihood that a decision will result in losses for the entrepreneurial firm, that is, the likelihood of an undesirable outcome. There are two methods for determining the likelihood of undesirable events: objective and subjective. The objective method is based on calculating the frequency with which a particular result was obtained under similar conditions. Subjective probability is an assumption about a certain outcome. This method of determining the likelihood of an unwanted outcome is based on the judgment and personal experience of the entrepreneur. In this case, in accordance with past experience and intuition, the entrepreneur needs to make a digital assumption about the likelihood of events.

Measuring risks- determining the likelihood of a risk event. Assessing the risks that the project team and the project investor are able to take upon themselves during its implementation, they proceed primarily from the specifics and importance of the project, from the availability of the necessary resources for its implementation and the possibilities of financing the likely consequences of risks. The degree of permissible risks, as a rule, is determined taking into account such parameters as the size and reliability of investments in the project, the planned level of profitability, etc.

Quantitatively uncertaintyimplies the possibility of deviation of the result from the expected (or average) value, either upwards or downwards. Accordingly, it is possible to clarify the concept of risk - this is the likelihood of losing part of the resources, loss of income or the appearance of additional costs and (or) the opposite - the possibility of obtaining significant benefits (income) as a result of a certain purposeful activity. Therefore, these two categories affecting the implementation of an investment project should be analyzed and evaluated jointly.

Thus, risk is an event that can occur under conditions of uncertainty with some probability, while three economic results are possible (assessed in economic, most often financial indicators):

negative, i.e. damage, loss, loss;

positive, i.e. benefit, profit, gain;

zero (no harm, no benefit).

The nature of uncertainty, risks and losses in the implementation of projects is associated primarily with the possibility of incurring financial losses due to the predicted, probabilistic nature of future cash flows and the implementation of probabilistic aspects of the project and its many participants, resources, external and internal circumstances.

Management of risks

Project management involves more than just acknowledging the existence of uncertainties and risks and analyzing risks and damages. Project risks can and should be managed. Management of risks - a set of methods for analyzing and neutralizing risk factors combined into a planning, monitoring and corrective action system.

Risk management is a project management subsystem, the structure of the subsystem is presented below.

Management of risks:

Identification and identification of perceived risks;

Analysis and assessment of risks;

Choice of risk management methods;

Application of selected methods and decision making under risk conditions;

Response to the occurrence of a risk event;

Development and implementation of risk mitigation measures;

Monitoring, analyzing and evaluating actions to reduce risks and developing solutions.

Risk management methods

Development and implementation of a risk management strategy

Risk compensation methods, including forecasting the external environment of the project, marketing projects and project products, monitoring the socio-economic and legal environment and creating a system of project reserves;

Methods of risk distribution, including distribution of risks over time, distribution of risks between participants, etc.;

Risk localization methods used for high-risk projects in a multi-project system, implying the creation of separate special units for the implementation of particularly risky projects;

Methods of avoiding risks, including rejection of risky projects and unreliable partners, insurance of risks, search for guarantors.

Identification and identification of perceived risks- systematic identification and classification of events that can adversely affect the project, i.e., in fact, the classification of risks.

Risk classification- a qualitative description of risks based on various criteria.

Risk analysis -procedures for identifying risk factors and assessing their significance, in fact, an analysis of the likelihood that certain undesirable events will occur and negatively affect the achievement of project objectives. Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods to mitigate risks or reduce associated adverse effects. At the first stage, the relevant factors are identified and their significance is assessed.

Risk assessmentis a quantitative or qualitative determination of the magnitude (degree) of risks. A distinction should be made between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment.

Qualitative assessmentcan be relatively simple, its main task is to determine possible types of risks, as well as factors affecting the level of risks when performing a certain type of activity.

Quantificationrisk is determined through:

a) the probability that the result obtained will be less than the required value (planned, planned, predicted);

b) the product of the expected damage by the probability that this damage will occur.

Risk assessment methodsinclude the following:

Quantitative risk assessment using methods of mathematical statistics.

Methods for expert risk assessment.

Risk simulation methods.

Combined methods, which are the combination of several separate methods or their separate elements.

Risk analysis sequence:

Selection of an experienced team of experts;

Preparing a special questionnaire and meeting with experts;

Choosing a risk analysis technique;

Identification of risk factors and their significance;

Creation of a model of the mechanism of risk action;

Establishing the relationship between individual risks and the cumulative effect of their impact;

Consideration of the results of the risk analysis - usually in the form of a specially prepared report (report).

Risk mitigation techniquesinclude:

Distribution of risks between project participants;

Risk insurance;

Reservation.

Distribution (diversion, transfer, transfer) of risks -actions to transfer, in whole or in part, risks to another party, usually through a contract of some kind.

Risk insurancerepresents a relationship to protect the property interests of individuals and legal entities in the event of certain events (insurance cases) at the expense of funds formed from the insurance premiums paid by them (insurance premiums).

Reservation- a method of reserving funds to cover damage, unforeseen expenses in the event of risky events.

7.2. Analysis of project risks

The essence of project risk analysis

The analysis of project risks begins with their classification and identification, that is, with their qualitative description and definition - what types of risks are inherent in a specific project in a given environment under the existing economic, political, legal conditions.

Analysis of project riskssubdivided into quality(a description of all anticipated project risks, as well as a cost estimate of their consequences and mitigation measures) and quantitative(direct calculations of changes in project efficiency due to risks).

The analysis of project risks is based on risk assessments, which consist in determining the magnitude (degree) of risks. Methods for determining the criterion for quantitative risk assessment include:

statistical estimation methods based on the methods of mathematical statistics, i.e. variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation. To apply these methods, a sufficiently large amount of initial data and observations is required;

methods of expert assessments based on the use of expert knowledge in the process of project analysis and taking into account the influence of qualitative factors;

analogy methods based on the analysis of similar projects and the conditions for their implementation to calculate the probability of losses. These methods are used when there is a representative basis for analysis and other methods are unacceptable or less reliable, these methods are widely practiced in the West, since in the practice of project management, project evaluations are practiced after their completion and significant material accumulates for subsequent use;

combined methods include the use of several methods at once.

Methods for constructing complex probability distributions (decision trees), analytical methods (sensitivity analysis, break-even point analysis, etc.), and scenario analysis are also used.

Risk analysis is the most important stage in the analysis of an investment project. The analysis solves the problem of reconciling two practically opposite aspirations - whether to maximize and minimize project risks.

The result of the risk analysis should be a special section of the project business plan, including a description of the risks, the mechanism of their interaction and the cumulative effect, measures to protect against risks, the interests of all parties in overcoming the risk of risks; assessment of the risk analysis procedures performed by experts, as well as the initial data used by them; a description of the structure of risk distribution between the project participants under the contract with an indication of the stipulated compensation for losses, professional insurance payments, debt obligations, etc .; recommendations on those aspects of risks that require special measures or conditions in the insurance policy.

Qualitative risk analysis

One of the areas of risk analysis for an investment project is a qualitative analysis or identification of risks.

A qualitative analysis of project risks is carried out at the stage of developing a business plan, and a mandatory comprehensive examination of an investment project allows us to prepare extensive information for analyzing its risks.

The first step in identifying risks is to specify the classification of risks in relation to the project being developed.

Risk theory distinguishes between concepts factor a(the reasons), types of risksand type of loss(damage) from the occurrence of risk events.

Under factors(reasons) risksunderstand such unplanned events that can potentially occur and have a deviating effect on the intended progress of the project, or some conditions that cause uncertainty in the outcome of the situation. At the same time, some of these events could be foreseen, while others were not possible to predict.

Risk type -classification of risk events for the same type of reasons for their occurrence.

Type of loss, damage- classification of the results of the implementation of risk events.

Thus, it is possible to clarify the relationship between the main characteristics of risks:

Risk factors

Uncertainty in the implementation of factors and their unpredictability

Risk (risk event)

Loss (Damage)

Risk analysis is carried out in terms of:

the origins, causes of this type of risk;

probable negative consequences caused by the possible realization of this risk;

specific predictable measures to minimize the considered risk.

The main results of a qualitative risk analysis are:

identification of specific project risks and the causes that give rise to them;

analysis and cost equivalent of hypothetical consequences of the possible realization of the noted risks;

proposal of measures to minimize damage and, finally, their cost estimate.

In addition, at this stage, the boundary values \u200b\u200b(minimum and maximum) of the possible change in all factors (variables) of the project that are checked for risks are determined.

Quantitative risk analysis

The mathematical apparatus of risk analysis is based on the methods of probability theory, which is due to the probabilistic nature of uncertainty and risks. Quantitative risk analysis tasksare divided into three types:

straight lines, in which the assessment of the level of risks is based on a priori known probabilistic information;

inverse, when an acceptable level of risks is set and the values \u200b\u200b(range of values) of the initial parameters are determined, taking into account the established restrictions on one or several variable initial parameters;

the tasks of studying the sensitivity, stability of the effective, criterion indicators in relation to the variation of the initial parameters (distribution of probabilities, areas of change of certain values, etc.). This is necessary due to the inevitable inaccuracy of the initial information and reflects the degree of reliability of the results obtained in the analysis of project risks.

A quantitative analysis of project risks is carried out on the basis of mathematical models of decision-making and project behavior, the main of which are:

stochastic (probabilistic) models;

linguistic (descriptive) models;

non-stochastic (game, behavioral) models.

Table 7.1 describes the characteristics of the most used methods of risk analysis.

Table 7.1

7.3. Risk mitigation techniques

All methods to minimize project risks can be divided into three groups:

1. Diversification,or risk sharing(distribution of enterprise efforts between activities, the results of which are not directly related to each other), which allows you to distribute risks between project participants. The distribution of project risks between its participants is an effective way to reduce it. Reliability theory shows that with an increase in the number of parallel links in the system, the probability of failure in it decreases in proportion to the number of such links. Therefore, the distribution of risks between the participants increases the reliability of achieving the result. At the same time, it is most logical to make responsible for a specific type of risk that of its participants who has the ability to more accurately and better calculate and control this risk. Risk allocation is formalized during the development of the project financial plan and contract documents.

Risk allocation is actually implemented during the preparation of the project plan and contract documents. It should be borne in mind that an increase in risks for one of the participants must be accompanied by an adequate change in the distribution of project revenues. Therefore, when negotiating, it is necessary:

determine the capabilities of the project participants to prevent the consequences of the occurrence of risk events;

determine the degree of risks that each project participant assumes;

agree on an acceptable risk reward;

monitor compliance with the parity in the ratio of risks and incomes between all project participants.

2. Funds reservationcontingency management is a risk management strategy that balances the potential risks affecting the cost of a project and the costs required to overcome project disruptions.

The amount of the reserve must be equal to or exceed the amount of fluctuation of the parameters of the system in time. In this case, the cost of reserves should always be lower than the costs (losses) associated with failover recovery. Foreign experience allows an increase in the cost of the project from 7 to 12% due to the reservation of funds for force majeure. Reserving funds provides for establishing a balance between potential risks that change the cost of a project and the amount of costs associated with overcoming violations during its implementation.

Table 7.2. Standards for contingency funds

Minimizing risks always increases project costs, but it also increases project profits.

Part of the reserve should always be at the disposal of the project manager (the rest of the reserve is managed, in accordance with the contract, by other project participants).

A prerequisite for the success of the project is the excess of the estimated proceeds from the implementation of the project over the outflows of funds at each step of the calculation. With the aim of reduce risks in terms of financingit is necessary to create a sufficient margin of safety, taking into account the following types of risks:

the risk of unfinished construction (additional costs and the lack of income planned for this period);

the risk of a temporary decrease in the volume of sales of the project's products;

tax risk (inability to use tax incentives and benefits, changes in tax legislation);

the risk of late payment of debts by customers.

When calculating risks, it is necessary that the balance of accumulated real money in the financial plan of the project at each step of the calculation should be at least 8% of the costs planned at this step. In addition, it is necessary to provide for additional sources of financing for the project and the creation of reserve funds with the deduction of a certain percentage of the proceeds from the sale of products.

3. Risk insurance.If the project participants are not able to ensure the implementation of the project upon the occurrence of a particular risk event on their own, it is necessary to carry out risk insurance. Risk insurance is, in essence, the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company.

Foreign insurance practice uses full insurance of investment projects. The conditions of Russian reality allow for the time being only partially to insure the project risks: buildings, equipment, personnel, some extreme situations, etc .;

Choosing a rational insurance scheme is a rather difficult task. Let's consider the main provisions of this method of risk reduction.

Rosstrakhnadzor Order No. 02-02 / 08 dated 19.05.94 approved the Classification by type of insurance activity, which provides for the insurance of financial risks by an agreement stipulating the obligations of the insurer for insurance payments in the amount of full or partial compensation for the loss of income (additional costs) of a person caused by the following events :

stopping production or reducing production as a result of specified events;

loss of work (for individuals);

bankruptcy;

unforeseen expenses;

non-fulfillment (improper fulfillment) of contractual obligations by the counterparty of the insured person who is the creditor under the transaction;

legal expenses incurred by the insured person;

other events.

The Russian legislation introduces the concept of entrepreneurial risk. Insurance of entrepreneurial risk involves the conclusion of a property insurance contract, according to which one party (the insurer) undertakes to compensate the other party (the policyholder) or another person in favor of whom the contract was concluded for the fee (insurance premium) stipulated in the contract. (to the beneficiary), losses caused as a result of this event in the insured property or losses in connection with other property interests of the policyholder (to pay insurance compensation) within the amount (insured amount) specified in the contract.

Under a property insurance contract, the following property interests, in particular, may be insured:

the risk of loss (destruction), shortage or damage to certain property;

the risk of liability for obligations arising from harm to the life, health or property of other persons, and in cases provided by law, also liability under contracts - the risk of civil liability;

the risk of losses from entrepreneurial activity due to violation of their obligations by the contractors of the entrepreneur or changes in the conditions of this activity due to circumstances beyond the entrepreneur's control, including the risk of not receiving expected income - entrepreneurial risk.

When concluding a business risk insurance contract, the insurer has the right to analyze the risks and, if necessary, appoint an expert examination.

When insuring entrepreneurial risk, unless otherwise provided by the insurance contract, the sum insured must not exceed the losses from entrepreneurial activity that the policyholder would be expected to incur in the event of an insured event.

For real investments, there is insurance and not only against financial losses. A construction contract may provide for the obligation of a party that bears the risk of accidental loss or accidental damage to the construction object, material, equipment and other property used during construction, or liability for causing damage to other persons during construction, to insure the relevant risks.

Business risk insurance premiums can be included in the cost of production. So, the cost of products (works, services) includes: payments (insurance premiums) for voluntary insurance of means of transport (water, air, land), property, civil liability of organizations - sources of increased danger, civil liability of carriers, professional liability, voluntary insurance against accidents and illnesses, as well as health insurance.

It is allowed to create insurance reserves or insurance funds for all enterprises and organizations to finance expenses caused by entrepreneurial and other risks, as well as those related to insurance of property, life of employees and civil liability for causing harm to the property interests of third parties. The limit of deductions for these purposes has also been established: it cannot exceed one percent of the volume of products (works, services) sold.

Effectiveness of risk mitigation techniquesis determined using the following algorithm:

the risk that is of greatest importance to the project is considered;

cost overruns are determined taking into account the likelihood of an adverse event;

a list of possible measures is determined to reduce the likelihood and danger of a risk event;

additional costs for the implementation of the proposed activities are determined;

the required costs for the implementation of the proposed measures are compared with a possible cost overrun due to the onset of a risk event;

a decision is made to implement or refuse anti-risk measures;

the process of comparing the probability and consequences of risk events with the costs of measures to reduce them is repeated for the next most important risk.

7.4. Organization of work on risk management

A comprehensive study of various risks at the stage of project development using the system of approaches and methods presented in the previous sections is undertaken not only for the purpose of analyzing project risks at the beginning of the project life cycle. The conclusions made on the basis of such a study provide significant assistance to the project manager at the stage of its implementation, since the analysis of project risks should not be limited only to the statement of the fact of their presence and the calculation and recommendation conclusion at the stage of developing the project business plan. An obligatory continuation and development of project risk analysis is their management at the stage of project implementation and operation.

Risk management is a specific area of \u200b\u200bmanagement that requires knowledge in the field of theory of the firm, insurance, analysis of the economic activities of an enterprise, mathematical methods for optimizing economic problems, etc.

A risk management system is a special type of activity aimed at mitigating the impact of risks on the final results of a project. Risk management is a new phenomenon for the Russian economy, which appeared during the transition of the economy to a market economic system.

Risk management is carried out at all phases of the project life cycle through monitoring, control and necessary corrective actions.

The risk management process involves taking certain steps, including:

identification of perceived risks;

analysis and assessment of project risks;

choice of risk management methods;

application of the selected methods;

assessment of the results of risk management.

The analysis of the risks of an investment project involves an approach to risk not as a static, unchanging one, but as a controllable parameter, the level of which can and should be influenced. Hence, it follows that it is necessary to influence the identified risks in order to minimize or compensate them. The so-called concept of acceptable risk is aimed at exploring these possibilities and the associated methodology.

The concept of acceptable risk is based on the assertion that it is impossible to completely eliminate potential causes that can lead to undesirable development of events and, as a result, to deviate from the chosen goal. However, the process of achieving the chosen goal can occur on the basis of making decisions that provide some compromise level of risk, called acceptable. This level corresponds to a certain balance between the expected benefit and the threat of loss and is based on serious analytical work, including special calculations.

As applied to investment design, the concept of acceptable risk is implemented through the integration of a set of procedures - project risk assessment and project risk management.

Characterizing the whole arsenal of project risk management methods, it is necessary to emphasize their specific practical orientation, which allows not only to select and rank risk factors, but also to model the project implementation process, to assess with a certain probability the consequences of adverse situations, to choose methods to minimize their impact, or to propose risk-compensating measures, to follow the dynamics of the behavior of the actual parameters of the project during its implementation and, finally, to correct their change in the desired direction. The goal of project risk management not only contributes to a deeper analysis of projects, but also improves the efficiency of investment decisions. The role of the main executor of all procedures related to risk management falls on the shoulders of the project manager (administrator) or the team with his participation.

Project risk management methods can and should become a means of effective implementation of the projects themselves at all levels of government - federal, regional and local.