1 the main demographic problem of the Russian Federation. "The main demographic problems of Russia

Our topic is "Demographic Problems of Russia". We chose her because we believe that solving such problems is one of the main tasks of Russia today. We think that the demographic disadvantage of our country is very relevant today, and therefore we decided to draw the attention of other people to this problem.

In general, demography is the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditioning of this process. Throughout the history of the existence of Russia, the authorities hid the demographic truth from their own people. Until 1985, information on the size of the population, the number of births and deaths was given only in special publications, but data on life expectancy, infant mortality and the number of abortions were never published anywhere. And it is understandable why: after all, these data, like nothing else, reflect the essence - the state of the state.

The state report on the health of the population in 1993 and the analytical report "Health of the population in 1992-1993" make it possible to assess the demographic disadvantage of the country as a demographic catastrophe. In 1990, for the first time in the post-war period, there was a natural decline in the population. At the same time, the mortality rate of the working-age population is growing at an outstripping rate. The excess of mortality over births since 1992 is often estimated as depopulation, i.e. "extinction" of Russia.

The average life expectancy in today's Russia is 57.7 years for men and 71.2 years for women. Let's compare: for the USA and other developed countries this indicator is equal to 73-74 and 79-80 years, respectively.

So, our men live on average 16 years less, and women - 8 less than in the West. Nowadays, the gap in life expectancy between men and women has become approximately 13 years old, which is extremely frightening. This gap is not only due to biological factors. Approximately 4-5 years of this gap are caused by the action of specific factors.

In 1993, the birth rate fell by 15% compared to 1992 and amounted to 9.2 births per 1000 people.

Now we are seeing a downward trend in the number of children in a family. According to Goskomstat, most Russians nowadays consider it most acceptable to have one1 child. If earlier it was absolutely normal to have 3-4 children in a family, now large families have become much less common. But, as before, families of rural residents are characterized by a greater number of children than urban families.

According to the data for 1993, the mortality rate in Russia was 14.6 deaths per 1000 people. Compare in the US-9.0. The main causes of death today are diseases of the so-called endogenous plan, i.e. associated with disruption of the most important systems of the human body.

Therefore, an increase in the share of older people in the total population leads to an increase in the total number of deaths, and hence in the overall mortality rates. For example, in 1995, the percentage of deaths from diseases of the circulatory system increased by 4% compared to 1973 and amounted to 53.4% ​​of the total number of deaths. But in 1985, 15.5% died from neoplasms (cancer), then in 1995 this figure was already 17.5%. The increase in deaths from this kind of diseases is typical for older people, because the "peak" of mortality is shifted to this age group.

Abortion is one of the main reasons for low birth rates and negative natural population growth.

Such a huge number of abortions in our country is primarily associated with the economic and social situation in today's Russia.

The number of abortions per 1000 women of childbearing age is 83 in Russia. Let us compare: Germany - 5.1; Austria - 7.7; those. among the countries of Western Europe, we remain the undisputed leaders in the number of abortions, and our lead is simply amazing.

We all know about such a phenomenon as migration - population displacement. Large movements were observed during the war years. So, in 1941-1942 25 million people were evacuated from the areas of occupation. In general, the total volume of population movements to a new place of residence is quite large. So, due to migration from rural to urban areas, from 1970 to 1983, the rural population decreased by almost 10%. This trend continues actively today. In recent years, the process of intellectual emigration, or, as it is also called, the "brain drain", has acquired such proportions in Russia that it threatens the existence and development of entire areas of science, causing many negative social and economic consequences for Russian society. In the 90s, 110-120 thousand scientists, doctors, engineers, musicians emigrate from Russia every year. Among the ethnic emigration, the number of research workers who have left is estimated at 35 thousand people, which is about 10% of all research workers as of 1995. At the same time, 17% of scientific workers left the system of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Over the past 5 years, 42% of ethnic emigration went to Germany, 41% to Israel. Over the past years, about 100-120 thousand people have been traveling annually. There are, of course, much more people willing, but recipient countries (recipients) are holding back and stretching their influx over time. However, it should be borne in mind that the share of people with higher education among those traveling through this channel is almost 20 times higher than in Russia as a whole.

The emigration of scientists and highly qualified specialists results in another qualitative aspect: as a rule, the most talented and active people of working age emigrate. Russia in 1991-1995 lost at least 0.6 million specialists. There is, as it were, an export of intelligence, which is why the average level of intelligence in the country decreases.

Thus, modern migration trends are quite diverse, and their study is an important task of demography as a science.

Modernity makes complex requirements for information support, so demographic information must be versatile, diverse and reliable.

Currently, Russia uses 3 main sources of demographic information: population censuses, current registration (for example, in registry offices) of demographic phenomena and sample surveys.

Demographic projections are an important element of comprehensive long-term socio-economic planning. It is very difficult to find any area of ​​economics and social life where demographic projections are not used in long-term planning.

They allow not only to be limited to the definition of future characteristics of the population. By comparing the results obtained, it is possible to identify the degree of discrepancy between the desired and actual characteristics of demographic processes.

In conclusion, I would like to say that in the short term, the active process of reducing the intensity of fertility will continue, both in urban and in rural areas. Here, in all likelihood, there will be a transition from a large family to a medium-sized family, and later to a small family. According to our observations, if the natural population growth does not change, then in 2050. the population of Russia will be only 130 million people, i.e. will decrease by 17.3 million people. In these conditions, it is important to activate demographic policy in such a way as to prevent further transition of the population to families with few children.

The trends in morbidity and mortality will largely depend on the success of the development of science and the effectiveness of the functioning of health authorities, which is quite problematic in connection with the emigration of scientific specialists from Russia.

In the future, the territorial mobility of the population will grow, and the flow of migration from the regions of the North and East will increase. The process of emigration of scientists from Russia and a decline in the intellectual level of the population will also continue.

It should be said that all the negative processes and trends listed above are associated with the socio-political and economic situation of the country. In general, the demographic situation in the country is very diverse.

Bibliography

Andreev E; Gorzev B; "The sixth crisis" Journal "Friendship of peoples" 7 "96

Kvasha A. "What is demography" Publishing house "Moscow-thought" 1993

A. Tkachenko "Is Russia Emerging from the Demographic Crisis?" "Socio-political journal" 5 "96

Shelestov D; Minaev V. "Migration processes in Russia" Journal "Rodina" 10 "96

Weekly "Arguments and Facts" Selection of numbers for 1997.

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NOU VPO "Baltic Institute of Ecology, Politics and Law"

Faculty of Environmental Safety

on social ecology

The main problems of demography

Performed:

3rd year student

correspondence department

Sorokina E.I.

Checked:

Nikanorova M.N.

Saint Petersburg 2010

• Introduction
• 1. Demographic problems in the world
• 2. Demographic problems in Russia
• 2.4 Suicide
• 2.5 Migrations
• 2.6 Emigration
• 3. Ways to solve the demographic problem
• 3.1 Malthus hypothesis
• 3.2 Solutions
• Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

In the modern era, the rapid growth of population has an increasing influence both on the life of individual states and on international relations in general.

In the modern world, there are a huge number of problems, such as the prevention of nuclear war, overcoming the backwardness of developing countries, food and energy problems, the elimination of dangerous diseases, environmental pollution and a number of other problems, but, in my opinion, the demographic one occupies a special place among them. It determines the development of almost all global problems of mankind.

Due to the avalanche-like population growth on the planet, humanity has more and more new problems. The earth is several billion years old. If this period of time is compressed to one day, it turns out that humanity exists for no more than a second. Nevertheless, according to UN estimates, by 2015 there will be about 8 billion people living on the planet. All of them will need water, food, air, energy and a place in the sun. But the planet can no longer provide this to every person.

To provide people with everything they need, plants and factories are built, minerals are mined, forests are cut down. This causes enormous damage to nature, and it is difficult or impossible for a person to correct his mistakes. This can lead to a global environmental disaster. For example, over the past 50 years, more than half of the rainforests have been destroyed on Earth. As a result, hundreds of species of animals and plants have disappeared forever. Every second, a patch of rain forest the size of a football field is cut down for pasture and arable land, for timber, for the extraction of oil and ore. And rainforests are called "the lungs of the planet."

The importance and significance of the demographic problem is recognized by all states. In a finite space, population growth cannot be infinite. Stabilization of the world's population is one of the important conditions for the transition to sustainable ecological and economic development.

I chose this topic for my essay because I consider this problem to be the main problem on which other global problems and the further life of all mankind depend.

The purpose of the abstract is to consider the current demographic situation in the world as a global problem, a demographic problem in Russia, as well as the role of individual states and the world community in solving the demographic problem.

1 ... Demographic problems in the world

In 1988, the US National Geographic Society published a map of the world titled Earth in Danger. The number one danger on this map is population pressure. The fact is that since the middle of the 20th century there has been an unprecedented growth in the world's population. Homo sapiens - Homo sapiens as a species of living beings, the pinnacle of the creation of life forms on Earth - exists on the planet for about 100 thousand years, but only about 8 thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth. The number of earthlings increased very slowly, while they lived by hunting and gathering, led the way of life of nomads. But with the transition to sedentary agriculture, to new forms of production, especially industrial production, the number of people began to increase rapidly and by the middle of the 18th century it was about 800 million. Then came a period of increasing acceleration of population growth on Earth. Around 1820, the number of earthlings reached 1 billion. In 1927, this figure doubled. The third billion was recorded in 1959, the fourth after 15 years, in 1974, and just 13 years later, on July 11, 1987, the UN declared the “birthday of the 5 billionth person”. The sixth billion entered the planet in 2000.

If this growth continues for at least a couple more centuries, the entire earth's surface will be filled with residents with the density of the population of today's Moscow. And after six centuries, only 1 square meter will remain for each inhabitant of the planet. m. of land.

According to the forecasts of UN experts, by 2025 the world population will reach 8.3 billion people. At present, over 130 million people are born on the globe every year, 50 million die; thus, the population growth is approximately 80 million.

The current demographic situation is a global problem primarily because the rapid population growth is taking place in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Thus, the world population increased daily in 1992 by 254 thousand people. Less than 13 thousand of this number accounted for industrialized countries, the remaining 241 thousand - in developing countries. 60% of this number was in Asia, 20% in Africa and 10% in Latin America. At the same time, these countries, due to their economic, social and cultural backwardness, are least able to provide their population doubling every 20-30 years with food, as well as other material benefits, to give at least an elementary education to the younger generation and to provide work for the population of working age. In addition, the rapid growth of the population is accompanied by its own specific problems, one of which is the change in its age structure: the proportion of children under 15 has increased over the past three decades in most developing countries to 40-50% of their population. As a result, the so-called economic burden of the disabled population on the able-bodied population has grown significantly, which now in these countries is almost 1.5 times higher than the corresponding indicator in industrialized countries. And given the lower overall employment of the working-age population in developing countries and the huge relative agrarian overpopulation in most of them, the working-class population is actually experiencing an even more significant economic overload.

As the experience of a number of countries shows, a decrease in population growth rates depends on many factors. These factors include the provision of adequate housing for the entire population, full employment, free access to education and health care. The latter is impossible without the development of the national economy on the basis of industrialization and modernization of agriculture, without the development of enlightenment and education, and the solution of social issues. Studies conducted in recent years in a number of countries in Asia and Latin America show that where the level of economic and social development is lowest, where the majority of the population is illiterate, fertility is very high, although many of them have policies to regulate the birth rate, and on the contrary, its decline is evident with progressive economic transformations.

No less relevant is the direct connection between the growth of the world population and such global problems as the provision of mankind with natural resources and environmental pollution. The rapid growth of the rural population has already led in many of the developing countries to such "pressure" on natural resources (soil, vegetation, wildlife, fresh water, etc.), which in some areas has undermined their ability to naturally regenerate. Today, the consumption of various natural resources for industrial production in developing countries per capita is 10-20 times less than in developed countries. Nevertheless, assuming that over time these countries will become economically developed and reach the same level of this indicator as in our time in Western Europe, their demand for raw materials and energy in absolute terms turned out to be about 10 times more than now all countries of the European Community. If we take into account the growth rates of the population of developing countries, then their potential need for natural resources should have doubled by 2025, and accordingly, environmental pollution by industrial waste could significantly increase.

According to the UN, if the needs that correspond to the modern Western society are satisfied, there will be enough raw materials and energy for only 1 billion people, just for the population of the USA, Western Europe and Japan. Therefore, these countries began to be called the "golden billion". Together, they consume more than half of the energy, 70% of metals, create ѕ of the total mass of waste, of which: the United States consumes about 40% of the world's natural resources, emitting over 60% of all pollution. A significant proportion of waste remains in countries that produce raw materials for the "golden billion".

The rest of the Earth's population is behind the "golden billion". But if it managed to reach the level of the USA in the growth of mineral resources, then the known reserves of oil would be depleted in 7 years, natural gas - in 5 years, coal - in 18 years. There remains hope for new technologies, but all of them are capable of having an effect with a stable population, not doubling every few decades.

Since 1984, the global grain harvest has increased by 1% per year, and the population has increased by almost 2%. It is no longer possible to double food production. The number of hungry people in the world rose rapidly from 460 million in 1970 to 550 million in 1990. Now it is 650-660 million people. 35 thousand people die of hunger in the world every day. 12 million people per year. But even more are born: during the same year, 96 million are added, and the dead millions remain unnoticed.

The earth is inhabited not only by its inhabitants, but also by cars, motorcycles, airplanes. The world's 250 million cars require as much oxygen as the entire population of the Earth. And after 2 centuries, according to some scientists, oxygen will disappear from the atmosphere altogether. There is not even enough underground space. Entire cities are formed underground: sewers, conductive systems, subways, shelters.

Space is filling up very quickly, and the waste is multiplying, which makes the shortage of space even more threatening. The living space problem is not new. For the English nation, it was solved by the colonization of North America, for the Spanish - South, for the Russian - the development of Siberia and Central Asia. Germany failed to solve the problem of space, which was the cause of two world wars.

Over the past 50 years, there has been a movement of immigrants from labor-surplus countries of the Third World to those rich countries where there are few children, there are many elderly pensioners, and every year there are fewer workers. The gap had to be filled with foreign labor, and peoples with high fertility began to spread rapidly among the dwindling European peoples.

It is no longer possible to stop the flow of immigrants to Western Europe from the countries of South-Eastern Europe, North Africa and Turkey. A growing number of legal and illegal immigrants to the United States from Latin America. People who come to rich countries are ready to take on any job without requiring high wages. Therefore, almost all industrialized countries of the West, under pressure from their trade unions, have adopted legislative measures to restrict the entry of foreign workers. But the flow of immigrants continues to grow. Entry into the countries of market economy begins to be guarded by the most powerful police forces. At first, migrants are content with low-paid jobs, then they begin to demand economic and cultural equality. On the inhabitants of the country who have accepted newcomers, they begin

pour in accusations of racism. Colored riots are taking place in Western Europe.

People also leave their places for political, national or racial reasons. If in 1970 there were 2 million refugees in the world, then in 1992 there were 19 million of them. The entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan marked the beginning of a multimillion flow of refugees from the country. By the end of the 1980s, their number was estimated at 6-8 million people, more than half of them concentrated in Pakistan, a smaller part dispersed in Iran, Turkey and European countries. In the 1990s, the North Caucasus formed and also received numerous refugee flows.

New waves of refugees caused the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia and anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan. Most of these refugees are concentrated in special UN camps.

Population migration is currently associated mainly with economic and political reasons. "Economic" refugees migrate from poor countries to rich ones, from depressed areas to rapidly developing ones. The largest number of economic migrants is sent to the United States (illegal migration from Latin America), Western Europe, especially to Germany from Yugoslavia and Turkey, to Hong Kong from Vietnam, to the oil development of the Persian Gulf from South Asia and North Africa. Indigenous populations in host countries are very negative about the rise of immigrants and refugees, who tend to be in the lowest paid jobs, with the highest crime rates.

The problem of refugees (they, as a rule, cross the border of their state because of a justified fear of religious, racial and national persecution or political convictions) in the modern world has become one of the global problems of mankind. At the end of the 90s, according to UN experts, the total number of refugees in the world reached 15 million people, most of them (9/10) in developing countries. The growing number of refugees is accompanied by major interstate and intrastate conflicts.

In connection with the aggravation of the political situation in the neighboring countries of Russia, the problem of refugees has become aggravated in it. Their number had already reached 400 thousand by the end of 1992, and it is expected that the total number of Russians leaving the former republics of the former USSR will reach 700 thousand.

The emergence of "environmental refugees" is facilitated by life-threatening environmental pollution in areas of former residence (for example, refugees from the area adjacent to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant) and natural disasters - volcanic eruptions, floods, desertification.

2 ... Demographic problems in Russia

demography statistics migration

2.1 The history of the development of demography

Throughout the history of Russia's existence, the authorities have hidden the demographic truth from their own people. Before the “Khrushchev thaw”, demographic statistics labeled “Top secret” and only from the end of the fifties began to be calculated into documents marked “For official use”. From that time until the eighty-fifth year, information on the population, the number of births and deaths was provided only in special publications, but data on life expectancy, infant mortality and the number of abortions were never published anywhere. And it is understandable why: it is the life expectancy and mortality rate of the population, child fertility and infant mortality, as well as the number of abortions per 100 women, like nothing else, reflect the essence - the state of the state. Yes, it is demographic indicators, and not at all the levels of iron or steel smelting, not the military or scientific and technical potential, not the number of doctors per capita.

2.2 Demographic situation in modern Russia

In modern Russia, the legal successor of the USSR, the same demographic trends inevitably persist that distinguished its immediate historical predecessor. It could not be otherwise: the same people, the same traditions, the same attitude of the authorities to their people. Behind this conclusion are the dry, dispassionate calculations of the State Statistics Committee. It is a mirror that reflects us as we are.

The population of the former USSR at the time of its collapse was 290 million people, of which 149 million people lived in the RSFSR. In 1986, 2 million 486 thousand people were born in the RSFSR, 1 million 498 thousand people died. The natural population growth was 988 thousand people. Since mid-1991, for the first time in recent centuries, the death rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate. So, in 1994, 1 million 420 thousand Russians were born, and 2 million 300 thousand died (880 thousand more births.) As a percentage, these indicators were: fertility - 0.93%, mortality - 1.50% , the difference between them is minus 0.57%. This is no longer an increase, but a decline in the population.

Positive natural growth was preserved only in Dagestan, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, Tuva, Yakutia-Sakha, the Altai Republic, in the Tyumen region and in some northern autonomous regions.

Now Russia has begun to lose 1 million people annually. The situation is especially catastrophic in the so-called Russian territories and regions. In the Pskov region, out of 6434 births in 1995, there were 17347 deaths, the natural population decline was 10,913 people. In the Tula region, for 13282 births in 1995, 35248 died, respectively, a decrease - 21966 people.

The reasons for depopulation are often seen in the echo of the Second World War, when few children were born. Some politicians are trying to put these figures on a par with the highly developed countries of Europe, where a decrease in the birth rate leads to depopulation.

But taking into account the significant reduction in the life expectancy of Russians, these figures indicate rather not the beginning of depopulation, but about extinction.

The life expectancy of men in Russia, which in 1964-1985 corresponded to the average European standard of 65 years, with the beginning of the reforms dropped to 57 years, and in some regions of Central Russia even to 45 years. For women, the average life expectancy has decreased less - from 76 to 70 years. Now Russia is 15-20 years behind the average European standard of life expectancy.

In post-reform Russia, there was no turn towards an increase in the birth rate. The reasons are seen in the destruction of the family as a unit of society. Until recently, Russia was dominated by a multigenerational patriarchal family with traditional moral foundations. There was a sharp destruction of the natural traditional ties between people: communal, clan. The husband's low salary could no longer feed the family, mothers were forced to work on an equal basis with men. If back in 1950 there were 4.2 divorces per 100 marriages, then in 1994 there were 51 out of 100 marriages. By this indicator, Russia surpassed all the former Soviet republics, except Latvia, and surpassed almost all countries of the world, second only to the United States.

2.3 Abortion statistics and infant mortality

Russia became the first country among the countries in terms of the number of abortions: in 1993, 235 abortions were registered per 100 births. And what in the West: Germany - 5.1; Austria - 7.7; France - 13.8. This list can be continued, which will not change the essence, among the countries of Western Europe, we remain the undisputed leaders in the number of abortions, and our gap from the rest is simply amazing. It is noteworthy that if you move along the map of Europe from West to East, the number of abortions increases. In Hungary - 35.6; in Yugoslavia - 38.6; in Bulgaria - 67.2. According to unspoken data at the end of 1994. of the total number of registered pregnancies, only 32% ended in childbirth, the remaining 68% ended in abortions.

Most of the abortions are performed by women between the ages of 16 and 25. this social stratum is in the most unfavorable material situation. After all, a young single woman is simply not able to adequately provide for herself and her child.

According to the World Health Organization, more than 30 million women terminate their pregnancies every year. This is not only the deprivation of an unborn person's life, but also a huge harm to the woman herself: 20% of all abortions end in various complications, and the incidence of infertility is about 7%.

Abortion is one of the main reasons for low birth rates and negative natural population growth. Such a huge number of abortions in our country is primarily due to the economic situation in today's Russia. For several years now, our country has been in conditions of a socio-economic crisis, which is the reason for such a demographic phenomenon as abortion. Also, the percentage of abortions is influenced by the moral and moral health of people. After all, you must admit that over the past few years the moral framework has expanded greatly, and many moral principles in the eyes of today's youth look irreparably outdated and completely unacceptable.

The statistics of infant mortality in Russia is frightening. This figure is 18.6 today; those. 18-19 deaths under one year of age per 1000 live births. Let's compare: in the USA 5 newborns die out of 1000, in Canada and Japan - 7, in the most developed countries of Western Europe - from 6 to 8. In modern Russia, infant mortality is almost 3 times higher than in the civilized world.

2.4 Suicide

The population of Russia, albeit to a small extent, is influenced by the percentage of suicides.

We can say that from 1992 to 1995. the number of suicides increased markedly from 46,125 to 61,000, respectively. Then, in the period from 1995 to 1996, their number decreased slightly. The sharp increase in the number of suicides in the period since 1992. to 1995 due to the crisis development of the country's economy and a drop in production, as well as a sharp deterioration in the socio-economic state of Russia. Note that Russia is in the top ten countries with the highest suicide rate.

Also horrifying is the percentage of criminal offenses, in particular murders, in the number of which we are already approaching the United States, which are the clear leaders in this area. The killings affect not so much the demographic state of Russia as the social one.

2.5 Migrations

We all know about such a phenomenon as migration - population displacement.

Large-scale population movements were observed during the war years and in the first post-war years. So, in 1941-1942, 25 million people were evacuated from areas threatened by occupation.

In 1968-1969, 13.9 million people changed their permanent place of residence, and 72% of migrants were of working age. In recent years, the flows of population movement have been migration from the village to the city.

So, due to migration from rural areas to urban areas from 1970 to 1983. the number of the rural population decreased from 105.7 to 96, million people, or by 8.9%, and the share of the rural population in the total population of the country decreased from 44% to 35%. This trend continues actively today.

The total volume of population movements to a new place of residence is quite large.

The impact of migration on population development is often ambiguous. The growth of population mobility is an important factor in the development of society, contributes to an increase in the cultural and social level of people. Without migration, the development of the country's economy, the development of natural resources of Siberia and the Far East, etc., would have been impossible in the past.

However, excessive migration from the countryside leads to the creation of age-sex imbalances, to a shortage of young people, which complicates the development of agriculture and the fastest mastering of new technology.

A large outflow of young people leads to a decrease in the birth rate in the villages and an aging population. On the other hand, the arrival of large masses of young people from villages to large cities creates an additional burden on municipal services and complicates the solution of the housing problem.

The movement of the population to new areas of the country is often associated with the solution of other problems. It is important that people not only come to the areas of new development, but also stay there to work and live for a long time. After all, until a person accumulates experience in new conditions, it takes at least six months. In other words, there is a problem of “settling in” of new settlers. Otherwise, when a person, having worked for a short time in a new place, leaves back, society suffers significant economic and social losses.

Thus, modern migration trends are quite diverse, and their study is an important task of demography as a science.

2.6 Emigration

Over the years of reforms, the number of Russian citizens has decreased by 6 million, but the total population has not decreased by the same amount. Russia has been replenished with over 3 million people from neighboring countries. The migration process obscured the picture of the natural decline in the population of Russia. In 1997, the population of Russia amounted to 147 million people, in 2000 - 145 million.According to this indicator, it ranks sixth in the world after China (1 billion 209 million people), India (919 million people), the United States (216 million people). people), Indonesia (195 million people), Brazil (159 million people), but by 2050 Russia will be outnumbered by Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Zaire, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines.

The vastness and uninhabitedness of Russia attracts the attention of many countries. The negligence and mismanagement of Russian spaces is constantly pointed out.

The entire Russian Far East in 1989 was home to 8 million people. As a result of the outflow of residents in subsequent years, its number as of January 1, 1997 was 6.4 million. The population density in the Far East is only 1.2 people per 1 sq. km. One northeastern province of China, Heilongjiang, with its center in Harbin, two million inhabitants, is home to 33 million people. In the province of Girin located to the south (at the latitude of Vladivostok), the population density is 300 people per sq. km. The rapidly growing population of the three provinces of Northeast China is approaching 100 million. The population density here is 127 people per 1 sq. km, almost 30 times higher than the average in four constituent entities of the Russian Federation located along the border - the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Amur Region, the Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories.

In the summer of 1992, the Russian border was opened to Chinese labor. In particular, vacant agricultural lands began to be developed, agricultural colonies were created, some of them were employed in low-paid, hard work. Since the beginning of 1994, the Russian government has unilaterally ended the "open border" policy and introduced a visa regime for the entry of Chinese citizens. But their penetration into our territory continues. New Chinese cities have appeared along the Russian border, focused on the economic development of Primorye, Transbaikalia, and the Amur Region. Russia's poorly defended border with China is becoming less and less capable of containing the demographic pressure of its southern neighbor.

In the former Soviet republics, 25 million 300 thousand were cut off from Russia. Russians and over 11 mln. citizens of other nationalities who considered Russian their native language. From 65 to 75 million inhabitants of the post-Soviet space were caught by political collisions outside their national entities, and about 50 million more people were united in ethnically mixed families. Outbreaks of wars in Tajikistan, Abkhazia and Chechnya have already forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their places of permanent residence. The first 10 million people left and are in poverty. A million more are added every year. They go further from the "hot spots" to the Rostov Region, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, in the Moscow Region.

Not everyone succeeds in obtaining refugee or forced migrant status. By 1995, 670 thousand people were registered in Russia, of which 580 thousand (86%) came from neighboring countries.

The population of the states near the southern borders of Russia - Central Asia and Azerbaijan is growing like an avalanche (doubling of which occurs every 23-25 ​​years). In 1995, the annual natural population growth in Turkmenistan was 2.14%, in Tajikistan - 2.28%, in Uzbekistan - 2.34%, only from 1990 to 1995 the population of the latter increased from 20 million 515 thousand to 22 million 785 thousand people.

2.7 Intellectual emigration

In recent years, the process of intellectual emigration, or, as it is also called, "brain drain" has acquired such proportions in Russia that it threatens the existence and development of entire areas of Russian science, has caused many negative social and economic consequences for Russian society as a whole. In Russia, the most important condition for the landslide flow of "brain drain" was a sharp increase in the openness of the first Soviet and then the Russian state, the creation of a legislative basis for the transparency of borders. The collapse of the USSR, the formation of independent states on its territory, the borders between which are often indicated only on geographical maps, also made a significant "contribution". The factors of migration were, first of all, a deep socio-economic crisis in the country, a sharp decrease in the priority of science, aggravated by its structural features, which increased the importance of the channel of ethnic emigration. The reason for emigration is the lack of demand for scientific and intellectual potential, the impossibility for specific scientists to realize themselves in the country in the scientific, material and intellectual terms, to ensure creative growth. The reasons for the emigration of scientists and specialists of the highest and highly qualified from Russia are, in principle, known. The economic crisis resulted in a sharp decline in government funding for scientific research. Science has not yet found a place among state priorities, and the transition of scientific institutions to market principles of functioning is carried out for objective reasons with great difficulty. An important reason for intellectual emigration is the lack of infrastructure in Russian science, which has become a brake on the development of scientific research. Among the ethnic emigration, the number of research workers who have left is estimated at 35 thousand people, which is about 10% of all research workers as of 1995. At the same time, 17% of scientific workers left the system of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, the matter is not only in the quantitative ratio. Many enterprising and talented people have left science, as a result of which the share of "ballast" (although it is inevitable and necessary) has increased significantly. Over the past 5 years, 42% of ethnic emigration went to Germany, 41% to Israel. There is every reason to believe that this flow is not the largest in scale: over the past years, about 100-120 thousand people leave each year. Of course, there are many who wish, but the recipient (recipient) countries restrain and stretch their influx in time, while making their selection. However, it should be borne in mind that the share of people with higher education among those traveling through this channel is almost 20 times higher than in Russia as a whole. It is expected that by 2000 about 1.5 million scientists and specialists will leave the country. In recent years, the process of business emigration from Russia has been developing more and more. Young talented businessmen, having achieved high prosperity in Russia, earning significant sums, emigrate, buy real estate and do business in developed countries. The total annual export of foreign currency from the country exceeds $ 20 billion. This money cannot be returned to Russia. The emigration of scientists and highly qualified specialists results in another qualitative aspect: as a rule, very talented and active people of the most working age emigrate. There is, as it were, the export of intelligence, from which the average level of intelligence in the exporting country decreases. In principle, this can be viewed as a threat to the country's intellectual security. It is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that simultaneously with the export of intellectual potential in Russia there is an import of a significant number of less qualified workers (according to some data, their number exceeds 1 million people). There is, as it were, an intellectual drainage of Russia, which is thus constantly decreasing its intellectual potential. It is advisable to develop measures to protect this potential. It should be borne in mind that the “brain drain” has negative socio-economic consequences for the national economy and makes it extremely difficult to implement the basic concepts of Russia's technological and economic security. On the whole, it can be stated that the problem of "brain drain", the preservation of national, intellectual property is one of the most important, facing not only Russian science, but also Russian society as a whole. And the future of Russia largely depends on how it is resolved.

2.8 The problem of the Russian north

Inhabitants of the Russian North turned out to be outcasts at the beginning of the reforms. In the rapidly growing cities of the North of Western Siberia, for every thousand inhabitants there were 600 people who arrived and left during the year. Most of those who lived permanently also planned to move. Over the years of reforms, more than a million people left the sparsely populated Russian North. World history does not know such a rapid outflow of the population from the newly developed territories. The youngest, most qualified and largely adapted to northern conditions people are leaving. Their northern savings are devalued, they themselves are, in fact, turned into refugees, but they expect to start living anew in other regions of Russia, where they, nevertheless, are not expected. The settlements of the Russian North are emptying. Of the 1,400 high-latitude settlements in Russia, 390 are to be completely liquidated. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development is providing a soft loan with a loan for the project in the amount of US $ 80 million for the implementation of the overpopulation program for northerners. The eviction of northerners becomes one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Regional Policy, created in 1998.

Russia should not be allowed to depopulate its vast areas - the main value of the 21st century.

None of the countries in the world has preserved such vast areas of unpopulated, and therefore not yet destroyed, natural environment as in Russia. The global role of Russia lies in the fact that it is a kind of biosphere reserve of the globe.

3 . Ways to solve the demographic problem

3.1 Malthus hypothesis

The first attempt to assess population dynamics and answer the question of whether the Earth can feed everyone living on it is associated with the name of Thomas Malthus, who saw destructive environmental consequences in the rapid population growth.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 - 1834) is one of the most famous scientists of his time, who promoted the idea that rapid population growth is the natural and main reason for the poverty of the working people. Studying the works of philosophers and economists of previous eras, he came across the idea that people reproduce faster than their means of subsistence grow, and that if population growth is not restrained, then every 25-30 years the population will double. Developing these ideas, he came to the seemingly obvious conclusion that the fertility of the poor is the main reason for their miserable position in society. He anonymously published his views in 1798 in his work "Experience on the law of population in connection with the future improvement of society." In total, 6 editions of his book were published during his lifetime. In 1805 he was promoted to professor of modern history and political economy at the College of the East India Company.

T. Malthus argued that the population is growing exponentially, while the food resources needed to feed this population are in arithmetic. Thus, sooner or later, no matter how slowly the population grows, its growth line will intersect with the straight food resources - an arithmetic progression (point X on the graph). When the population reaches this point, only wars, poverty, disease and vices can slow down its growth (it should be noted that he never called for these methods of dealing with an increasing population, as interpreters of his theory quite often write about). In other editions of his book, Malthus suggested other ways to "slow down" population growth: celibacy, widowhood, late marriages. Overpopulation in the concept of Malthus is not only a misfortune for mankind, but a certain good that makes numerous and naturally lazy workers because of competition to work qualitatively for low wages.

Since the publication of the book, Malthus's theory has become the subject of heated debate - some criticized the author for the inhumanity of the idea, others became his adherents, seeing in it a law valid for any era. Followers of Malthus in the 20th century - Malthusians and neo-Malthusians explain the poverty of the population not by the level of development of productive forces, but by the "natural law of nature", and the socio-economic backwardness of developing countries not by the economic situation in the country and the world, but exclusively by excessive population growth. In fact, the observed tendency that the increase in the means of subsistence causes an immediate increase in the birth rate, at some stage turns into the exact opposite - an increase in the standard of living leads to a decrease in the birth rate and not only to the stabilization of the population, but even to its absolute decrease.

3.2 Solutions

The importance and significance of the global demographic problem today is essentially recognized by all states that have realized that the rapid growth of the world population, most of which is in developing countries, whose backward economy and undeveloped social sphere are not able to turn this growth for the benefit of their development; that the spread of dangerous diseases such as AIDS, the powerful foci of which again occur in the poorest countries, are leading to an increase in mortality; that uncontrolled migration and urbanization are turning from positive to negative; that the link between population development and nature is more fragile than previously thought; that the growth of armed conflicts and the arms race, especially in developing countries, lead to enormous material costs, significantly impairing opportunities for economic and social development and thus for solving population problems.

It was realized that the solution of all these problems is possible only with the joint efforts of the entire world community. The creation in 1969 within the framework of the United Nations of the United Nations Special Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) and the holding of three World Population Conferences under its auspices contributed significantly. The Fund already at the beginning of its activity developed the UN Population Program, which covered more than 100 countries and includes about 1400 projects. Over the past years, only the financial assistance of the Fund for the implementation of national programs in the field of population exceeded $ 100 million a year, for international programs in 1998, $ 56.3 million was allocated.

A special role belongs to the Fund for the organization and holding of the World Population Conferences, held in 1974 in Bucharest, in 1984 in Mexico City and in 1994 in Cairo, at which acute population problems were considered, the most important program documents in this area were adopted.

An important difference between these conferences from other scientific and practical forums was that they were held at a high government level, in contrast to previous conferences on population problems, in which experts spoke only on their own behalf.

One of these basic documents was the World Population Action Plan, adopted in Bucharest in 1997 for 20 years.

The plan emphasized that the basis for a real solution to population problems is, above all, socio-economic transformations. In 1984, Mexico City hosted the Second International Population Conference, which was attended by the governments of 147 countries against the 136 countries that took part in the 1974 conference. It summed up the results of the 10-year Global Population Action Plan and adopted the Declaration on Population and Development, which reaffirmed the importance of the principles and goals of the Action Plan adopted 10 years ago and made recommendations for its further implementation.

In 1994, the third World Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo, which was already attended by 179 states. The final document of the conference was adopted - the 20-year Program of Action in the field of population and development, consisting of 16 chapters dealing with almost all pressing problems in the field of population.

The program emphasized that more and more states are realizing the need to expand international cooperation in population issues. The program examines the linkages between population, sustainable economic growth and sustainable development.

The Program calls for the development of policies and laws to better support the family, which is the fundamental unit of society, and to promote its stability and diversity. The issues of fertility, mortality and population growth rates are considered. Urbanization and migration issues. In particular, attention is drawn to the problems of the “outflow of the population” from rural areas and appropriate solutions are proposed to these and some other problems associated with resettlement to cities, with forced displacements of the population caused by environmental degradation and the growth of armed conflicts.

Chapter XI of the Program on Population, Development and Education argues that “in the world 75% of women are illiterate” and that the global community has a special responsibility to ensure that “all children receive a better education and that they complete primary education. school ". It draws attention to the fact that there is a close and complex relationship between education, age at marriage, fertility and mortality.

The Program examines the importance of formulating and implementing government action programs that address population and development issues.

Many states began to regulate population growth. The government of the most populous country, the PRC, set out to limit the birth rate by prohibiting families from having more than one child (with the exception of some autonomous regions of Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia). It was not easy, because China loves children, but the government was relentless: families in which a second child appeared, were fined, or even moved to remote autonomous regions. As a result, the annual population growth decreased from 2.8 to 1.0% and became below the world average.

Largely populated India also decided to follow the Chinese path. The slogan was put forward here: “One family - two children”. But the Indians were unable to overcome the centuries-old tradition of a large family. Therefore, the population of India is rapidly approaching 1 billion, and by 2030 it will overtake China and come out on top in number in the world.

Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan pursued the policy of state birth control, but in the countries of Islam, where the prestige of the head of the family is determined by the number of his sons, it was even more doomed to failure than in India. And countries such as Burma, Bhutan, Malaysia, Iraq, Libya and Singapore have decided to maintain the existing high population growth and even encourage it. The demographic policy was least effective in African countries. If in 1990 their population was 9% of the world, then by 2020 it will reach 20%.

The fastest growing populations are Mozambique (4.6% per year) and Afghanistan (5.2% per year). There are 8-10 children for every healthy woman.

Some developed countries (France, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Hungary) are pursuing policies aimed at increasing fertility: families with two or more children are allocated good benefits, various benefits are provided.

In Russia, no official statements were made about the goals of the demographic policy. The government of the Russian Federation has only outlined measures to study the prospects of demographic development, to solve urgent problems of the population. A policy of social protection of families with children is being pursued, and a system of family benefits is in place.

Conclusion

Thus, the potential danger of the modern demographic situation lies not simply and not so much in the fact that in the next two decades the world's population will increase by almost 1.5 times, but in the fact that a new billion hungry people will appear, a billion people who cannot find employment for their work. in cities, one and a half billion disadvantaged people living below the “poverty line”. Such a situation would be fraught with profound economic, social and political upheavals both within individual countries and in the international arena.

In Russia, the demographic situation is the opposite of the world one. The population is declining. Now Russia has begun to lose 1 million people annually. These figures speak, given the significant reduction in life expectancy, about the extinction of Russians. The way out is seen in raising the standard of living of Russians and turning the state to the demographic problem.

The exceptional complexity of solving population problems in the modern world is that due to the inertia of demographic processes, the longer the solution of these problems is postponed, the greater the scale they acquire.

I believe that humanity still has a chance to cope with this huge, life-threatening problem, but only if all people and each person individually fight it. For this, it is necessary to overcome inertia in the person himself.

Bibliography

1. Global problems of our time. - M .: Thought, 1981.

Demographic indicators of the countries of the world, 2000 // Geography of the PS. - 2001. - No. 33. - with. 11-22.

2. Maksakovsky V.P. Demographic crisis in the modern world. // Geography of PS. - 2001. - No. 23. - with. 13-14.

3. Oskolkova O. Russia on the demographic map of the world // MEMO. - 2000. - No. 2. - with. 62-70.

4. Modern demography. / Ed. AND I. Kvashi, V.A. Iontseva. - M .: Publishing house of Moscow. University, 1995.

5. Khotuntsev Yu.L. Ecology and ecological safety, 2004.- Moscow, pp. 100-109.

6. Encyclopedia "Science" / Ed. Susan McIver. - Ed. Dorling Kindersley, 1997.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

Ural Federal University

named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin "

Higher School of Economics and Management

Department of Economics

Department of International Economics

Modern problems of the demographic development of the Russian Federation.

Course work

2nd year student

S.V. Khalturina

Supervisor:

academic degree,

academic title,

Shorokhova I.S.

Ekaterinburg

Introduction.

Chapter 1. Demographic structure and processes. Factors influencing the demographic situation.

1.1 The concept of demography. Population as an object of demography.

2 The structure of demography and demographic processes.

1.3 Factors influencing demographic indicators.

Chapter 2. The main problems of demography in the Russian Federation.

1Dynamics of population life expectancy.

2 Fertility deficit and mortality surplus.

Population migration.

Chapter 3. Ways to get out of the "demographic hole".

Conclusion.

List of used literature.

Introduction

The main wealth of the country is its population, and the life of the state is impossible without it. But recently, the demographic processes that are taking place in our country have a pronounced negative character. Low fertility and high mortality have led to such a result as depopulation, which manifested itself in a natural loss of the population in most regions and in the country as a whole. In principle, Russia is faced with a global crisis that is terrifying in its scale and impending consequences. Based on the forecasts of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, the population of Russia in 2015 will be 130 million people, thereby decreasing by 8.5% compared to 2006. There is a fear that by 2050 the population of Russia will reach 100 million. In the context of an uncompromising struggle for natural resources (about 42% of which are concentrated in Russia), the long-term existence of a huge territory with a rapidly decreasing population is not possible. At the moment, the demographic situation in the Russian Federation has become one of the most pressing socio-economic problems in society. It became clear that the demographic crisis would not be resolved on its own, even if considerable efforts were made to overcome the crisis, the result would not be achieved immediately, but in years or decades. This indicates the relevance of the topic of the work that I have chosen.

The purpose of this course work is to analyze the demographic situation in Russia, to find the main problems and ways to solve them. To achieve this goal, it is required to solve the following tasks: to give the concept of demography; to characterize the structure and processes of demography; consider the factors affecting the demographic situation; to analyze the main problems of the current situation of demography in Russia; highlight the main problems of the demographic development of Russia; consider the prospects and ways of solving the exit from the "demographic hole".

1. Demographic structure and processes. Factors influencing the demographic situation

1Demography concept. Population as an object of demography

Demography is a science<#"justify">Population is usually represented by the totality of people who live in any territory. This understanding, which distinguishes two main features - quantitative and territorial, is quite enough for most sciences for which the population is the object of research. But in demography, such a rationale is not sufficient. It reflects only the superficial shell of the definition of the population as a concept of demographic science, what begins to study it, which is the starting point of demographic analysis. It is important to know what the population size is, in what trend and how fast this population is changing, the difference in the number between men and women, how the population is distributed between the main age groups. And this knowledge is part of demographic statistics, or population statistics. And first of all, a person who is engaged in demography will be interested in what factor is why the given number and the given composition of the population are changing. In other words, the demographer is interested in the population from the point of view of its reproduction, that social process that seems to be its own and special subject of demography. The scientist believes that the main and essential feature is not a quantitative and not a territorial feature, but exclusively the population's ability to reproduce, to constantly renew itself through a change of generations, that is, through fertility and mortality. Thus, it can be argued that the population for the demographer is a self-reproducing aggregate of people.

1.2 Demographic structure and demographic processes

demographic population migration fertility

The structure of the population usually represents the division of people according to one or another, chosen for various reasons, typological groups. This is one of the more general features of the population and social structure in their analysis. The composition of the population can be represented by two or more sequences of a trait, and each of them can be divided into subgroups based on another trait or traits (for example, the division of people by age is considered separately, depending on gender) and represented by the number of people in the selected groups , the shares of these groups in the entire population or the number of people in one group per 100 people in another group. But demography is not interested in all structures that can be selected according to various criteria, but only in those that are directly related to population reproduction. Such structures are called demographic. Such structures are: gender - the division of the population into men and women; age - the division of the population by age groups; marital - division of the population according to marital status; family - the division of people into families of different sizes, designs, compositions and types. It is these structures, on the one hand, that have a direct impact on reproduction as a whole, as well as on the processes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality that make up it, and on the other hand, they themselves directly and naturally depend on these processes. The latter, in turn, are the processes of fertility, mortality, as well as marriage and divorce rates, being integral parts of population reproduction, and are called demographic processes. All other conceivable population structures are non-demographic. This does not mean that demography is not interested in them. But the interest in them is qualitatively different from that in demographic structures. Sex, age, marital and family structures are directly included in the subject of demography, while all the rest act only as exogenous factors of demographic processes, exerting one or another, but always indirect impact on them. They act indirectly through demographic structures. This does not diminish their role in demographic analysis, but only defines it more precisely. Non-demographic structures include: ethnic structure, which distributes people on the basis of ethnicity; a religious structure that categorizes people by religion; an economic structure that categorizes people according to their livelihoods, occupations and industries; an educational structure that assigns residents to groups according to the level of education; a social structure that distributes the population into social groups.

1.3Factors influencing demographic indicators

There are several main factors influencing the demographic situation:

) Factor of state policy. It is undoubtedly clear that the policy pursued by the state affects the economic situation in the country, and the level of public protection, and legislative support for families and marriage. The direction of the demographic policy depends on the goal pursued by this or that country. For example, in China and Japan, where a large number of people live in a relatively small area, government policy is aimed at reducing productivity. The main motto of these countries is “One family - one child”. The goals of the demographic development of Russia are to stabilize the population and form the prerequisites for demographic growth.

) The economic factor. This factor affects all demographic structures and processes. The share of difficult living conditions, deterioration of the material situation makes up a total decrease in the birth rate by about 30%. A drop in the level of well-being and, as a result, a deterioration in nutrition, an increase in the price of medicines and medical services, directly leads to an increase in mortality. The economic factor also affects internal and external migration, because the settlement of the population is more dependent on the factors of wages and the likelihood of employment.

) The factor of social protection. All segments of the population should receive social protection from the state, if this does not happen, then the scale of external migration increases, as a result of which there is a decrease in the population. The state needs to provide the population with pensions, child benefits, subsidies, benefits. This is not only material assistance, a kind of guardianship by the state creates in people a sense of security and confidence in the future.

) The factor of wars. War is one of the main reasons for the unnatural population decline. During wars, a large number of people die, even more are deprived of their health. Two out of four demographic crises in Russian history have been associated with wars of a different nature. The first crisis (1914 - 1920) took place during the First World War, as well as the Civil War. The third crisis (1941 - 1945) is associated with the Great Patriotic War, where our country lost, according to various estimates, from 16 to 20 million people.

) National and religious factors. Today, the national situation in Russia has become aggravated. In connection with numerous terrorist acts, the population has become suspicious of representatives of other nationalities. Every day there are acts of revenge on the part of the Russian population against Azerbaijanis, Armenians, Tajiks, etc. A tendency has emerged to create one-religious and one-ethnic families. Such events also lead to a decrease in the level of migration from many states.

) The factor of state and legislative protection of the institution of family and marriage. Today, one of the main components of the demographic crisis is the abandonment of motherhood, expressed in abortion, abandonment of children, renunciation of parenting as such, as well as the tendency to create small families. The loss among the population of the values ​​of family and marriage, expressed in the so-called civil and guest marriages, numerous divorces, illegitimate birth of children, etc., has a strong impact. This happens because the state devotes little attention to family and marriage issues. It is necessary to revive the institution of family and marriage at the state level, full support of mothers and fathers, spouses, children, etc.

) The factor of epidemics. It is unrealistic to overcome the negative influence of this factor without a correct state policy in the field of health care, decent material support of medical institutions, and careful monitoring of the health of the population. After all, epidemics can significantly reduce the population in a relatively short time, they are incredibly dangerous.

2. The main problems of demography in the Russian Federation

1 Dynamics of life expectancy of the population

The problem of demography in Russia has been discussed for a very long time. Since the mid-90s, the population has declined in the country. In 2010, the process of population decline stopped. According to Rosstat, in 2012 the population of Russia increased for the first time and in the first half of 2013 amounted to 143.3 million people. (See Figure 1).

Figure 1. Population in Russia, million hours (Source - Rosstat website)

Scientists dealing with aging have established that a person's life should last about one hundred and fifty years. But even in developed countries, which are prosperous in terms of social security and health care systems, the average life expectancy of a person is no more than eighty years. And in the so-called developing countries, to which Russia belongs, the average life expectancy is even lower. This is due to several reasons, such as:

1)the ecological situation - 15% of the territory of Russia (in terms of area more than Western and Central Europe, taken together), where the bulk of the population and production is concentrated, is in an unsatisfactory ecological state, environmental safety is not guaranteed here. At the same time, the specific indicators of negative impacts on the environment per capita and per unit of gross domestic product in Russia are among the highest in the world. Exceeding the permissible concentrations of harmful substances is noted in the atmospheric air of 185 cities and industrial centers with a population of over 61 million people (40% of the total population of the country). Cases of five-fold excess of maximum permissible concentrations of air pollutants were noted in more than 120 cities. The main sources of air pollution are still enterprises of ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, chemistry and petrochemistry, construction industry, energy, pulp and paper industry, as well as motor vehicles.

2)criminogenic situation - Every state, as you know, is characterized not only by political-ideological, socio-economic, environmental, humanitarian and other indicators, but also by the state of public safety and law and order. How do the citizens of Russia and visiting foreigners live, what kind of criminality do they find themselves in? The dynamics of registered reports of crimes and the proportion of grave and especially grave crimes are clearly shown in the tables (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Dynamics of crimes in Russia, thous.

Despite the positive trends in the fight against crime in recent years, it continues to be difficult and requires state and public control, so that every citizen of Russia and foreigners feel in a state of secured security, regardless of the place and time of their stay. To achieve this goal, consistent and effective activity of all law enforcement agencies is required, which in turn also requires qualitative improvement.

)the level of development and quality of social security and health care systems - In Russia, a significant part of innovations are imitation, and in terms of the level and innovative development, our country continues to lag behind not only developed, but also developing countries, gaining ground in the status of the world periphery. If in the USSR the share of enterprises engaged in innovative activities was about 50%, today in Russia no more than 8.9% are engaged in technological innovations. In Eastern Europe, this figure is at the level of 25-30%, in Western Europe - more than 40-50%, follows from the research data of the HSE and Rosstat. The share of innovative products, works and services new to the market in Russia in 2011 amounted to 0.8%, while in Poland - 4.5%, in Germany - 3.3%, Portugal - 8.6%.

2 Fertility deficit and mortality surplus

This problem of demography is very urgent, since, since 1992, the death rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate. As for the birth rate, in general, for the period from 1991 to 1998. repeated births decreased 1.9 times. At present, Russia has taken a place in this indicator among the countries of the world with the lowest birth rate.

On a national scale, as noted above, the birth rate has a clearly expressed tendency to decrease, which in specific historical conditions and taking into account the strategic tasks facing Russia, cannot be regarded as anything other than a negative phenomenon. One of the negative phenomena of the emerging demographic situation is the constantly increasing number of childbirths outside of a registered marriage. In 1998, unmarried women gave birth to 346 thousand children (27%) of the total number of births. The tendency of an increase in the number of children born out of a registered marriage has been noted since the mid-1980s, but then the number of children born out of wedlock did not exceed 12-13% of the total number of births.

In the past few years, due to birth out of wedlock, about 300 thousand single-parent families have emerged annually, children in which from the first birthday are disadvantaged not only in material terms, but are also flawed in their psychological well-being. Given the current trend, one can expect a significant increase in the number of families that are initially incomplete with all the ensuing economic and social consequences.

As for mortality, the life expectancy of Russian men in 1998 was 61.3 years, which is 13-15 years shorter than that of the male population of developed countries, for women - 72.9 years (shorter by 5-8 years) ... If the current age and gender mortality rate is maintained in the future, 40% of today's youths who have reached the age of 16 will not live to be 60 years old.

But despite all these unfavorable figures in recent years, for the first time in the history of new Russia, the birth rate in the country exceeded the death rate. In 2013, the natural population growth was more than 20 thousand people. Experts are wondering how the indicators were achieved, for which the state has been fighting for a long time. See the exact figures for the dynamics of fertility and mortality for 2013 on the graph (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Dynamics of fertility and mortality in 2013, thousand people (Source: Rosstat)

2.3 Population migration

At the moment, migration is one of the most important population problems and is viewed as a complex social process that affects many aspects of socio-economic life.

In particular, in Russia, the problem that aggravates the demographic crisis in the country is the immigration challenge to national identity. At the moment, the stabilization of the population in Russia has been achieved due to the migration balance. The first few years after the collapse of the USSR were characterized by two flows of migration: the Russian population from the former Soviet republics to Russia and the Russian population from Russia to Europe, the United States and Israel. There was an inflow and outflow of highly qualified personnel (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. International migration of the population, in the period 1990-2012, people (Source: Rosstat)

The increasing complexity of the forms and manifestations of migration processes has led to a significant deterioration in the statistics of migration. External migrations are currently only amenable to statistics to a small extent. The underestimation of arrivals to Russia is very significant. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the inflow of migrants to Russia for permanent residence is now less than the peak in 1994, when it amounted to more than 1 million people. The regions of the massive influx of migrants from the CIS and Baltic countries in the mid - late 1990s were the territories of the lowland Ciscaucasia (especially the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories), the regions of Chernozem Russia (primarily Belgorod) and the Volga region, the south of the Urals (Orenburg region) and Western Siberia (Altai Territory). The so-called were sent to the same regions. the "western drift" of intra-Russian migrations, the power of which was at its maximum in the mid-1990s.

Thus, the migration inflow of the population was distributed unevenly throughout the country: the host was the central and southwestern regions of the country. The regions of massive outflow were the "north". Chukotka Autonomous Okrug lost 67% of the population, Magadan Region. - 54%, the contribution of migration to this loss is enormous. The losses of the regions of Eastern Siberia and the European North are palpable. The losses of the "north" in internal migrations in the mid-late 1990s were partially (by 9-25% in different years) compensated by migrants from the CIS and Baltic countries. Since 1999, these regions have a negative migration balance in exchange with these countries.

The positive overall migration balance of the regions in recent years has been formed almost exclusively due to the positive internal migration balance. The statistically recorded contribution of external migration in the 2000s throughout Russia became so insignificant that it most often cannot compensate for the decrease in migration in internal migration.

In the intra-Russian migration exchange, the most attractive capitals and near-capital regions, as well as some economically developed regions of the North-West (Kaliningrad region), Center (Yaroslavl, Belgorod regions), Volga region (Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara regions), Urals (Sverdlovsk region .), Western Siberia (Kemerovo region). The further east a region is on the map of the country, the less attractive it is for internal migrants. In general, the flow of internal migrants is steadily oriented from the north and east to the center and southwest and is dominated by the so-called "western drift".

The attraction of the Center for internal migrants has grown over time. The Far East and almost all of Eastern Siberia are consistently unattractive.

During the period 1989-2010, the Central Federal District received almost 1.5 million people through population exchange with other federal districts, and the Far East gave about 800 thousand people to other districts. The data of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census will make it possible to say about an even larger scale of population movements between large parts of the country.

Despite the fact that in general the number of regions attractive to migrants is small, Moscow, with its huge labor market, far surpasses them all in terms of "attractiveness" and implements almost 60% of the migration increase in the Central District in internal migrations and a significant part of external growth. Moreover, in connection with the reduction in the inflow of the population from the CIS, the migration landscape characteristic of the 1980s, when Moscow pulled together the population from the entire immediate vicinity, has been restored in the Center. The influence of St. Petersburg is much less, the zone of its migration claims is the north and north-west of the European part of the country.

Thus, it should be noted that there is a significant differentiation of Russian regions in terms of the migration situation that is developing in them. About a dozen regions are distinguished by significant positive migration growth in both internal and external migration. The overwhelming majority of regions have either zero or negative migration balance. The socio-economic polarization of regions, which affects migration extremely strongly, is manifested in the fact that only regions headed by large cities with large labor markets become truly attractive; from the rest, the population leaves with different activity.

Chapter 3. Ways to get out of the "demographic hole"

The current age structure of the population, with a high proportion of the population of working age and a still high but declining proportion of women of active reproductive age, creates additional opportunities for economic and demographic development. It is in the next 2-3 years that additional measures aimed at increasing the birth rate and supporting families with children, creating conditions for combining the professional responsibilities of parents with raising children can give the maximum effect. In the future, more and more efforts will have to be made every year to achieve changes. It will be too late in 10 years. Full compensation for the current population decline will require an increase in the total fertility rate by almost 2 times, which is unrealistic.

The potential for complementary measures is especially important for second and subsequent births. Women estimate the likelihood of having the second child in the next three years 1.4 times higher, and the third one 1.66 times higher if there are any additional measures to help families. It should also be borne in mind that those who grew up in two- and three-child families are now at an active reproductive age, which greatly increases the likelihood of having a second, third and subsequent child. If the best conditions for the birth and upbringing of children are not created for the younger generation, then in a few decades the indigenous population of Russia may be replaced by a migration influx from neighboring states. The share of "indigenous" residents of the country will continue to decline steadily. This scenario will lead to the fact that by the middle of this century, a significant part of the population of Russia will be migrants and their descendants. The historic chance of a demographic revival will be missed.

To overcome the demographic hole, an updated state strategy for demographic and family policy is needed. Family policy should be focused on reducing the obstacles for families to have the desired number of children, the largest of which, according to many years of research, are material and housing difficulties, uncertainty about the future. It is necessary to achieve a radical reduction in the level of family problems - economic and social. At the federal level, a system of social guarantees and economic opportunities for the birth and upbringing of several children in a family should be formed. A large family should become the most important social value - a desired social norm. At the same time, one should not forget about the need to support young families, stimulate the earlier appearance of the first child in the family and reduce the time periods between childbirth.

The state, together with employers, should provide conditions for the younger generation to have the opportunity to simultaneously solve two problems - the birth of a larger number of children and professional employment, to combine parenting responsibilities and career, which is important, first of all, for women. In this regard, the development of the system of services for the care of children under 3 years old should be singled out as a separate state task. In the field of health care, the main goals should be a radical reduction in the mortality rate of the population of working age, especially male, the preservation of the health of children and youth, active longevity of the older generation. In migration policy, the main efforts should be focused on the formation of a migration inflow, ensuring the growth of human potential, primarily at the expense of compatriots living abroad. To mitigate and overcome the consequences of the "demographic hole", an optimistic scenario of demographic development should be worked out, which will make it possible in the future to ensure the growth of the population - up to 154-156 million people. by 2050 (See Figure 5).

Figure 5. The population of the Russian Federation in accordance with the scenarios of demographic development for the period up to 2100, million people (

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

TAGANROG INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMY

Department of Economics and Finance

TOPIC: CONTEMPORARY DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF RUSSIA

I've done the work:

1st year student

Group BZV 38

Faculty of Economics

Correspondence department

Speciality:

Accounting,

Analysis and audit.

T.V. Sobchenko

Checked:

Shilchenko T.N.

Introduction

Demography is the main national project of Russia

Ways to get out of the "demographic hole"

National Program for Demographic Development of Russia

"Every kid is worth its weight in gold"

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

“Demographic problems of Russia” - solving such problems is one of the main tasks of Russia today. The demographic disadvantage of our country is very relevant today.

The purpose of the work is to consider the main demographic problems and possible ways out of them.

In general, demography is the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical and social conditioning of this process. Throughout the history of the existence of Russia, the authorities hid the demographic truth from their own people. Until 1985, information on the size of the population, the number of births and deaths was given only in special publications, but data on life expectancy, infant mortality and the number of abortions were never published anywhere. And it is understandable why: after all, these data, like nothing else, reflect the essence - the state of the state.

Today, the most important and one of the most painful issues for our people - the development of the demographic situation - has been submitted for consideration by the People's Government.

It is absolutely indisputable that the state of demography in our country is in the deepest systemic crisis. All recent trends indicate that it is growing and getting worse. The state of affairs is so serious that lately there have been more and more statements that Russia has already passed the so-called line of no return, and it will not be possible to restore the population.

And although we Russians categorically disagree with this point of view, one cannot fail to notice that the state of demography poses a direct threat to the existence of our country. If the current trends are not reversed, there will be simply no one to live in the country and produce its national wealth. And this is not a question of the distant future, but of the coming decades.

1. Demography is the main national project of Russia

The current crisis is the fourth in the country since the beginning of the twentieth century. However, it should be understood that its causes are qualitatively different from those that led to the previous three. After all, the two most severe demographic failures in Russia occurred during the periods of the First and Second World Wars - that is, during the colossal and irreparable loss of life on the battlefield.

Today our country is not at war with anyone. And the main reason for the current demographic crisis is that over the past 15 years the country has pursued a socioeconomic and political course that is absolutely alien to the country's national and state interests and the interests of the Russian people.

And this means that it is possible to solve the problems of demography only by solving in a complex the main socio-economic problems of the country. In other words, by creating the most favorable conditions for the life of people in Russia.

How are the current demographic problems in Russia expressed?

First of all, this is a low birth rate, which for a long time has not provided even simple reproduction of the population. Moreover, over the past 15 years, it has decreased by almost 30%.

Secondly, it is the extremely high mortality rate of Russians. Its level is 1.6 times higher than that of developed countries. Male mortality is 4 times higher than female mortality. Infant mortality remains extremely high in our country - it is more than 1.5 times higher than in Europe.

Thirdly, it is the low life expectancy in our country. In terms of this indicator, Russia has dropped from 35th place in the world, which it occupied in 1975, to 142nd place at present. This is the level of Iraq and Honduras, below only the countries of Africa and Oceania.

Taken together, this leads to an overall decline in the population in Russia. Over the past 15 years, we have lost about 5 million people, or 3.2% of the population. At present, the population of the country is annually declining by almost 700 thousand people.

And even the official forecasts in this matter are by no means consoling - by 2050 the population of Russia may be reduced to 77 million people, which is 2 times less than the current level.

Other pressing demographic problems include the following:

A noticeable decrease in the share of children and youth in the structure of the population;

An increase in the share of citizens of retirement age;

More than a twofold increase in the number of people with disabilities over the past 13 years;

The growing share of migrants, including illegal ones, whose relations with the local population often develop as conflict and at times openly hostile.

Meanwhile, according to various estimates, Russia is currently home to between 1.5 and 6 million illegal migrants, whose situation is often simply unbearable. Their unresolved problems pose a direct and real threat to social and political stability in our country.

As a result, the consequences of the demographic crisis for our country look very alarming.

First. Russia owns 13% of the world's territory, but our share in the world's population may decrease to 1% by 2050.

But even at the beginning of the twentieth century, the inhabitants of the Russian Empire accounted for 8% of the world population.

Second. Three quarters of the territory of our country are already virtually unpopulated areas today.

There are 13 thousand settlements in the country without residents and almost the same number with less than 10 people.

This situation is especially dangerous for the border regions in the east of the country, where the population density in the adjacent regions of neighboring states is 100 or more times higher than the density of the Russian population. This means that we run the risk of simply losing these territories.

Unfortunately, this list goes on and on.

However, I would like to dwell in more detail on the steps and actions that need to be taken urgently to immediately correct the demographic situation in the country.

First of all, there is no single method for solving the demographic problem in Russia. It is possible to ensure the growth of the nation's size only in a complex manner, raising both the economy and the social sphere, as well as qualitatively developing the infrastructure in the country.

In other words, no one can order Russian women to give birth to ten times more healthy children, and older citizens - to live at least 100 years.

But the authorities can, must and must create the necessary conditions for this.

What are they?

2. Ways to get out of the "demographic hole"

First. Since the deterioration in health is one of the main reasons for the supermortality rate of Russians of all ages, a qualitative modernization of the entire healthcare system in the country is needed.

And here it is necessary to start by stopping the ongoing reform of medicine and changing its direction by 180 degrees. The reform, which has been under way since 1997, has, in fact, failed to produce a positive result. On the contrary, during this time, many indicators have only worsened. For example, the overall incidence increased by 16%.

Second. This is an immediate solution to the housing problem throughout the country. It should be noted that the lack of adequate housing directly inhibits the birth rate, especially among young people.

An effective mortgage system should be created in the country, accessible to everyone who wants to buy their own home. Its terms should be understandable to people and beneficial to them.

Third. This is a change in the system of income distribution for all citizens of Russia. The main task is to significantly increase the income of every Russian family. In fact, the country needs a new social policy. After all, poverty and misery remain the worst enemies of the bulk of Russian families. And if a mother has nothing to feed one child, will she think about having a second, let alone a third?

The country has all the necessary resources and capabilities to solve this problem.

After all, it is obvious that the same scanty benefits for the birth of a child and caring for him practically in no way compensate for the real costs of the parents. An example of small Iceland, where the government pays absolutely fantastic for us 25 thousand euros for the first child, 50 for the second and 75 for the third. As a result, this country firmly holds the leadership in terms of fertility in Europe.

Fourth. This is a change in the course of state economic policy, which impedes the normal development of the nation.

Fifth. It is necessary to revive the traditions of a healthy lifestyle in the country. Indeed, today an absolutely opposite situation is observed everywhere. Drunkenness and alcoholism have become widespread phenomena, especially in the countryside. In Russia, two-thirds of men and more than a third of women smoke. The number of children who smoke is threateningly growing, in the senior grades of school more than 20% of adolescents regularly smoke. According to various sources, more than 4 million people in Russia have tried drugs, and 2.5 million use them constantly, of which 76% are young people under 30.

Sixth. It is necessary to suppress crime, restore the moral foundations of society and, first of all, the value of human life.

Indeed, today we have developed an almost universal irresponsibility of both the state and the citizens themselves for their lives and the lives of those who are near.

Thus, we commit suicides more than even premeditated murders. The suicide rate in our country is more than twice the world average.

Real chaos on the roads continues in the country. Every year, the number of citizens killed in road accidents is equal to the population of a small town.

The death rate and injury rate of people at work and in everyday life remain extremely high.

The inability of the state to suppress terrorism and organized crime, the imposition of a cult of force and violence through the mass media has an extremely negative impact on the moral and psychological state of society.

Naturally, the presented list of measures and actions to overcome the demographic crisis is not absolutely exhaustive.

However, if the presented six main positions are implemented, then this will be enough for a radical change in the development of the demographic situation in our country: from the deepest crisis to the normalization of the situation and the gradual revival of the nation. And if we start to act immediately, then by 2050 the population of Russia, according to scientists, could grow to 160 million people.

It seems that this indicator should be laid down as a minimum goal in our main national project of Russia - a steady increase in the number of its healthy, prosperous and happy citizens!

3. National Program for Demographic Development of Russia

I would like to start this point with the words of the former President of the Russian Federation V.V. in the message to the FSRF.

« ... And now about the main thing. … About family. And about the most acute problem of modern Russia - about demography. The problems of the country's economic and social development are closely related to a simple question: for whom are we doing all this? ... We have repeatedly raised this topic, but by and large we have done little. To solve this problem, you need the following. The first is a decrease in mortality. The second is an effective migration policy. And the third is an increase in the birth rate. ... But no migration will solve our demographic problems if we do not create the proper conditions and incentives for the growth of the birth rate here, in our country, in our own country. We will not accept effective programs to support motherhood, childhood, family support ... This mechanism should be launched from January 1, 2007.»

The goal of the National Program is to ensure the stabilization of the population of the Russian Federation by 2015. at the level of at least 140-142 million people. with the provision of further preconditions for population growth.

Priority tasks of the National Program: creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, providing support for families with children; improving public health and reducing mortality; attraction of Russian and Russian-speaking residents of the republics of the former USSR to immigration to the Russian Federation; improving the balance of settlement of the population of the Russian Federation by region; limiting illegal immigration, especially in those regions of the Russian Federation where it can pose a threat to social stability, sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security of the country; formation of a system for ensuring state demographic and family policy.

The estimated period for the implementation of the National Program is 2006-2015. Stage I - 2006-2010 (formation of an appropriate organizational and legal framework, implementation of the proposed measures of the National Program in full); Stage II - 2011-2015 (implementation of the proposed measures, taking into account the results of the implementation of stage I).

Principles for the implementation of state demographic and family policy in accordance with the National Program.

State policy in accordance with this National Program is implemented on the basis of the following principles:

ensuring the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in the independent determination of the ways of the country's demographic development;

the priority of measures aimed at the permanent population of the Russian Federation over measures to use external migration in solving demographic problems;

differentiation in approaches and implementation of demographic and family policy, emphasis on creating incentives for the birth of a second and subsequent children in the family in the system of measures to stimulate the birth rate;

the priority of attracting Russian and Russian-speaking residents of the republics of the former USSR - representatives of peoples historically living in the territory of the Russian Federation, to immigration to the Russian Federation in the complex of measures of the immigration policy of the Russian Federation;

ensuring the balance of the rights of immigrants lawfully arriving in the Russian Federation and settling on its territory, with the rights and legitimate interests of citizens of the Russian Federation, taking into account the geopolitical, demographic and socio-economic interests of the Russian Federation in terms of resettlement and employment of legal migrants, arrangement and use of social infrastructure ;

a differentiated approach to the reception of various categories of migrants in accordance with the strategy and guidelines of the socio-economic and demographic policy of the Russian Federation, in order to ensure the migration flows necessary for the state.

Implementation principles

The phased implementation of this National Program, providing for the development of a plan of appropriate measures for the first stage (2006-2010).

Decrease in the second stage (2011-2015) of the share of the federal budget in the funding structure of the National Program to 50%, with an increase in the share of expenditures from the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities, as well as extra-budgetary funds (with the main load (up to 90 %) financial support of the National Program for the federal budget of the Russian Federation at stage I).

Territorial differentiation of the implementation of the state demographic and family policy in order to cover with the indicated measures, first of all, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation with the most unfavorable demographic situation.

Constant feedback, quarterly, starting from 2008, adjustment of control actions within the framework of the National Program on the basis of information obtained as a result of operational monitoring of the effectiveness of the implementation of the National Program.

Consolidation and coordination of efforts of state bodies, as well as local self-government bodies and the public, aimed at the implementation of this National Program.

Conditions without which it is impossible to fully achieve the set goals, but which go beyond the scope of this National Program.

This National Program does not duplicate or replace existing National Projects and Federal Target Programs in the field of health care, education and housing affordability, the current activities of state and municipal institutions of health care, education and social protection, but only strengthens certain areas in the context of achieving this goal.

Therefore, the conditions without which it is impossible to fully achieve the goals set, but which go beyond the scope of this National Program, are:

a general increase in the income and well-being of the population, including an increase in the income of low-paid professional groups, and the implementation of measures to combat poverty;

improving the health care system, strengthening its preventive focus, implementing measures aimed at preventing socially caused diseases;

improving the education system;

improving the ecological situation, reducing the risks of the impact of adverse environmental factors on humans.

General expected results laid down in the National Program.

The general expected results included in the National Program are:

cessation of decline, stabilization by 2015 of the population of the Russian Federation at a level not lower than 140-142 million people, creation of conditions for its sustainable growth from 2030;

increasing the life expectancy of the population by preserving and improving the health and quality of life of the population, reducing premature, especially preventable mortality, primarily in infancy, among adolescents and people of working age; increasing the duration of a healthy (active) life by reducing morbidity, injury and disability, reducing the level of consumption of alcohol, drugs, tobacco smoking;

strengthening the social institution of the family, reviving and preserving domestic spiritual and moral traditions of family relations, family education, forming the population's orientation towards expanded demographic reproduction, improving the demographic indicators of the resident population;

creation of prerequisites for increasing the birth rate by improving the reproductive health of the population and through a gradual transition from a predominantly small to a medium-sized type of reproductive behavior of families.

4. "Every kid is worth its weight in gold"

Let's give an example of the Moscow region (Rossiyskaya Gazeta article "Every baby is worth its weight in gold" dated April 25, 2008) Even on the eve of the Year of the Family (2008), the Moscow region announced that it expects a significant increase in children. And it was right. According to the results of the first quarter, the birth rate increased by 10 percent compared to the first three months of last year (according to Natalia Kolesnik, deputy head of the Main Directorate of the Registry Office of the region). In total, more than 16.5 thousand children were born in the region.

The process, as they say, has begun. At the same time, in the Moscow region, they began to marry more often: in the first quarter, the number of marriages increased by 779 compared to the same period last year. Mendelssohn's March was played 9656 times.

Increasing the birth rate is one of the main concerns of the Moscow Region authorities. The budget for the year provides over 4 billion rubles to support children and families - almost three times more than in the past. The government even went to fund the in vitro fertilization (IVF) program from the budget. The procedure is expensive, not accessible to everyone. According to the regional health minister Vladimir Semyonov, 45 million budget rubles were allocated for "test-tube babies" last year, and 110 million this year. Thanks to IVF, more than 200 babies were born.

Much attention is paid to orphans. Transferring them to families for upbringing is the only way to overcome such a phenomenon as social orphanhood. In total, almost 5,200 adopted children live in families in the Moscow region. This year, 249 children have found new parents. By the way, in the region benefits have increased not only for adoptive parents (from 6 to 10 thousand rubles), but also for adoptive parents (up to 9,200 rubles). And from July 1, an adopted child will receive a one-time allowance in the amount of 30 thousand rubles instead of 20. In addition, it is envisaged to expand the categories of children eligible for benefits. Now the money will be allocated and adopted from other regions of Russia.

In 2008, almost 15.8 million rubles are provided for the payment of a lump-sum benefit in the regional budget, and more than 434 million rubles for the monthly allowance. This good cause found support even at individual enterprises. For example, since January 2008, Mosoblgaz has decided to pay its employees, who have adopted or taken on the upbringing of someone else's child, 20 thousand rubles a month, up to his 18th birthday (with indexation from the company's profits).

But so far, despite all the measures, the population of the region, like the country as a whole, is aging. Most residents are over 50 years old. But girls who will become mothers in these 10-15 years are only 10 percent. Elena Bulycheva from the Center for Family Planning of MONIIAG (Regional Research Institute of Obstetrics and Gynecology) cited such data in a report. According to her, more than 60 percent of adolescent girls want only one child, more than 30 percent - two and only 7 percent - three. Therefore, the task of doctors is to preserve their health, and the concern of the authorities is to create such conditions for life that every girl wants to give birth to three babies. Then Russian cities will get out of the "demographic hole".

Conclusion

The National Projects in the field of healthcare, construction of affordable housing, and improvement of the quality of life, adopted for implementation since 2006, will contribute to creating conditions for alleviating the demographic crisis, but the measures laid down in them are insufficiently adequate to the acuteness of the problem. The catastrophic situation can still be changed, provided that the state adopts and implements a complex of emergency anti-crisis measures in the field of demographic and family policy aimed at achieving population stabilization by 2015. and creating conditions for its subsequent growth. Urgent adoption and implementation of the proposed set of measures will reduce the scale of the annual natural population decline by 2012-2015. up to 270-275 thousand people (instead of 800 thousand people in 2005). Measures to stimulate and optimize migration will be able to increase the level of compensation for this loss and create preconditions for stabilizing the population of Russia. The further development of Russia as a viable society and state is impossible without the development and implementation of a strategic and state plan to overcome the demographic crisis based on a comprehensive solution to the issues of family and fertility, health and life expectancy, migration and resettlement.

To conclude this topic, I would like to note that the problem of low fertility cannot be solved without changing the attitude of the whole society towards the family and its values.

Bibliography

Baghdasaryan V. Is demography manageable? // Power.-2006.-№ 10.

Baranov A. Socio-economic problems of depopulation and population aging. // Question Statistics.-2000.-№ 7.

Beglyarova I. Demographic situation-derivative of the state of society. // Ros. Federation today. -2007.-No. 11.

http : // www . Rodgaz . ru / . Demographic Problems were not spared and ... 16-65 years old; v Of Russia- 16-54 (inclusive) ... "Thought", 1989. - 478s. Sluka A.E. Demographic Problems Western Europe // Modern Europe. - 2000, No. 4. - P.93- ...

MAIN DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF RUSSIA. WAYS OF SOLUTION.

Demographic problem of the Russian Federation - a global problem of mankind associated with population decline, with a fall in the birth rate below the level of simple reproduction of the population and below the death rate.

The demographic crisis in the Russian Federation is a deep violation of the reproduction of the population of the Russian Federation, threatening its existence.Emergence of a crisis - early 1990s.

Causes:

demoeconomic - decrease in fertility and childbirth;

socio-economic - change in society, radical economic reforms, deterioration of the living environment, decline in living standards;

socio-medical - a sharp decline in the quality of life and health of the population, mass drug addiction and alcoholism, an increase in mortality;

socio-ethical - a sharp deformation of the social structure of society, degradation of its institutions and public morality, massive psychological depression, crisis of the institution of the family.

1. Life expectancy

Average life expectancy in Russia: 57.7 years and ♀71.2 years.

Compare : USA, Canada, France, Germany and other developed countries: ♂73-74 years and ♀79-80 years; Japan: 75.9 and ♀81.6.

The gap between life expectancy ♂ and in the Russian Federation - 13 years - is an extraordinary indicator.

2. Decrease in fertility

2003 r. - the birth rate fell by 15% in comparison with 2002 and reached 9.0 births per 1,000 people.

3. High mortality

2003 r. - mortality: 16.6 deaths per 1,000 people.Compare : USA - 9.0.

4. Child mortality

The indicator is 18.6; those. 18-19 deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births.Compare : USA - 5, Canada, Japan - 7, the most developed countries of Western Europe - 6-8. In the Russian Federation, infant mortality is 3 times higher than in the world.

5. An increase in the number of abortions

The number of abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age in the Russian Federation is 83.Compare : Germany - 5.1; Austria - 7.7; France - 13.8; Hungary - 35.6; Yugoslavia - 38.6; Bulgaria - 67.2.

Examples of solving the demographic problem in Russia:

2001 year – The concept of demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015 - the deplorable demographic situation in the Russian Federation is stated, the goals and objectives of the demographic policy are formulated.

2007 year - newThe concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 .

A set of measures aimed at solving the demographic problem:

an increase in the average life expectancy of the population;

raising health care + improving medical care for women suffering from infertility;

strengthening the institution of the family, reviving traditional family values;

family planning organization;

revision of the sex education program for schoolchildren;

support for large families (orders "Mother-Heroine", "Mother's Glory");

financial support for the family (payments at the birth of a child, child support for low-income families, the law on “maternity capital” (387,640 rubles 30 kopecks in 2012));

providing housing for young families with 2 or more children on preferential terms;

a balanced migration policy aimed at attracting the Russian-speaking population.