Investment efficiency. Economic efficiency of an investment project (2) - Law Real value of money, $

Investment projects can be assessed according to many criteria - in terms of their social significance, the scale of their impact on the environment, the degree of involvement of labor resources, etc. However, the central place in these assessments belongs to efficiency investment project.

In general, the effectiveness of an investment project is understood as compliance with the results obtained from the project - both economic (in particular profit) and non-economic (relief of social tension in the region)— and project costs. According to the “Methodological recommendations...”, efficiency investment project is a category reflecting compliance project, generating this investment project, goals and interests project participants, by which they mean; subjects of investment activity (discussed above) and society as a whole.

1) the effectiveness of the project as a whole;

2) effectiveness of participation in the project.

Overall project effectiveness. It is assessed to determine potential attractiveness project, the feasibility of its adoption for possible participants. She shows objective acceptability investment project from the point of view of economic efficiency, regardless of the financial capabilities of its participants. When assessing the effectiveness of a project as a whole, one should take into account its social significance, taking into account the scale of the investment project. The economic, social and environmental consequences of the implementation of global, national economic or large-scale projects affect the entire society.

That is why the clarity of the project as a whole is usually divided into two types:

public (socio-economic) effectiveness of the project, the assessment of which is necessary for socially significant projects;
commercial project effectiveness, which is assessed for almost all ongoing projects.
social efficiency takes into account the socio-economic consequences of the implementation of the investment project for society as a whole, including how direct costs of the project and results from the project, and "external effects" - social, environmental and other effects.

Commercial efficiency of an investment project reflects the economic consequences of its implementation for the project participant, on the assumption that he independently makes all the necessary costs for the project and uses all its results. In other words, when assessing commercial effectiveness, one should abstract from the capabilities of project participants to finance the costs of an investment project, conditionally assuming that the necessary funds are available.

2) Efficiency of participation in the project. It allows you to assess the feasibility of an investment project, taking into account the financial capabilities and interest of all its participants in it.

This efficiency can be of several types:

effectiveness of participation enterprises in the project (its effectiveness for enterprises participating in the investment project);
efficiency investing in shares enterprises (efficiency for JSC shareholders - participants in the investment project);
efficiency participation in the project of higher level structures in relation to enterprises participating in the investment project (national economic, regional, industry, etc. efficiency);
budgetary efficiency of the investment project (effectiveness of state participation in the project in terms of expenses and revenues of budgets of all levels).

General scheme for assessing the effectiveness of an investment project. First of all, it is determined public importance project, and then the effectiveness of the investment project is assessed in two stages.

At the first stage project performance indicators are calculated generally.

Wherein:

1) for local projects (which do not relate to socially significant projects), only their commercial viability— if it turns out to be negative, then the project is not recommended for implementation; if the commercial effectiveness of the local project is positive, then proceed to the second stage of assessment;

2) for socially significant projects, their social efficiency:

if such effectiveness is unsatisfactory, then the project is not recommended for implementation and cannot qualify for government support.
if the social effectiveness of a socially significant project turns out to be acceptable, then they move on to evaluating it commercial efficiency

When analyzing the commercial effectiveness of socially significant projects, various options are possible:

commercial efficiency is positive - in this case they move on to the second stage of assessment;
commercial efficiency is negative. If the commercial efficiency of a socially significant project is insufficient, it is necessary to consider various options for supporting it (reducing the tax burden, providing preferential treatment for the sale of products, etc.), which would increase the commercial efficiency of the investment project to an acceptable level. If, as a result of such support, it is possible to increase commercial efficiency to an acceptable level, then proceed to the second stage of assessment. If, even with the support of the project, it is not possible to achieve a positive level of commercial efficiency, then the project is not recommended for implementation.

If the conditions and sources of financing for socially significant projects are already known, then their commercial effectiveness need not be assessed. Second stage of assessment carried out after the development of a financing scheme. At this stage, the composition of participants is clarified, financial feasibility and effectiveness of participation in the project of each of them. If for any project participant the effectiveness of his participation in the investment project turns out to be negative, it means that he does not have the financial capacity to ensure the implementation of the project. In this case, he must refuse to participate in the project. If the assessment of the effectiveness of participation in the project of a specific economic entity is positive, this project is accepted.

There are many methods for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects. Conventionally, these methods can be divided into two groups:

Simple, or static, methods;
Methods based on discounted cash flows.

Simple, or static, the methods do not take into account the time value of money and are based on the assumption that income and expenses resulting from the implementation of an investment project are of equal importance over different periods of time (calculation steps) during which the effectiveness of the project is assessed. The most well-known simple methods are payback period and rate of return, the specifics of their use are discussed in the next chapter.

Discounted valuation methods The effectiveness of an investment project is characterized by the fact that they take into account the time value of money. When using these methods, indicators widely known in world practice are used: net present value (NPV); discounted payback period ( RVR); internal rate of return (IRR); profitability index ( P i).

These methods are summarized in Scheme 5.

Let us first dwell on discounted methods for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects. These methods are based on the concept present value. Therefore, it is advisable to consider the economic content of this concept.

Scheme 5.

Methods for assessing the effectiveness of an investment project

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Course work

Economic efficiency of the investment project

Selishcheva Natalya Andreevna

Vladivostok 2012

Introduction

2.5 Calculation of the efficiency of an investment project for the construction of a gas processing complex

Conclusion

Bibliography

Applications

investment project gas processing complex

Introduction

Investment activity is extremely important because it creates the basis for the stable development of the economy as a whole, its individual sectors, and economic entities.

All enterprises are to one degree or another connected with investment activities. As a result of its functioning, any company is faced with the need to invest funds in its development. In other words, for a company to develop effectively, it needs to have a clear policy for its investment activities. In any effectively operating company, issues of managing the investment process occupy one of the most important places.

In a market economy, there are quite a lot of investment opportunities. At the same time, any enterprise, as a rule, has limited free financial resources available for investment. Therefore, it is necessary to choose the optimal investment project.

The implementation of investment goals involves the formation of investment projects that provide investors and other project participants with the necessary information to make an investment decision.

The concept of an investment project is interpreted in two ways:

as an activity (event) that involves the implementation of a set of actions that ensure the achievement of certain goals;

as a system that includes a set of organizational, legal, settlement and financial documents necessary for carrying out any actions or describing these actions.

This work talks about the assessment of capital investments in real investment projects, therefore the concept of “investment project” is used in the second meaning.

1. Economic efficiency of the investment project

1.1 The concept of an investment project and project cycle

In the Russian Federation, investments (in accordance with the Federal Law on investment activities in the Russian Federation, carried out in the form of capital investments) are usually understood as funds, securities, other property, including property rights, other rights having a monetary value, invested in objects of entrepreneurial and (or) other activity in order to make a profit and (or) achieve another beneficial effect.

Investment activity - making investments and carrying out practical actions in order to make a profit and (or) achieve another useful effect. Capital investments - investments in fixed assets (fixed assets), including costs for new construction, expansion, reconstruction and technical re-equipment of existing enterprises, purchase of machinery, equipment, tools, inventory, design and survey work and other costs.

Investment project - justification of the economic feasibility, volume and timing of capital investments, including the necessary design and estimate documentation developed in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation and duly approved standards (norms and rules), as well as a description of practical actions for making investments (business plan).

The payback period of an investment project is the period from the date of commencement of financing of the investment project until the day when the difference between the accumulated amount of net profit with depreciation charges and the volume of investment costs becomes positive; (paragraph introduced by Federal Law dated January 2, 2000 N 22-FZ).

In international practice, an enterprise development plan is presented in the form of a business plan, which is essentially a structured description of an enterprise development project. If the project is related to attracting investments, it is called an “investment project.” Typically, any new project of an enterprise is, to one degree or another, associated with attracting new investments. In the most general understanding, a project is a specially designed proposal to change the activities of an enterprise, pursuing a specific goal.

Projects are usually divided into tactical and strategic. The latter usually include projects that involve a change in the form of ownership (the creation of a rental enterprise, a joint stock company, a private enterprise, a joint venture, etc.) or a fundamental change in the nature of production (the release of new products, the transition to fully automated production, etc.). ). Tactical projects are usually associated with changing production volumes, improving product quality, and modernizing equipment.

The general procedure for streamlining the investment activities of an enterprise in relation to a specific project is formulated in the form of a so-called project cycle, which has the following stages:

Project formulation (sometimes the term "identification" is used). At this stage, the top management of the enterprise analyzes the current state of the enterprise and determines the highest priority directions for its further development. The result of this analysis is formalized in the form of a certain business idea, which is aimed at solving the most important problems for the enterprise. Already at this stage it is necessary to have a more or less convincing argument regarding the feasibility of the idea. Several ideas for further development of the enterprise may emerge. If they all seem equally useful and feasible, then several investment projects are developed in parallel so that a decision on the most acceptable one can be made at the final stage of development.

Development (preparation) of the project. After the business idea of the project has passed the first test, it is necessary to develop it until the moment when a firm decision can be made - positive or negative. At this stage, gradual clarification and improvement of the project plan is required in all its directions - commercial, technical, financial, economic, investment, etc.; at this stage, initial information is searched and collected to solve individual project problems. It is necessary to recognize that the success of the project depends on the degree of reliability of the initial information and the ability to correctly interpret the data that appears in the process of project analysis.

Project examination. Before starting a project, its qualified examination is a highly desirable stage in the project life cycle. If the project is financed mainly by a strategic investor (credit or direct), then the investor himself conducts the examination, for example, with the help of some reputable consulting firm, preferring to spend a certain amount at this stage rather than lose most of his money in the process of project implementation . If an enterprise plans to implement an investment project primarily at its own expense, then an examination of the project is highly desirable to verify the correctness of the main provisions of the project.

Implementation of the project. The stage covers the actual development of a business idea until the moment when the project is fully put into operation. This includes monitoring and analysis of all activities as they are carried out and control by regulatory authorities within the country and/or foreign or domestic investor. This stage also includes the main part of the project implementation, the task of which is ultimately to verify the adequacy of the cash flows generated by the project to cover the initial investment and provide the return on investment desired by investors.

Evaluation of results. It is carried out both upon completion of the project as a whole and during its implementation. The main goal of this type of activity is to obtain real feedback between the ideas included in the project and the degree of their actual implementation. The results of such a comparison create invaluable experience for project developers, allowing them to be used in the development and implementation of other projects.

The criterion for the effectiveness of an investment project for a credit or institutional investor will be the return on the funds invested. Moreover, since we are talking about the future with its uncertainty, this task has two aspects: the first is the absolute value of the project’s profitability and the second is the probability of achieving it.

In this regard, it is necessary to take into account the difference in the interests of the creditor bank and the institutional investor when investing funds. The bank, as a rule, lends to the enterprise at an interest rate that fluctuates around the equilibrium market value. Accordingly, the bank is not interested in the excess of income from the implementation of the project over the amount ensuring the repayment of interest and principal on the loan. On the other hand, the bank does not participate in the authorized capital of the enterprise and, therefore, cannot directly influence the decisions taken to implement the project. These two factors determine the bank's priorities when issuing funds; the main focus is on the reliability of the project, that is, guarantees of repayment of principal and interest. On the contrary, an institutional investor, who has a share of the profits from the project and participates in decision-making on its implementation, is more interested in the effectiveness of the project.

The effectiveness of the project is analyzed using simple (statistical) methods and discounting methods. Simple (statistical) methods are based on the assumption of equal importance of project income and expenses received in different periods of time. The main statistical methods are:

calculation of a simple rate of return in the form of the ratio of net profit on the project for the analyzed period to total capital costs (investments);

calculation of the payback period as the number of years for which the net profit received from the project plus depreciation charges (the so-called “net revenue”) will cover the capital costs (investments).

Statistical methods can serve as a tool for rough assessment of a project, but their imperfection lies in the assumption of equal importance of income and expenses related to different periods of time. Meanwhile, the investor is faced with the problem of so-called “opportunity costs”, which consists in the fact that during the period between two moments of receipt of funds, he can make a risk-free and liquid investment of earlier income (for example, in government treasury bonds) and thereby receive a guaranteed income from earlier receipts to the time of receipt of later receipts. This means that income and expenses relating to different periods of time do not have the same value for the investor, or, expressed differently, capital has a time value (interest). Therefore, to conduct a rigorous analysis of an investment project, it is necessary to use discounting methods, that is, bringing project income (expenses) relating to different periods of time to one denominator through the use of a special coefficient - discount, reflecting the time value of capital. As a discount, you can use interest on liquid, risk-free investments.

Another discount option is the so-called target rate of return, equal to the minimum acceptable return on investment for a potential investor. The target rate of return can be determined as a result of direct negotiations with the investor or studying the specifics of the industry in which the investor is engaged; for example, for a bank, the target rate of return may be the interest on deposits, or the discount rate of interest, or the interest on an interbank loan, but, most likely, the average interest rate on loans issued (in the latter case, the excess of the investment efficiency of the target rate of return will characterize the “ceiling of reliability » loan repayment to the bank).

The main discounting methods are:

net present value method;

integral current value method;

internal rate of return method.

Net present value method

“Net present value” (the English abbreviation NPV for net present value) refers to the difference between discounted income and expenses over a certain period of time. Thus, the net present value (NPV) indicator is calculated for a certain period, and the maximum period for calculating this indicator is the full investment cycle (the period of full depreciation of the investments made). Since project revenues generally begin to arrive at a later date than the capital expenditures incurred, the net present value calculated over a longer period usually has a greater positive value. We present the calculations using formula (1).

where NPV is the net present value for a period of time equal to n years;

Di - net financial flows (the difference in cash receipts and expenditures) in the i -th year;

Ri is the discount value for i years from the start of the project (compound interest rate on risk-free investments, or target rate of return).

As noted above, net present value is always calculated over a specific period. The maximum calculation period is the useful life of the investment until full depreciation of the fixed assets created within the project (the so-called depreciation, or investment, cycle). It can be useful for an investor to calculate several net present value indicators for different time periods, since for the short-, medium- and long-term period he may have different investment strategies based, in particular, on the less uncertainty of the short-term period. It is important that the real usefulness of investments for an investor on a certain date consists not only of the net financial flows accumulated since the beginning of the project, but also of the liquid value of the capital investments made. The amount of money that can actually be obtained from the sale of an unfinished construction project or fixed assets that have already been put into operation. The liquid value of investments can be either greater or less than the capital costs incurred and is assessed by experts. The real utility of an investment for an investor at a certain date from the start of the project can be expressed through the integral present value (ITV) indicator. Let's reflect this in formula (2):

where (ITS)i is the integral current value i years after the start of the project;

(NPV)i - net present value i years after the start of the project;

(LP)i is the liquid value of investments i years after the start of the project;

Ri is the discount value i years after the start of the project.

It should be borne in mind that the liquid value of investments is discounted, that is, reduced to the time of the start of the project. Theoretically, the indicators of integral and net present value should coincide at the end of the depreciation cycle, when the liquid value of the investment becomes equal to 0.

Internal rate of return method

From a formal point of view, the internal rate of return method (IRR, the English abbreviation IRR for internal rate of return) is the inverse of the net present value method. Its essence is that the method of successive approximation is used to determine the discount value at which the net present value for a given period is equal to 0.

At first glance, the net present value and internal rate of return methods may seem completely interchangeable, providing the same result. However, this is not quite true. The difference between the two methods is as follows.

The internal rate of return, unlike net present value, is not directly linked to the criterion of maximizing the well-being of the company. If you need to answer the question of whether or not to invest in a given project, based on the minimum possible target rate of return (the minimum acceptable discount amount at which the net present value for the period will be greater than 0 and/or which is the minimum acceptable value for the internal rate of return ), then you can use the indicator (NPV or IRR). When it comes to an alternative solution, i.e. about the choice between two or more projects, then these two indicators may come into conflict.

Thus, a higher net present value for project A is achieved due to the greater value of the investor’s resources “weighted” by the immobilization period (extensive way of making a profit), and the better indicator of the internal rate of return for project B characterizes a higher return per unit of immobilized funds (intensive way to make a profit).

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Figure 1 Diagram of the dependence of the value of the current value on the value of the discount (the contradiction between the net present value and the internal rate of return)

In other words, the net present value indicator characterizes the amount of profit on invested capital, and the internal rate of return indicator characterizes the amount of profit on invested capital. Consequently, the internal rate of return and net present value, with all their interdependence, characterize different aspects of the project’s attractiveness for a potential investor and therefore must simultaneously appear in the financial and economic justification and business plan of the investment project.

Thus, the use of the three listed methods allows us to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of investments, in which each indicator used characterizes a separate aspect of the financial results of the project for the investor:

The net worth method allows you to estimate the amount of profit on invested capital;

the integral present value method provides a quantitative expression of the total utility of investments;

The internal rate of return method characterizes the rate of return on invested capital.

The internal unity of these three methods allows us to consider the category of investment efficiency in several planes, depending on the priorities of the investor and possible scenarios for the development of the project.

So, in the context of the effectiveness of the project, the investor is interested in the following main questions:

What is the total amount of money he will receive for the entire useful life of his investments, including in the context of different project implementation periods (net present value indicator);

what total amount of money will he receive from the investment if for some reason the project is terminated at an intermediate stage and the unfinished construction project will have to be sold (integral current value indicator);

what is the comparative return per unit of investment resources compared to existing alternative investments (internal rate of return indicator);

does the project remain profitable when the market interest rate on attracted investment resources increases; what is the upper limit of this increase (internal rate of return).

Analysis of the effectiveness of the project allows us to estimate the possible interval of their change under various conditions of project implementation. Probabilistic characteristics are used for:

making investment decisions,

ranking projects,

justification of rational sizes and forms of reservation and insurance.

When applying a particular risk analysis method, it should be borne in mind that the apparent high accuracy of the results can be deceptive and mislead analysts and decision makers.

1.2 Economic efficiency of the project and its indicators

Economic efficiency is one of the important categories that characterizes the performance of an enterprise and the possibility of implementing a project aimed at improving its performance. In its most general form, economic efficiency can be defined as the ratio of the results obtained to the costs incurred or resources consumed. Let us demonstrate this with formula (3):

Economic efficiency is a relative value. The absolute value expressing any useful result is the economic effect. From the definition of economic efficiency, the dual nature of this category is clear: it is determined in relation to costs or resources, which creates certain difficulties in its practical calculations. The resources of the enterprise are: fixed assets, working capital, labor, natural and financial resources. Costs characterize the measure of consumption of a particular type of resource at a certain point in time. But different types of resources are consumed unevenly (they have different turnover rates in the production process), which makes it difficult to convert them into costs. For example, fixed assets are used in an enterprise for a long period of time, do not change their physical form and transfer their value to the cost of production gradually, in parts as they wear out. Working capital, on the contrary, is consumed in each production cycle and immediately transfers its value to the cost of finished products. Since it is difficult to convert resources into costs and to accurately determine the quantity and speed of turnover for each type of resource, economic efficiency is assessed using indicators based on both cost and resource approaches.

Currently, in accordance with the “Methodological recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects and their selection for financing”, it is recommended to evaluate effectiveness according to the following indicators:

net present value (NPV);

profitability index (ID);

internal rate of return (IRR);

payback period.

All these indicators are based on taking into account the magnitude of the time factor. The time factor in calculations of economic efficiency is determined to take into account the multi-temporal nature of the activities being implemented. The need to take into account the time factor is due to the fact that the implementation of large projects requires a long period of time, during which inflation operates, invested funds do not produce returns, the initial design conditions, prices for raw materials and finished products change.

In order to compare costs at different times, their values are reduced to a single point in time, i.e. start time of the project, by calculating the discount factor (reduction) according to formula (4):

where t is the number of the calculation step: month, quarter, year.

The t value can vary within (formula (5):

where T is the calculation horizon or the last period of time for which the project’s effectiveness is assessed;

E is the discount rate that is constant over time for each calculation.

In a market economy, the discount rate is determined based on the bank interest rate on long-term deposits and the amount of investment risk associated with the implementation of a particular project. For each investment project, its own discount rate is determined, based on the conditions for obtaining a loan and the degree of risk of the project.

If the discount rate changes over time, then the discount factor is determined by formula (6):

where Еt is a variable discount rate.

Taking into account the discount factor, the calculation of the reduced capital investments (CPR) is carried out, i.e. such, the cost, the value of which is determined at the time of the start of the project. We present the calculations in formula (7):

where t is the calculation step or the time period for which the calculation is carried out;

Кt - capital investments at the t-th step of calculation or in the t-th period of time.

Calculation of indicators of net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return, payback period is carried out taking into account the discount factor.

Net present value (NPV) or integral effect is defined as the sum of current effects for the entire calculation period, reduced to the initial step, or as the excess of integral results over integral costs, as shown in formula (8):

where Rt are the results achieved at the t-th calculation step;

Zt - costs incurred at the T-th calculation step.

In practice, a modified formula for determining net present value may be used. When calculating it, the amount of capital investments is subtracted from the costs Zt and costs without taking into account capital investments are denoted Zt+. This formula (9) looks like:

The project is considered effective if the net present value is positive. If several projects are compared, then the optimal one is the one whose net present value is positive and maximum.

The profitability index is the ratio of the sum of the reduced effects to the amount of capital investment, as shown in formula (10):

When determining it, the same elements are used as in the modified formula for net present value, and if the net present value is positive, then the value of the profitability index is more than 1.

A project is considered effective if the value of the profitability index is more than 1.

The internal rate of return represents the discount rate at which the magnitude of the reduced effects is equal to the magnitude of the reduced capital investments.

They are determined by solving the following equation:

where is Evn. - internal rate of return. If its value is greater than or equal to the rate of return on invested capital required by the investor, then from his point of view, investing in this project is effective.

The payback period is the minimum time interval (from the start of the project), beyond which the integral effect becomes and remains positive in the future, i.e. This is the time during which the results obtained from the implementation of the project cover the amount of funds invested in it.

2. Assessing the effectiveness of an investment project using the example of VOJSC Khimprom

2.1 Economic characteristics of the enterprise VOJSC Khimprom

OJSC "Khimprom" is one of the largest enterprises in the domestic chemical complex.

Currently, the main activities of JSC Khimprom are the production and sale of chemical products for technical purposes, and this is an impressive list of inorganic and organochlorine compounds, polymers and plasticizers, solvents and refrigerants.

One of the new activities of the enterprise is the production of fire retardants (flame retardants).

OJSC "Khimprom" is actively engaged in the production of consumer goods, including various types of synthetic detergents, insecticides, disinfectants and detergents, and car care products.

In 2005, JSC Khimprom launched a modern Italian line for the production of aerosol preparations.

OJSC Khimprom has enormous production capacity for plant protection chemicals and intends to actively develop this promising area.

The range of products includes more than 120 items. This is the widest range among chemical enterprises in our country.

OJSC "Khimprom" has all the capabilities to produce high-quality chemical products that meet the most demanding requirements of customers in Russia and abroad.

Construction of the first-born of Volgograd Chemistry began in mid-1929, and already on June 1, 1931, the first units were launched. Built among 518 industrial facilities planned for commissioning under the first five-year national economic plan of the USSR, the plant gradually increased its production capacity. By the beginning of 1938, the enterprise became a leader in the industry in terms of its potential.

The sixties of the last century became “stellar” in the history of the chemical plant. Their first half was characterized by the highest rates of development of new technologies, industries, and equipment. Over the seven-year period (1959-1965), it was possible to increase the volume of output by 4.9 times. More than 800 improvement proposals were introduced by factory inventors. On March 26, 1965, the enterprise, which until then bore code names - plant PO Box No. 91, chemical plant "Volga", plant PO Box No. 5 - was given its first open name: Volgograd Chemical Plant named after. S.M.Kirova.

The plant continued technical re-equipment and reconstruction. The range of products produced exceeded one hundred items. Considerable importance was also given to the culture of production, establishing and maintaining exemplary order and landscaping the territory of the enterprise.

Since 1988, the plant has reached the international level. The first to establish direct trade and economic ties were with Bulgaria and Hungary. Good experience was gained in the further development of foreign trade activities.

In the early 90s, the country began to experience a sharp decline in production volumes, and the living standards of the population dropped noticeably. All this did not bypass Volgograd chemists. In the first years of the post-Soviet period, Khimprom employed about 12 thousand people, produced about 160 types of products, and the company supplied its products to more than 10 thousand consumers, including 12 countries far and near abroad.

On February 21, 1995, PA Khimprom was transformed into a Volgograd open joint-stock company, the main shareholder of which was the state represented by the Ministry of Property Relations of the Russian Federation (51% of shares). Unfortunately, the enterprise turned out to be not quite ready for the new economic and social conditions of the transition period. It was not possible to avoid significant accounts payable due to the uncontrolled rise in energy prices, huge costs of maintaining social infrastructure and insufficient profits due to a decrease in consumer payment demand.

The Management Board and the Board of Directors of the enterprise developed measures to increase the volume of production and sales of seasonal products, increase profitability and product quality. By mid-1996, the financial position of the enterprise had improved somewhat. On July 31, 1996, JSC Khimprom was renamed into Volgograd Open Joint Stock Company Khimprom. The company operates under this name to this day.

The Company is an independent commercial organization with the rights of a legal entity. The Company has an independent balance sheet, settlement and other accounts in banking institutions of the Russian Federation and abroad in rubles and foreign currency, as well as a duly registered trademark and other means of visual identification.

The amount of the authorized capital of the Company is 200,804,100 (two hundred million eight hundred four thousand one hundred) rubles.

The main performance indicators over the years 2006-2008 are reflected in Table 1.

Table 1 Key performance indicators over time for 2006-2008

Indicators	Absolute deviations +(-)	Deviations in %

Revenue from sales of services
Cost of services provided
Gross profit
Revenue from sales
Other operating income
Other operating expenses
Revenue from sales of services
Non-operating expenses
Profit before tax
Net profit

The cost of production in 2008 increased by 347,597 thousand rubles. or by 15.15%.

Due to the fact that the growth in sales revenue was higher than the growth in costs, in 2008 there was an increase in profit from sales of sales by 78,518 thousand rubles or 3.5 times.

Summing up the overall results of activities, it must be said that the highest indicators were noted in 2008. This is due to an increase in production volumes.

Recently, a new direction has emerged - the processing of natural gas into chemical products. Currently, the laboratory team is theoretically considering the concept of technology for producing ethylene and propylene from methane under the conditions of chlor-alkali production infrastructure. The laboratory has a rich, at the academic institute level, instrumental base in the field of processing PVC into plastics. Here, intensive development of polymer compositions is being carried out in order to reduce their cost, reduce flammability and smoke formation. The plastics testing complex determines the mechanical properties of manufactured products. The laboratory equipment allows the use of gas-liquid chromatography (with capillary columns), spectrophotometry, and atomic emission spectroscopy with inductively coupled plasma. To carry out work on the inspection of technical devices with the issuance of conclusions on the service life of their safe operation, the division has a non-destructive testing laboratory, instrumentation, regulatory and technical documentation, and specialists in the field of industrial safety. The laboratory has a license from Rostechnadzor to conduct industrial safety examinations of technical devices used to conduct industrial safety examinations of technical devices used at hazardous production facilities, which allows us to give conclusions about the suitability of a particular equipment and determine its service life.

2.2 Main results of the analysis of the enterprise’s economic activities

OJSC Khimprom is a large holding company, which includes subsidiaries. Consolidated financial statements for 2008-2009 showed an increase in the book value of assets and equity. The source of increase in the value of equity capital is the company's net profit, which tends to grow.

The value of own current assets for the analyzed period is decreasing, which is due to the rapid growth of accounts payable compared to the dynamics of current assets. In the structure of current assets, the main share is accounts receivable, which also increases in the analyzed period. An increase in accounts receivable affects a decrease in turnover rates.

In the analyzed period, a negative trend in the decline in solvency indicators was also revealed, which was caused by a decrease in the amount of own working capital.

At the same time, there is an increase in performance indicators.

Return on sales characterizes the share of profit from sales in total revenue. It increased from 24% to 28%, because sales profit grew at a faster rate than revenue. Net profit margin reflects the share of net profit in the company's revenue. There is a tremendous increase here from 10% in 2008 to 31% in 2009, this is explained by a sharp jump in net profit due to an increase in the “other expenses” item, this is due to the sale of old mercury electrolysis equipment due to the transition to new technology. The profitability of all assets of an enterprise shows the profit per each cost unit of assets and is an indicator of competitiveness. In addition, it helps to identify the impact of taxes and other payments from profits. At Khimprom OJSC there is an increase in this indicator from 28.6% to 36.2%, which indicates an increase in competitiveness due to an increase in sales profits.

An analysis of the profitability indicators of the enterprise OJSC Khimprom is presented in Table 2.

Table 2 Analysis of enterprise profitability indicators

Indicators	Calculation formula	Changes

1. Sales revenue, million rubles.
2. Cost, million rubles.
3. Profit from sales, million rubles.	page 1 - page 2
4. Net profit, million rubles.
5. Average annual value of property, million rubles.
6. Average annual cost of insurance, million rubles.
7. Average annual value of OK, million rubles.
Profitability
	p.3/p.1
Net profitability, %	p.4/p.1
Assets, %	p.3/p.5
Own capital, %	p.3/p.6
Working capital, %	p.4/p.7

Return on equity reflects the efficiency of using the enterprise's equity capital. In 2009, this ratio was 72.5%, i.e. The company uses its own capital as efficiently as possible. Return on working capital shows the ability of an enterprise to provide profit from working capital; this indicator changed from 50% to 175%, i.e. Each ruble of working capital brought 50 kopecks, then in 2009 it began to bring 175 kopecks, therefore, the efficiency of using working capital has increased. Thus, the profitability indicators of Khimprom OJSC indicate that the company’s profitability has increased, because all indicators reflecting operational efficiency have increased significantly.

To obtain a more complete picture of the financial condition of Khimprom OJSC, it is necessary to calculate such indicators as the effect of financial leverage (EFF), the strength of financial leverage (SFR), the strength of operating leverage (SOR) and the level of the cumulative effect of both levers (USE). We present the calculations in Table 3.

Table 3 Information on the financial condition of JSC Khimprom

Indicators	Calculation formula
1Return on assets (ERA), %	From the table 2
2Return on equity (REC), %	From the table 2
3Balance sheet profit, thousand rubles.
4 Interest on loan, thousand rubles.
	str2-str1(1-dn)
	1+page4/page3
	Revenue - variable costs/gross profit
	Page6 *page7

The meaning of financial leverage is the action of increasing the return on equity capital (REC) at the expense of “other people’s money” - borrowed funds (BL), the EFR shows how much the return on each own ruble has increased compared to the economic return on all assets in percentage terms, this indicator on our the enterprise increased from 40% to 45%. The effect of operating leverage is that any changes in sales revenue generate stronger changes in current profit: Sales are growing, therefore, current profit is growing at a faster rate; Sales are falling, therefore, current profits are falling at a faster rate. At Khimprom OJSC there is practically no operating leverage, this is explained by the insignificant share of fixed costs in the total volume of production, namely this share is 0.1%. The level of total risk is measured by the value of the USE - the level of the cumulative effect of both levers. The higher the value of the ESE, the higher the total risk of the enterprise.

The ESE shows by what percentage profit will change if sales change by 1%. At this enterprise, the level of total risk is insignificant and tends to decline. This indicates stable, non-risky production.

In general, the enterprise has the necessary economic conditions to implement an investment project.

2.3 Forecasting the development prospects of VOJSC Khimprom

It is known that the capacity of the PVC market in the world and in Russia is determined not only by the volume of demand for PVC, but also by the volume of demand for caustic soda, which is obtained in the production of chlorine, as one of the two main sources of raw materials for the production of polyvinyl chloride. Forecast of PVC market capacity for the future for the period up to 2020. presented in Table 4.

Table 4 Forecast of PVC market capacity for the period until 2020

Name

Demand of everything
Including:
Plastic compounds
Profile molded products
Linoleum
Pipes and pipeline parts

Container and packaging
Other products

The volume of the Russian PVC market in 2020 should increase by 2.9 times compared to 2006 and reach 1,540 thousand tons per year. Moreover, the highest growth rates should be expected for such consumers as pipes and pipeline parts, containers and packaging, and profile molded products, which are the most in demand in world practice.

The availability of free space (the property of OJSC Khimprom) intended to accommodate the 2nd and 3rd stages of the Sayan Chemical Plant significantly reduces the cost of building new production facilities. The social infrastructure of Volgograd is also designed to support a large industrial complex (in addition to the existing PVC production and its continuation in the 2nd and 3rd stages, it was also planned to build an oil refinery for the production of ethylene and a phosphate fertilizer plant at the Volgograd site). Based on these factors, the production site of Khimprom OJSC and the city of Volgograd itself is the most favorable point for locating the largest gas chemical complex.

The regional project is the beginning of a long journey to develop the field. The regional project at the industrial site of JSC Khimprom provides for the construction of a gas processing complex (GPC), consisting of gas separation plants for natural gas (with the release of ethane, propane, butanes), production of ethylene, separation and liquefaction of helium. Ethylene is used at Khimprom OJSC to increase the production of polyvinyl chloride to 400 thousand tons. in year.

For the construction of a helium separation plant, Cryoplast CJSC was created on November 3, 2007, the founders being Khimprom OJSC and KRIOR LLC, a Russian manufacturer and supplier of commercial helium. In May 2007, JSC “Krioplast” completed the development of a feasibility study (project) “Helium Production”.

The regional project is already being implemented. The operator of the project is the East Siberian Gas Company, which is constructing the Kovykta - Volgograd - Irkutsk gas pipeline. The first stage is close to completion - laying a gas pipeline to Zhigalovo. The costs of JSC ESGK for the project have already amounted to about $160 million. The costs of JSC Khimprom for design work and preparation of construction are $7 million.

The implementation of the regional project ensures:

the formation of a new economic sector in the Irkutsk region;

in 2007-2011 direct investments - $1.5 - 1.8 billion.

creation of new jobs (operation period) - direct employment of more than 1 thousand jobs, employment in related industries - from 4 to 5 thousand jobs;

annual tax revenues since 2010 to the consolidated budget of the region - $35-45 million.

improving the environmental situation in the region.

new export opportunities, incl. increasing the volume of exports of chemical products to Asia-Pacific countries. The scheme of the regional project is presented in Appendix A (Table A.1), as well as the social benefits of implementing the regional project in Appendix A (Table A.2).

2.4 Feasibility of an investment project for the construction of a gas processing complex

We have developed a project for the construction of a gas processing complex.

The natural gas processing complex consists of 3 installations: natural gas processing, helium production, and ethylene production. The plant's ethylene capacity was set at 190,000 t/year. based on the needs and plans for the reconstruction of polyvinyl chloride production. Since the C2+ raw material released at the natural gas processing plant is not enough for the planned ethylene capacity, we also propose, as one of the options, to involve external raw materials in the production in an amount of about 7 tons/hour. In the project of a natural gas processing plant, you can use the licensed Cryomax technology, which is characterized by the fact that an ethane recovery rate of 95% is achieved with a minimum number of equipment at minimum energy and operating costs. The project does not provide for the possibility of autonomous operation of a natural gas processing plant; it can only work in conjunction with an ethylene plant. The design of an installation for the production of ethylene using the method of steam pyrolysis of ethane uses pyrolysis furnaces with vertical radian displacement coils of the SMK type and cassette ZIA at the outlet of each coil.

Gas separation is based on low-temperature rectification by sequential separation of the light component in distillation columns.

The project uses the world's best samples of zeolites and catalysts with promoters - unique equipment, including turboexpanders with magnetic bearings, turbocompressors with dry mechanical seals, aluminum plate multi-flow heat exchangers. In order to reduce equipment contamination (polymerization), as well as the water cycle and boiler equipment with pipelines will be treated with NALCO reagents. In general, the project was completed at a high level and corresponds to the best world complexes.

The estimate of capital costs for the design and construction of a gas processing complex according to the feasibility study of the project, carried out by us on the basis of the basic design, amounted to 520 million US dollars at January 2007 prices, including 402 million US dollars for the project.

The main reasons for the discrepancy in the assessment of capital costs for the design and construction of a gas processing complex:

The investment justification did not take into account some components necessary for the operation of the gas processing complex (Liquefied gas warehouse, Local treatment facilities, Auxiliary boilers, Sulfur-alkaline waste neutralization unit, Tar water combustion unit, etc.);

Increase in price due to increased equipment costs.

In order to reduce capital costs and obtain a firm price, a contract was concluded with Toyo Engineering Corporation (TPP, Japan) for the pre-basic design of a gas processing complex in Volgograd. Taking into account the new schedule for the supply of natural gas presented by JSC VSGC, the natural gas processing capacity was determined at 4 billion n.e. m3 per year. The feedstock for the ethylene plant in this project is ethane and propane.

The natural gas processing plant is designed using Coreflux-C2 technology. It is characterized by the fact that, with an ethane recovery rate of 95%, it has minimal energy and operating costs, due to the fact that the demethanizer reflux is formed not from recycle, but from part of the processed gas flow. The installation can operate autonomously; it includes a unit for separating the C2+ fraction into components: propane, C3/C4 fraction, butane, gasoline. It is possible to operate the demethanizer in diethanizer mode, as well as return ethane to the main gas pipeline.

All this makes the installation very flexible in terms of operating modes, and increases its viability in various emergency situations. The ethylene production plant was built under license from ABB Lumus.

The project uses components with the latest technology. So, to saturate the raw material with water vapor, a saturator, a column apparatus with a nozzle, is used, on which the raw material is saturated with water vapor. After the pyrolysis furnaces, the steam is condensed in a quenching column, and the resulting process water is purified in a DOX block supply unit. After cleaning, the process water again enters the saturator. The applied technology of a closed cycle of process water increases the efficiency of the installation, reduces harmful emissions of contaminated water, and reduces energy costs.

Pyrolysis furnaces are designed with vertical radiant coils using SRT-VI technology. In the decoking mode, combustion gases are burned in the furnace of the pyrolysis furnace, which reduces harmful emissions into the atmosphere. Gas separation uses a unique low-pressure demethanizer technology.

Gas separation is based on low-temperature rectification by sequential separation of the light component in distillation columns. The project uses the world's best samples of zeolites and catalysts with promoters, as well as unique equipment, including turboexpanders with magnetic bearings, turbocompressors with dry mechanical seals, and aluminum plate multi-flow heat exchangers. In order to reduce equipment contamination (polymerization), as well as the water cycle and boiler equipment with pipelines will be treated with NALCO reagents. The project as a whole was completed at a high level and complies with the best international standards.

The estimate of capital costs for the design and construction of a gas processing complex within the design boundaries of the TPP company amounted to 539.4 million US dollars at October 2007 prices, against 422.4 million US dollars.

The difference between capital investment estimates was $117 million. According to our proposal, the construction schedule for the gas processing complex is designed for 2 years. A feasibility study project prepared for passing the state examination, the regulatory period for which will be 14 months. The only correct solution for the construction of a gas processing complex from the point of view of reducing capital and operating costs and compliance with industrial safety rules is the construction and commissioning of a gas processing complex as part of all installations simultaneously, as provided for in the projects of engineering companies. Equipment for a gas processing complex must be selected in such a way as to ensure basic performance indicators

Installations, namely:

Reliability and safety of operation;

Environmental safety, ensuring minimal emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere and water bodies;

Ensuring high technological guarantee indicators;

...

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Currently, the effectiveness of investment projects is assessed in accordance with “Methodological recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects and their selection for financing”, approved by the State Construction Committee of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation, Resolution of the State Committee for Industry of the Russian Federation on Construction, Architecture and Housing Policy of the Russian Federation dated June 21, 1999 No. VK-477. These methodological recommendations were developed on the basis of the UNIDO international performance assessment system. These recommendations include a fundamentally new approach to performance assessment.

The effectiveness of the project is characterized by a system of indicators reflecting the ratio of costs and results in relation to project participants. Assessment of upcoming costs and results when determining efficiency is carried out within billing period, the duration of which is called "calculation horizon". The calculation horizon is measured calculation steps, and the calculation step when determining efficiency is a month, quarter or year. All calculations are carried out in base, forecast and estimated prices.

Discount coefficient(same as reduction factor) ^ is calculated as follows:

I,=(1 + E„

where E n is the standard for bringing simultaneous costs and results, numerically equal to the standard for the efficiency of capital investments (0.1); 1 - accounting year; / - year, the costs and results of which are reduced to the accounting year.

First year: b"= 0.9091; tenth year: b (= 0.3855, etc.

Valuation of costs for implementing scientific and technological progress measures for the billing period includes the costs of production and use of products:

Calculation of costs for production and use of products carried out as follows:

where 3" (i) is the amount of all costs in a year t, including associated results (see “Typical Procedure”); ? (n) - reduction coefficient; I, - current costs per year t(full cost); K, - one-time costs in the production (use) of products; L? - residual cost (liquidation balance) of fixed assets retiring in the year l

In cases where at the end of the accounting period there are fixed assets that can still be used, L is defined as the residual value of these funds.

To avoid repeated calculation of the same costs when calculating the effectiveness of scientific and technological progress measures, a certain procedure for accounting for current (I) and one-time (K?) costs has been adopted.

One-time costs include: research work, experimental and design work, product development, production development, acquisition costs, dismantling, delivery, adjustment, etc., construction costs. Costs are taken into account as non-recurring costs only in cases where the results of pre-production work are used only by this enterprise.

Basic flails- established in the national economy for a certain period. The base price for any resource is considered unchanged for the entire period. Basic prices are used, as a rule, at the stage of feasibility studies of the object (pre-design). At the stage of the feasibility study of the project (feasibility study) and to perform mandatory efficiency calculations, forecast and estimated prices are used:

where C prog is the predicted price; C b - base price; 1 c - price change index at the end of the step t.

Estimated prices are used to calculate integral performance indicators (integral or summary, generalizing), if current costs and results are expressed in forecast prices to achieve comparability and compare results obtained at different levels of information.

Forecast prices, as well as base and estimated prices, can be expressed in dollars, euros or rubles.

When assessing the effectiveness of investment projects, the comparison of indicators at different times is carried out by reducing (discounting) them to the value in the initial version. To bring all costs and benefits, it is used discount rate, which is defined as follows:

1,= 1/(1 + E Uh,

Where b (- reduction factor; E - discount rate; t- calculation step number (time period, which is defined in years, quarters, months).

The discount rate is considered equal to the rate of return on capital. It is recommended to compare different options for investment projects and select the best one using the following system of indicators:

net discounted (present) income (integral effect);
profitability index;
internal rate of return (profitability, profitability);
payback period;
other indicators reflecting the interests of participants or the specifics of the project.
1. Net present value (NPV), equal to the integral effect, is determined by the formula:

Where - result achieved at the step 1 calculation; 3 / - costs at the same step (for the same period); T - calculation horizon; 1 / (1 + E/ - discount rate; E 1= (/?, - 3?) - effect achieved at the step t.

2. The profitability index (RI) is the ratio of the sum of the given effects to the amount of capital investment.

where K is the amount of discounted capital investments, which can be determined as follows:

where K is the amount of capital investment at step / (in a certain year, month, quarter).

ID is closely related to NPV (same components). If ID > 1, then NPV will be effective and positive if ID

The internal rate of return represents the discount rate E in at which the value of the reduced effects is equal to the reduced capital investment and is a solution to the equation:

where E inn is the internal discount rate.

4. Payback period is currently the minimum time interval beyond which the result remains positive (but beyond it the integral indicator becomes irreversible). It is recommended to determine it using discounting. If necessary, all of the above formulas should take into account inflation, i.e. all prices must be brought into a comparable form.

In addition to these indicators, when justifying the effectiveness of an investment project, others are used: break-even point, rate of profit, rate of return on capital and others (capital productivity, unit cost of production, labor intensity, capital-labor ratio).

None of the above indicators is sufficient in itself to make a decision about the project - must be taken into account All indicators (as well as opinions all participants project), budgetary efficiency plus socio-economic, environmental and other factors(for example, political). The given system of indicators reflects the ratio of costs and results in relation to the interests of its participants, and to determine the effectiveness of the investment project as a whole, indicators of commercial, budgetary and economic efficiency are calculated (Fig. 9.1).

Rice. 9.1.

Commercial viability

Commercial effectiveness of the project determined by the ratio of financial costs and results that provide the required rate of return. Commercial efficiency is calculated both for the project as a whole and for its individual participants. When implementing a project and calculating commercial efficiency, three types of activities are distinguished: investment, operational, and financial.

When calculating commercial efficiency, the following indicators are used:

1. Flow of real money is defined as the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from two types of activities: investing and operating.

The real money flow is:

A~ Pc/) - Od/) + p 2(0 - o 2(0 ,

where P 1(/) - inflow from investment activity; P 9(/) - inflow from operating activity; 0 |(/) - outflow from investment activity; 0 2(/) - outflow from operating activity.

2. Balance of money sold, which is determined from three types of activities:

hell=1(n„,)-o,)).

3. Balance of accumulated money:

= ?*(*), k=0

Where To - the number of activities that will be taken into account; b(k) - current balance of real (cash) money; G - period.

4. Period of full repayment of debt (this indicator is close to the payback period indicator).
5. Participant’s share in the total investment:
- (Participant's share / Total investment amount) x 100%.

Flow of real (cash) money from investing activities

includes the following types of income and expenses step by step t. It is determined through a combination of the following indicators:

1) land;
2) buildings and structures;
3) machinery and equipment, transmission device;
4) intangible assets (raw materials, fuel, etc.);
5) total: investments in fixed capital;
6) increase in working capital;
7) total: investments.
(5) = (1) + (2) = (3) + (4)
(7) = (5) + (6).

The flow of real (cash) money from operating activities includes the following indicators:

1) sales volume (i.e. sales);
2) price;
3) revenue (3) = (1) x (2);
4) non-operating income (rent payments, etc.);
5) variable costs;
6) fixed costs (management, bank interest, management fees);
7) depreciation of buildings;
8) depreciation of equipment;
9) interest on loans;
10) profit before taxes (10) = (3) + (4) - (5) - (6) - (7) --(8);
11) taxes and fees;
12) projected net income (12) = (10) - (11);
13) depreciation (13) = (7) + (8);
14) net inflow from operation (14) = (12) + (13).

Flow of real (cash) money from financial activities includes the following inflows and outflows:

1) own capital;
2) short-term loans (days, month);
3) long-term loans (over 1 year);
4) repayment of loan debts;
5) payment of dividends;
6) balance of financial activities (6) = (1) + (2) + (3) - (4).

When calculating commercial efficiency is also determined

the net liquidation value of the property, which is the difference between the market price and taxes.

Book value of an object is defined as the difference between initial costs and accrued depreciation.

When calculating the flow of real (cash) money, one should keep in mind the fundamental difference between the inflow and outflow of real (cash) money. There are various cash expenses that reduce net income but do not affect the flow of real (cash) money. Why is this and what are the costs? These are cash expenses that do not involve transactions for the transfer of cash, assets and depreciation of fixed assets.

In order to ensure comparability of calculation results and increase the reliability of these calculations (project efficiency, etc.), it is recommended:

1) determine the flow of real (cash) money in forecast prices (base price multiplied by the inflation index and in the same units of measurement (dollars, rubles));
2) determine the efficiency integral in calculated prices;
3) carry out calculations for different options for a set of indicators of the initial data.

A necessary criterion for accepting an investment project is the positive balance of accumulated real (cash) money in any time interval where a given project participant incurs costs and receives income, and NPV, VID, ID (return index) are additionally taken into account.

Budget efficiency

Budget efficiency indicators reflect the impact of project implementation results on the revenues and expenses of the relevant budgets (federal, regional, local). The main indicators of budget efficiency are budget effect. It is determined by the following formula:

where D(/) - budget revenues for a period of time; Р(/) - budget expenses for a period of time.

Income (D(/)) includes:

VAT and all other tax revenues;

rent payments;
budget revenues from customs duties;
share premium from the issue of securities for the ongoing project;
dividends on shares owned by the region;
income tax revenues to the budget from all individuals;
licensing revenues;
repayment of local loans (from projects);
fines, penalties, penalties (which are paid by enterprises), etc.

Expenses (P(0)) include:

funds allocated for direct and budgetary financing of the project;
loans from central, regional and local banks;
payment of unemployment benefits;
direct budget allocations for premiums to market energy prices;
payments on government securities;
state and regional guarantees of investment risk.

Based on indicators of budget effect (income and expenses), when calculating budget efficiency, the following is additionally calculated:

1) internal norm of budget efficiency, comparative efficiency of GNI;

payback period for budget costs; degree of financial participation of the state.

Economic efficiency

When selecting investment projects, the circle of participants not directly related to the implementation of the projects is determined.

Economic efficiency is determined at three levels: national economic, regional, local.

1. When calculating economic efficiency indicators at the level of the national economy taken into account:
- final economic results (sales volumes on the domestic and foreign markets, proceeds from the sale of property, from the sale of intellectual property);
- social and economic results;
- direct and final financial results (GDP, national income, etc., the volume of total GDP production);
- credits and loans from foreign countries.
2. At the regional level taken into account:
- regional operating results;
- social and environmental regional outcomes;
- indirect financial results (obtained by enterprises and the population) and a number of others.
3. Locally When calculating economic efficiency indicators, the following results are taken into account:
- volumes of product sales;
- profit volumes;
- changes in average wages, cost of goods sold;
- change in technical and economic indicators (capital-labor ratio, etc.).

When implementing large-scale investment projects with the participation of foreign countries, the global economic efficiency of the project is calculated. At the same time, the project results in value terms include:

the final integral results that each project participant receives;
social and environmental results calculated based on the joint impact on natural and climatic conditions and the population of countries.

Large-scale production projects must be developed at world prices, which are formed by the companies that produce the majority of these products (i.e., monopolists).

To recalculate labor costs for Russian and foreign participants, use conversion factor:

Features of project effectiveness assessment taking into account yaw factors And uncertainty. Economic activity occurs under conditions of uncertainty, as it is associated with the market situation, the behavior of other organizations (enterprises), their expectations and decisions. Any investment activity contains a certain amount of risk, which the entrepreneur assumes. When achieving the goals of an investment project, unforeseen circumstances may arise. These unforeseen circumstances, or dangers, are usually called risks. When evaluating projects, the following types of uncertainty and investment risks seem to be the most significant.

1. Risk associated with instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation.
2. Foreign economic risk (imposition of restrictions on the supply of goods, closure of borders).
3. Uncertainty of the political situation and unfavorable socio-political changes in the country or region.
4. Fluctuations in market conditions, exchange rates and prices.
5. Uncertainty of natural and climatic conditions.
6. Production and technological risk (equipment failures, accidents, etc.) (calculation should be carried out for the latest models of equipment).
7. Uncertainty of the goals, interests and behavior of participants.
8. Incomplete or inaccurate information about the financial situation and goals of the participants.

To account for uncertainty and risk, the following three methods are recommended: resilience design; adjustments to project parameters and economic parameters, formalized description of uncertainties.

The first method - sustainability project - involves the development of various project implementation scenarios. For each option, the effect of the economic and organizational mechanism for project implementation is examined. Income and expenses, losses for all participants are determined. A project is considered sustainable and effective if the interests of all its participants are respected in all cases.

In this case, the degree of sustainability is determined by the maximum level of sales volumes, the level of prices, income, costs, etc., and the break-even point must be calculated. In practice, to assess risk, the break-even point is calculated. Under break-even point understand the level of production, business activity or sales at which total costs equal total revenue, i.e. total current expenses are equal to total income from the project:

C=I post/(C-I lane),

Where 0 - the amount of production required to achieve the break-even point; And post is a semi-fixed cost; and psr - conditionally variable costs per unit of production; P is the price of a unit of production.

Based on the calculation of the break-even point, it is determined safety band level:

where U r is the level of profitability (safety) reserve; (? prog - projected sales volume.

The lower the safety margin, the higher the risk.

The uncertainty calculated by the second method - the method of adjusting project parameters and economic parameters - takes into account the timing of project construction and construction and installation work, average construction duration, average construction costs, delays in the receipt of funds, irregular supply of raw materials and equipment, and economic efficiency standards.

The most accurate, but also complex, is the third method - the method of formalized description of uncertainties. It involves the following steps:

description of the entire set of possible conditions for the implementation of the project;
transformation of initial information into relevant economic indicators;
determination of performance indicators for the project as a whole with

taking into account uncertainties.

In this case, the expected integral effect is calculated (for the project as a whole):

where E ozh e f - expected integral effect; E / - integral effect provided / implementation of the project; R. is the probability of this condition being realized.

The most effective option is considered to be the one where the expected integral effect is minimal.

For risk management The following methods exist and are used during the investment phase of the project:

distribution of risk between project participants (transfer of part of the risk to co-executors);
insurance;
reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses;
neutralization of private risks;
reducing risks in terms of financing.

In practice, risk allocation is implemented during the preparation of the project plan and contract documents. It should be remembered that the greater the degree of risk the project participants are going to assign to investors, the more difficult it will be to find investors. Therefore, project participants must show maximum flexibility in the process of negotiations with the investor regarding how much risk they agree to take on.

Risk insurance consists essentially of transferring certain risks to the insurance company. Typically, risk insurance is provided through property and casualty insurance.

Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses is a way to counteract risk. It involves establishing a relationship between potential risks affecting the cost of the project and the amount of expenses necessary to overcome failures in the implementation of projects.

For this:

the potential consequences of risks are assessed, i.e. amounts to cover unforeseen expenses;
the structure of the reserve to cover unforeseen expenses is determined;
the purposes for using the established reserve are determined. It is important to note that part of the reserve should always be in

hands of the project manager.

By private we mean risks associated with the implementation of individual stages (work) of the project, but not directly affecting the entire project as a whole.

Sequence of steps when using the private risk method next:

1. The risk that is of greatest importance to the project is considered.
2. Cost overruns are determined taking into account the likelihood of an adverse event occurring.
3. A list of possible measures aimed at reducing the importance of the risk (reducing its likelihood or danger) is determined.
4. Additional costs for the implementation of the proposed measures are determined.
5. The required costs for implementing the proposed measures are compared with possible cost overruns due to the occurrence of a risk event.
6. A decision is made to apply risk countermeasures.
7. The risk analysis process is repeated for the next most important risk.

Risks in terms of financing. The project financing plan, which is part of the project plan, must take into account the following types of risks:

the risk of project non-viability, i.e. investors must be confident that the expected revenues from the project will be sufficient to cover costs, pay off debt and ensure a return on investment;
tax risk includes the inability to use, for one reason or another, tax benefits provided by current legislation; changes in tax legislation; Tax service decisions that reduce tax benefits. Typically, investors protect themselves from tax risk through appropriate guarantees that are included in agreements and contracts;
the risk of non-payment of debts may arise when there is a temporary decrease in income due to a short-term drop in demand for the project’s products or a decrease in prices for them. To overcome such risk reduction measures, such as the formation of reserve funds, the possibility of additional financing of the project, deductions of a certain percentage of proceeds from the sale of the project product are used;
risk of unfinished construction.

Investors are concerned about the risk of incurring additional costs associated with late completion of the project's construction base due to inflation, currency fluctuations, environmental issues, and government regulations. Therefore, before construction begins, project participants must agree on guarantees for its timely completion.

TEST QUESTIONS AND TASKS

1. What is the main economic essence of investment?
2. What is the difference between gross capital investments and net ones?
3. What indicators can act as an effect?
4. What is the difference between effect and effectiveness?
5. How is the overall or absolute efficiency of capital investments calculated and what is the economic meaning?
6. What is the economic meaning of the reduction coefficient?
7. What methods of assessing associated results are used when making capital investments?
8. What is an investment project and what are the main stages and phases of this process?
9. What is the economic meaning of discounting?
10. What indicators are used to calculate the comparative effectiveness of an investment project?
11. What indicators are used to determine commercial efficiency?
12. What characterizes and what indicators are used to determine budget efficiency?
13. Describe the procedure for calculating the economic efficiency of a project.
14. What types of uncertainty and risk may investment projects contain?
15. What methods are used to calculate the uncertainty and risk of a project?
16. What are the goals of investing in the enterprise?
17. What could be the sources of financing for the project?
18. How is the payback period of a project determined?
19. What is the economic meaning of the following indicators: internal rate of return, net present value, profitability index?

= Scm / Sq, where Scm is the total cost of goods and services included in the consumer basket in world prices; SQ is the same, but in the domestic prices of the corresponding country. When calculating economic efficiency, a system of indicators from commercial and budgetary efficiency can be additionally used.

Investment project – justification of the economic feasibility, volume and timing of capital investments, including the necessary design and estimate documentation developed in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation and duly approved standards (norms and rules), as well as a description of practical actions for making investments (business - plan).

Payback period of the investment project is the period from the date of commencement of financing of the investment project until the day when the actual volume of investments is equal to the amount of net profit accumulated by the investor and accrued accrued depreciation on depreciable property owned by the investor, created as a result of investment activities.

The basis of a firm's investment decision is the calculation of the present value of future earnings. The firm must determine whether future profits will exceed its costs or not. The opportunity cost of investment will be the amount of bank interest on capital equal to the volume of the proposed investment. This is the essence of the firm's investment decision. At the same time, the choice of a company is complicated by the presence of a situation of uncertainty that arises due to the fact that investments are usually long-term.

In financial and investment calculations, the process of reducing future income to current value is usually called discounting.

When assessing the feasibility of investments, a discount rate (capitalization) is established, i.e. interest rate characterizing the investor's rate of return (a relative indicator of the minimum annual income). Using discount (accounting interest), a special discount factor (based on the compound interest formula) is determined to bring investments and cash flows in different years to the present moment.

Discount rate in a broad sense, it represents the opportunity cost of fixed capital and expresses the rate of return that the company could receive from alternative capital investments.

For a constant discount rate E discount coefficient a t determined by the formula:

where t is the number of the calculation step.

The result of comparing two projects with different distributions of the effect over time can significantly depend on the discount rate. Therefore, her choice is important. Typically this value is determined based on the deposit interest on deposits. We need to accept more of it at the expense of inflation and risk.

When all capital is borrowed, the discount rate is the appropriate interest rate determined by the terms of interest payments and loan repayments.

When capital is mixed, the discount rate can be found as the weighted average cost of capital, calculated taking into account the capital structure and tax system.

Any company in any market is forced to invest due to the wear and tear of fixed capital in the production process in the hope of increasing its profits. In this regard, the question arises about the advisability of making investments, will they bring additional profit to the company or lead to a loss?

To answer this question, it is necessary to compare the volume of planned capital investments with the current discounted value of future income from these investments. When expected returns are greater than the investment, the firm can invest. If the ratio of these values is inverse, it is better to refrain from investing to avoid losses.

Therefore, the investment condition will look like:

Ie< PDV,

where Ie is the planned volume of investment,

PDV is the current discounted value of future earnings.

The difference between the values presented in the formula is usually called net present value (NPV).

Net present value(net present value, net present value, integral effect) is defined as the sum of current effects for the entire calculation period, reduced to the initial step. Net present value is the excess of the integral inflow of money over the integral outflow (costs).

Obviously, the company makes an investment decision based on a positive net present value, i.e. when (NPV > 0).

Profitability index– the ratio of the sum of the reduced effects to the sum of discounted investments.

Internal efficiency ratio(internal rate of return, internal rate of profitability, rate of return on capital investments) is a discount rate at which the integral economic effect over the life of the investment is zero.

When the internal efficiency ratio is equal to or greater than the rate of return on capital required by investors, investment in a given project is justified. Otherwise, they are inappropriate.

Efficiency assessment must be carried out based on the interests of all its participants: the foreign investor, the enterprise and local and republican governments. According to methodological recommendations, the following types of economic efficiency are distinguished:

· commercial (financial) efficiency , taking into account the financial results of the project for its direct participants;

· budget efficiency , reflecting the financial consequences of the project for the republican and local budgets;

· economic efficiency reflects the impact of the process of implementing an investment project on the environment external to the project and takes into account the ratio of results and costs of the investment project, which are not directly related to the financial interests of the project participants and can be quantitatively assessed.

The methodology for calculating the effectiveness of project implementation consists of four stages:

1. Estimation and analysis of total investment costs. It involves calculating the needs for fixed and working capital, distributing financing needs by stages of the investment cycle (design, construction, installation, commissioning, reaching design capacity, operating at full capacity).

2. Estimation and analysis of current costs. This includes drawing up cost estimates for the production of products (works, services), determining and analyzing the cost of individual types of products (works, services).

3. Calculation and analysis of project commercial efficiency indicators.

4. Determination of budget efficiency indicators.

The main problem when calculating indicators is to bring investment costs and future revenues at different times into a comparable form, i.e. to the initial period.

The assessment of upcoming costs and results is carried out within the calculation period, the duration of which (calculation horizon) is taken into account the weighted average standard service life of the main technological equipment or the requirements of the investor.

To bring indicators at different times, a discount factor is used (α t), determined by the formula:

Where t– year, the costs and results of which are reduced to the initial period (t = 0,1,2,...,T);

Yong– discount rate equal to the rate of return on capital acceptable to the investor.

Purpose of the coefficient Yong consists in the temporary ordering of funds of different time periods. Its economic meaning: what annual percentage return does an investor want or can have on the capital he invests. When setting it, they usually proceed from the level of inflation and the so-called safe or guaranteed level of return on financial investments, which is provided by the state bank when dealing with securities. An important point when determining the discount rate is taking into account risk. Risk in the investment process appears in the form of a possible decrease or loss of the real return on invested capital compared to the expected one.

It is recommended to compare different options for investment projects and select the best one taking into account the use of various indicators, which include:

· net present value (NPV) or integral effect;

· profitability index (ID);

· internal rate of return (IRR);

· payback period;

· other indicators reflecting the interests of the participants and the specifics of the project.

Net present value (NPV or NPV) determined by the formula:

Where: Rt– valuation of the results (amount of cash receipts) achieved at the tth step;

3t– valuation of costs (investment of funds) in period t;

(Rt – 3t)– effect achieved at the tth step.

Net present value is the result of the project, which is the sum of current effects for the entire billing period, defined as the excess of discounted cash receipts over the amount of discounted investment costs.

When comparing investment project options, the one with the maximum net present value is more effective. If NPV<0, то проект неэффективен, и от него следует отказаться.

There are various modifications of formulas for determining the integral effect, reflecting different degrees of detail of monetary resources passing through the enterprise during the billing period, i.e. income and costs.

Pref liability Index (ID or PI) represents the ratio of the sum of the reduced effects to the amount of capital investment. It is determined by the formula:

Where: 3t*– valuation of current costs at the t-th step;

TO– the amount of discounted capital investments:

The profitability index characterizes the average annual return on invested capital during the accounting period.

This indicator is closely related to net present value. If NPV > 0, then ID > 1 and vice versa. If ID>1, the project is effective, if ID<1 – неэффективен. При ИД=1 проект не является ни прибыльным, ни убыточным. Критерием выбора наиболее эффективного варианта является максимальное значение индекса доходности.

Unlike net present value, the profitability index is a relative indicator. Thanks to this, it is very convenient when choosing one project from a number of alternative ones that have approximately the same NPV values, or when assembling an investment portfolio with the maximum total NPV value.

Internal rate of return on investments(GNI) represents the discount rate (Evn), at which the value of the reduced effects is equal to the reduced capital investment or the net present value is zero:

The meaning of calculating this indicator when analyzing the economic efficiency of planned investments is as follows: IRR shows the maximum permissible relative level of income that can be associated with a given project. For example, if a project is financed entirely by a loan from a commercial bank, then the IRR value shows the upper limit of the acceptable bank interest rate, above which the project will be unprofitable.

Selection criterion – the maximum value of GNI, provided that it exceeds the minimum bank interest rate.

Payback period of investment– the minimum time interval (from the start of the project), beyond which the integral effect becomes and subsequently remains non-negative. In other words, this is the period from which initial investments and other costs associated with investment are covered by the total results of its implementation. Simple (non-discount) and discount methods for assessing return on investment allow us to judge the liquidity and riskiness of the project, because long payback means reduced liquidity of the project or increased risk.

The general formula for calculating the payback period is:

Another method for determining the payback period is more reasonable. When using this method, the payback period is understood as the duration of the period during which the amount of net income discounted at the time of completion of the investment is equal to the amount of the discounted investment.

Investment efficiency ratio characterizes the annual profitability of all invested capital, including share capital. It is determined by dividing the average annual profit by the average investment. We compare this indicator with the return on advanced capital ratio, calculated by dividing the total net profit of the enterprise by the total amount of funds advanced into its activities.

In addition to the considered indicators, when evaluating investment projects, other criteria are also used, including integral cost efficiency, break-even point, project financial assessment coefficients (profitability, turnover, financial stability, liquidity), characteristics of the financial section of the business plan. The key categories underlying the rationale for a financial plan include the concepts of real money flow, real money balance, and real money balance.

When implementing an investment project, investment, operating and financial activities and the inflows and outflows of funds corresponding to these types of activities are distinguished.

The real money flow is the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from investment and operating activities in each period of the project. The flow of real money acts in calculations of commercial efficiency as an effect at the tth step (Et) .

A necessary condition for project acceptance is a positive balance of accumulated real money in each period of project implementation.

None of the listed indicators by itself is sufficient for the adoption of the project. The choice of certain investment efficiency indicators is determined by the specific objectives of investment analysis.

Commercial viability. Commercial efficiency is determined by the ratio of costs and results that provide the required rate of return. Commercial efficiency can be calculated both for the project as a whole and for its individual participants.

The enlarged algorithm for assessing commercial efficiency includes the following procedures:

· calculation of the flow and balance of real money for all types of activities (investment, production, and financial in each period of the project;

· determining the acceptability of the project depending on the balance of accumulated real money;

· calculation of integral performance indicators for each investment project option;

· comparative analysis of performance indicators and selection of the best option according to specified criteria.