America attacks Korea. Will there be a nuclear war if the US attacks North Korea?
The clouds over North Korea began to thicken again since the end of 2016. Pyongyang has frequently launched missiles into the Sea of Japan, increased its stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium five-fold, and has demonstrated success in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
"Reckless Actions"
US President Donald Trump has toughened his stance on North Korea. In June 2016, he said that he was ready to sit down at the negotiating table with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The future owner of the White House shocked the public with a statement that he could invite the leader of North Korea to visit.
- Aircraft carrier Carl Vinson
- Reuters
On April 2, a few days before meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Florida, Trump stressed that Washington could "deal with Pyongyang" without the participation and consent of Beijing. As is known, China categorically opposes a military solution to the North Korean problem and the strengthening of the US military presence in East Asia.
On April 8, NBC reported that the US National Security Council presented Trump with a set of measures that would help deal with Pyongyang if Beijing and the sanctions regime did not force Kim Jong-un to abandon the development of the nuclear missile program.
The head of the White House was offered to return the atomic bombs removed 25 years ago to South Korea, kill the North Korean leader and his entourage who have access to nuclear weapons, or throw special forces into the territory of the DPRK, which will carry out sabotage at nuclear infrastructure facilities.
On April 9, Reuters and CNN, citing sources, reported that an aircraft carrier group sent to the coast of South Korea had received an order to prepare to strike at nuclear facilities and military bases of the northerners.
The head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, Viktor Ozerov, does not rule out that the White House will ultimately dare to launch a preventive strike against the DPRK. However, the senator believes that an attempt to solve the problem by military means will lead to "further rash actions on the part of Pyongyang."
- Reuters
Ozerov recalled Trump’s recent decision to strike Syria: “US forces attacked the air base of the Syrian Armed Forces under the pretext of a chemical attack in Idlib, despite the fact that Syria signed a chemical weapons destruction treaty and complied with its terms, and North Korea did not sign a non-proliferation treaty nuclear weapons. This could provoke Trump to attack the DPRK.”
Forces are not equal
The United States has colossal military capabilities in East Asia, so that at any moment they can strike a crushing blow against North Korea. The backbone of American power is the Seventh Fleet, a land and air force stationed in Japan and South Korea.
The total number of military personnel (including sailors and marines) is more than 70 thousand people. Without the deployment of additional forces, the United States is capable of delivering massive air and sea strikes, as well as conducting amphibious operations.
Within a few hours, the United States can bomb North Korea with nuclear weapons, raising long-range aircraft from airfields (B-52 Stratofortress, Northrop B-2 Spirit, Rockwell B-1 Lancer). In addition, a nuclear strike against the DPRK can be delivered by ships and submarines equipped with ICBMs.
- B-52 Stratofortress
- globallookpress.com
- Sra Erin Babis/ZUMAPRESS.com
Tokyo and Seoul will certainly provide political support for Washington's military operation against Pyongyang. Moreover, Japan can pull three aircraft carrier groups to the shores, and South Korea can build on the success of the bombing by invading land.
A powerful military alliance has long been formed against North Korea. In the ranking of the Global Firepower portal, the United States ranks first, Japan is 7th, South Korea is 11th, and the DPRK is only 25th.
Pyongyang cannot win a one-on-one war even with its southern neighbor, but this does not mean that the communist regime is not capable of resisting or will not start acting ahead of the curve, having managed to inflict irreparable damage to opponents before defeating its national forces.
Destructive power
The army of the northerners is equipped with Soviet-Chinese equipment and bizarre examples of their own production. The most vulnerable units of the DPRK Armed Forces are aviation and tank formations, where the proportion of obsolete equipment is highest. Nor is the North Korean navy impressive.
However, Pyongyang has succeeded in creating artillery systems and missile systems of short and medium range. According to Global Firepower, the northerners have 4,300 field artillery units (versus 5,374 southerners), 2,225 self-propelled guns (versus 1990), and 2,400 multiple launch rocket systems (versus 214).
Colossal destructive power lies in the missile forces of the DPRK. The communists have hundreds of launchers with missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. North Korean missiles can reach any point on the territory of the southern neighbor and hit enemy ships in the near sea zone, that is, up to 500 miles (up to 900 km).
Formidable weapons are the Rodong-1 missiles (range up to 1.3 thousand km), Hwasong-6 (up to 500 km), Hwasong-5 (up to 300 km) and KN-02 (up to 70 km) . The disadvantages of these missiles include low accuracy and poor protection against air defense / missile defense systems. It is likely that the United States and South Korea will be able to shoot down most of the missiles fired by the northerners, but some of them will still reach the target.
In the most vulnerable position is Seoul, which is only 24 km from the border with the DPRK. A metropolis of 10 million can be destroyed by a single massive Northern artillery barrage. Saving the South Korean capital is the number one task in a hypothetical military conflict. The risk of mass casualties among the population of Seoul and other South Korean cities is too great.
- KCNA/Reuters
Also, North Korea's ill-wishers are stopped by the unpredictability of the communist government, the fanatical devotion of the people and the army to the leader of the state. At the same time, the elimination of Kim Jong-un will most likely not save Seoul, Tokyo and Washington from a headache.
Firstly, the image of the deceased young leader will instantly replenish the pantheon of northerners, becoming a symbol of the uncompromising struggle against imperialism. Second, the DPRK's political regime is unlikely to collapse. North Korea is dominated by a totalitarian regime, which tends to generate and glorify new leaders with relative ease.
Imminent disaster
Dmitry Kornev, the founder of the Military Russia portal, believes that North Korea is ready to offer worthy resistance in the event of an attack and mobilize a huge army.
“If we talk about the scenario of a large-scale conflict, then after an attack by the United States or its allies, an invasion of South Korea can be expected from Pyongyang, which is likely to be successful. The northerners have superiority in the means of destruction and the number of military personnel. According to various estimates, the size of the DPRK army ranges from 690 thousand to 1.2 million people, ”the expert explained to RT.
“However, luck will quickly turn away from Pyongyang. Nobody will stand up for him. China and Russia are likely to take a neutral stance. But the southerners will be most actively assisted by the United States. The capabilities of the northerners will be completely undermined by the extremely weak economy of the DPRK, which even in peacetime cannot provide the population with food, ”Kornev argues.
In his opinion, Pyongyang expects an imminent defeat, but the United States will have to bring in ground forces. “It will be similar to the air-ground operation that we have seen in Afghanistan and Iraq. There will be no easy walk. It will take about six months to destroy the North Korean troops, ”Kornev suggested.
“Surely the northerners will put up fierce resistance, they will carry out sabotage actions, fight for every centimeter of land. These are highly motivated soldiers. They will compensate for the lack of material support with mass heroism, ”Kornev noted.
- KCNA/Reuters
The expert is deeply convinced that Pyongyang is well aware of the catastrophic outcome of the war and is not interested in escalating tensions. Kornev explains the constant saber-rattling on the part of the communist regime by the need to satisfy internal demands, as well as counting on financial and material assistance in exchange for negotiations.
“I don’t think that the great powers, including the United States, are seriously ready for an armed clash on the Korean peninsula. The risk is too great instead of a limited operation to overthrow the regime to get the bloodiest clash since the Second World War, ”concluded Kornev.
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China will intervene if the US attacks North Korea
If North Korea strikes the US first and the Americans retaliate, China will remain neutral. If the US hits North Korea first and tries to change Kim Jong Un's regime, China will intervene. This is reported by the Chinese newspaper The Global Times.
The newspaper points out that Beijing is not in a position to influence Washington and Pyongyang and force them to abandon their militaristic rhetoric. Pyongyang, by its actions, wants to force the Americans to negotiate with it; The United States, in turn, is trying to subjugate North Korea to its influence.
After Pyongyang announced its intention to test new medium-range missiles capable of hitting targets 30-40 km from the American island of Guam, the situation came close to a military scenario.
In Beijing, they cautiously express themselves in the sense that both countries, having no experience of long-term brinkmanship, may unwittingly provoke an armed conflict.
Pyongyang is no less interested than Beijing in a peaceful dialogue with the United States. At the same time, the North Koreans have learned from the sad example of Libya, which abandoned nuclear weapons and fell victim to the Western coalition. For the DPRK, renunciation of nuclear weapons is tantamount to suicide. The US will immediately take advantage of Pyongyang's weakness and unleash a war. Along with testing missile weapons, the DPRK several times came up with peace initiatives, including a proposal to continue negotiations with Washington. However, Washington needs war, not dialogue. Pyongyang's peace initiatives went unheeded.
Earlier, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said that his country would support the United States in the event of an attack by the DPRK. Turnbull specified that Australia was within range of North Korean missiles.
Australia, the United States and New Zealand are part of the ANZUS bloc, whose main mission is to prevent the rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region.
Washington and Canberra want to turn the Korean Peninsula into a springboard for putting pressure on China and Russia. A war with Pyongyang would not only deprive Beijing of one of the main trading partners on the peninsula (China and North Korea actively trade with each other), but would also allow the United States and its allies to settle at the very borders of China and Russia.
The United States can take such a step without taking into account the opinion of its South Korean ally, who, like Beijing, is categorically against a military solution to the North Korean issue. It turns out that no one needs a war in Korea, except for Washington and its ANZUS allies.
US secret weapon against Korea: the background of Pyongyang's nuclear tests is revealed
A new round of escalation around North Korea has once again confirmed a regularity, imperceptible to the world press, but extremely important in the US strategy. Each time, according to Klagenwand TV, the escalation occurs in the same season - from April to September, when the harvest takes place in Southeast Asia. The fact that the stable chronology of exacerbations is not accidental is confirmed by more than half a century of military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.
The current conflict also arose in April, when the US first became suspicious of nuclear missile tests in North Korea. On April 16, the South Korean military reported that Pyongyang attempted to "test the type of an unknown missile" in South Hamgyong province. Seoul identified the aborted launch as a ballistic missile test. This was also confirmed by the foreign policy adviser to the US government, defining it as a medium-range missile.
However, Reuters, citing US government circles, questioned these estimates, saying that it was not even a long-range missile, but something more powerful. Despite the lack of evidence of nuclear tests, the information stuffing caused a strong reaction. The South Korean government called a meeting of the National Security Council and warned that the missile test threatened peace. And the United States switched to the tactics of open threats.
Recall that then US Vice President Mike Pence said that the "era of strategic deterrence" of North Korea is over and Washington is considering "military options" to stop the danger, including a preemptive strike against Pyongyang. After the re-launch of a ballistic missile in late April, the White House carried out its threats by sending an aircraft carrier escorted by several warships to the shores of the peninsula.
This is the external outline of the growing military escalation in relations between the US and North Korea. However, it became clear only after China intervened in the situation. True, the Western media are silent about this fact, preferring to present Pyongyang as an "unpredictable regime." Nevertheless, even before the start of April launches, Beijing warned the United States against intervening on the Korean Peninsula, foreseeing a negative development of events.
The PRC's proposal was to exchange for a "mutual cessation" of the escalation. Beijing has acted as a guarantor that North Korea will stop its nuclear and missile development. However, in exchange for this, the United States had to abandon joint exercises with South Korea. It's not just that Beijing sees them as a starting point for an attack on North Korea.
The main reason for China's concern is that the American military maneuvers each time begin when most of the population of North Korea is busy sowing in the rice fields. Therefore, US military exercises directly threaten the food security of the entire region. In the 1990s, they were one of the causes of severe famine in this country.
Such sophisticated food blackmail forced Pyongyang to rely on the development of nuclear weapons in order to minimize the involvement of human resources for the country's defense. After all, every time American aircraft carriers cruise along the coast of the Korean Peninsula during the planting and harvest season. If the US were to commit to halting its annual maneuvers, it would allow North Korea to reduce its conventional defense resources without nuclear insurance.
Instead of slandering North Korea at the slightest suspicion of nuclear testing, the Western media would do well to expose threats to US military policy itself. After all, the Koreans themselves remember very well the extraordinary cruelty with which the American armed forces broke into their country more than half a century ago.
North Korea: Exposing a colossal hoax
Christopher Black is an international criminal law attorney based in Toronto.
He is known for a number of high-profile war crimes cases and recently published Under the Clouds. He writes essays on international law, politics and world events, especially for the online magazine New Eastern Outlook.
In 2003, I was lucky, along with other American lawyers from the National Guild of Lawyers, to visit North Korea, that is, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, to see the country, the socialist system and its people with my own eyes. Upon our return, we released a report titled "Exposing the Colossal Fraud."
At one of our first dinners in Pyongyang, our hospitable host, lawyer Lee Myung Kook, said on behalf of the government and very passionately that the DPRK nuclear deterrence force is necessary in light of US actions in the world and the threat against the DPRK.
He argued, and this was repeated to me at a high-level meeting with officials later, that if the Americans signed a peace treaty and a non-aggression pact with the DPRK, this would delegitimize the American occupation and lead to the unification of Korea. Therefore, there will be no need for atomic weapons.
The vote at the UN for a "police operation" in 1950 was illegal because the USSR was not present at the vote in the Security Council. The quorum required by the Security Council according to the rules is the presence of all delegations, or the session cannot be held. The Americans used the boycott of the USSR Security Council for their own purposes. The Russian boycott was in support of the position of the People's Republic of China that the seat in the Security Council should belong to them, and not to the Kuomintang government. The Americans refused to do so, so Russia refused to sit on the Security Council until there is a legitimate Chinese government there.
The Americans used this opportunity to carry out such a putsch at the UN in order to seize its mechanism for their own interests, agreeing with Britain, France and the Kuomintang to support their actions in Korea by voting in the absence of Russia. The Allies did what was required of them and voted for war against Korea, but the vote was invalid and the "police operation" was not peacekeeping, and is not legal under Part 7 of the UN Charter, since chapter 51 requires that all countries have the right to self-defense against armed attack, and that's what happened to North Korea and that's what they responded to.
But the Americans never cared too much about the rule of law, and at that time, too, because the plan from the very beginning was to conquer and occupy North Korea as a step towards invading Manchuria and Siberia, and were not going to let the law get in the way.
Many in the West have no idea of the extent of the destruction that the Americans and their allies have unleashed on Korea, that Pyongyang has been bombed to dust, that civilians fleeing the slaughter have been shot down by American planes. The New York Times claimed at the time that 17,000,000 pounds of napalm had been used in Korea in the first twenty months of the war alone.
The United States dropped more bombs by tonnage on Korea than on Japan in World War II.
The American military poisoned and killed not only the communists, but also their families. At Sinchon, we saw evidence that American soldiers drove 500 civilians into a ditch, doused them with gasoline and set them on fire. We were in a bomb shelter whose walls were still black from the burnt bodies of at least 900 civilians, including women and children, who had tried to hide there during the American raid. American soldiers poured gasoline into the vents and burned them alive. This is the reality of the American occupation of Korea. This is what they are still afraid of and do not want a repetition of this ever, and who can reproach them for this?
But even with such a history, Koreans are ready to open their hearts to former enemies. Major Kim Myung-hwan, who was the senior negotiator in Panmunjeong for the Korean Demilitarized Zone, told us that he dreamed of being a writer, poet, journalist, but, he said sadly, he and his 5 brothers are guarding the Korean Demilitarized Zone because of what happened. with his family. He longs for his family that died in Sinchon - his grandfather was tortured, his grandmother was bayoneted and left for dead. He said, “You see, we have to do this. We must defend ourselves. We are not against the American people. We are against American hostile policy and its attempts to control the whole world and bring misfortune to people.
The view of our delegation is that by maintaining instability in Asia, the US can maintain a massive military presence in the region, isolate China from South and North Korea and Japan, and use it as a weapon against China and Russia. In Japan, the movement to withdraw US military bases from Okinawa continues, and Korean military operations and military maneuvers remain key to US attempts to dominate the region.
The question is not whether the DPRK has nuclear weapons, which they have a legal right to, but whether the United States, which has the ability to deploy nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and deploys a THADD system there that threatens the security of Russia and China, is ready to cooperate. with the DPRK for a peace treaty.
We have seen that the North Koreans want peace and that they do not need nuclear weapons per se if peace is to be made. But the American stance remains bold, aggressive and threatening.
In the era of the US doctrine of "regime change", "preventive war" and US efforts to create miniature atomic bombs, as well as their violation and manipulation of international law, it is not surprising that the DPRK is putting the atomic card on the table. What choice do the Koreans have if the United States threatens them with nuclear war every day, and 2 countries that, logically, should have supported them in the fight against American aggression - Russia and China - join the United States in condemning the Koreans for striving to obtain the only weapon that can prevent such an attack?
The reason for this is completely incomprehensible, since the Russians and the Chinese themselves have nuclear weapons, and they created them as a deterrent against a United States attack - just like North Korea is doing now. Some of their government statements indicate that they fear they are out of control and that if North Korea's defensive moves provoke a US attack, they fear they will be attacked as well.
You can understand this concern. But it begs the question why they cannot support the DPRK's right to self-defense and increase pressure on the Americans to conclude a peace treaty, a non-aggression agreement and withdraw their nuclear and military forces from the Korean Peninsula.
But the greatest tragedy is the apparent inability of the American people to think for themselves, in the midst of constant deceit, and to demand that their leaders exhaust all avenues for dialogue and peacebuilding before even considering aggression on the Korean Peninsula.
The fundamental basis of North Korean policy is the achievement of a non-aggression pact and a peace treaty with the United States. The North Koreans have repeatedly stated that they do not want to attack anyone, offend anyone, or fight anyone. But they have seen what happened in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and many other countries and they have no intention of waiting for the same to happen to them. It is clear that they will actively defend themselves against any US invasion and that this nation is capable of surviving a long, difficult struggle.
Elsewhere on the DMZ, we met a colonel who adjusted his binoculars so we could see the wall between North and South. We were able to see the concrete wall built on the south side, in violation of the armistice agreements. Major described such a permanent structure as "a disgrace to the Korean people who are of the same blood". The loudspeaker blared incessantly with propaganda and music from the speakers on the south side. The annoying noise continues for 22 hours a day, he said. Suddenly, in another surreal moment, the bunker's loudspeakers began to play the William Tell Overture, better known in America as The Theme from The Lone Ranger.
The Colonel urged us to help people see what is really going on in North Korea instead of basing their opinion on disinformation. He told us, "We know that, like us, peace-loving people in America have children, parents, and families." We told him about our mission to return with a message of peace, and that we hope someday to return and walk freely with him over these beautiful hills. He paused and then said, "I also think it's possible."
So while the people of the DPRK hope for peace and security, the United States and its puppet regime in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula are preparing for war, over the next 3 months, participating in the largest war game ever held there, using aircraft carriers armed with nuclear weapons submarines and stealth bombers, aircraft and a large number of troops, artillery and armored vehicles.
The propaganda campaign has been carried to a dangerous level in the media, with accusations that the North allegedly "killed a relative of the DPRK leader in Malaysia", although there is no evidence of this and no motive for the North to do so. The only ones who can benefit from this assassination are the Americans, and their controlled media is using it to whip up hysteria about the North, to the point of accusing the KNDA of "possessing chemical weapons of mass destruction"!
Yes, friends, they think that we were all born yesterday and that we have not yet learned anything about the nature of the American leadership and the nature of their propaganda. Is it any wonder that the North Koreans fear that any day these military "games" could turn into a real thing, that these "games" are just a front to attack while at the same time creating an atmosphere of terror for the Korean people?
You can tell a lot about the real nature of the DPRK, about its people and socio-economic system, about its culture. But there isn't enough room for that. I hope that more and more people will be able to visit this country themselves - as our group - and experience for themselves what we have experienced. Instead, I will end my article with a concluding paragraph from the joint report made upon my return from the DPRK, and I hope that people will take it in, think about it, and act in such a way as to realize his call for peace.
The people of the world need to be told the full story of Korea and the role of our government in driving imbalance and conflict. Lawyers, community groups, peace activists and everyone on the planet must take action to prevent the US government from successfully developing a propaganda campaign in support of its aggression against North Korea. The American people are being deceived tremendously. But this time too much is at stake to tolerate such deceit.
Our peaceful delegation learned from the DPRK a significant part of the truth, which is of great importance in international relations. It's about how increased contact, greater communication, negotiation followed by promises made and a deep commitment to peace can save the world - literally - from a bleak nuclear future. Experience and truth will free us from the threat of war. Our trip to North Korea, this report and our project are our efforts to free the American people from the shackles of lies.
Research by Canadian lawyer Christopher Black
If you listen to today's administration, you will decide that the US is a small, essentially defenseless country threatened by a pack of evil great powers. The huge, globe-spanning North Korean empire features in the latest national security crisis. Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats told NBC that North Korea "has become a potentially existing threat to the United States." In all likelihood, he already sees Pyongyang-led armored divisions, aircraft carriers, air units and nuclear missiles surrounding the beleaguered country.
In fact, Coates' statement is surprising. Last year, the US GDP was $19 trillion, which is about 650 times that of North Korea. Her income is comparable to that of Portland, Maine, Anchorage, Alaska, El Paso, Texas, or Lexington, Kentucky. The population of the United States is 13 times that of the DPRK.
The US military is several times larger than the North Korean military, spending a hundred times more on them. America sets the technological standard for the world, while Korea's resources have outlived their usefulness. With the latest and most technologically advanced nuclear arsenal and 1,411 warheads in reserve (the largest number was 31,255 about fifty years ago), Washington could instantly reduce the DPRK to ashes. Pyongyang is believed to be in possession of twenty nuclear bombs of dubious quality.
Who is a threat to whom?
Coates is not the only Washington official to run out of the room at the mention of North Korea. Last month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Armed Services that North Korea is "the most pressing and serious threat" to the peace and security of the planet. North Korea's nuclear program is "a clear and immediate danger to everyone," he added.
Gen. Joseph Dunford, a member of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned the Committee, saying North Korea's actions pose a "growing threat to the US and its allies." Indeed, Pyongyang's improvement in long-range missiles "is aimed specifically at threatening our homeland and allies in the Pacific."
The Americans seem to be listening. A recent CNN poll showed that 37% of Americans polled believe North Korea poses a "current" military threat to the US and 67% support sending troops to defend South Korea.
Context
Japanese tiger decided to show fangs
Nihon Keizai 18.07.2017Kim Jong Un defeated Trump
Nihon Keizai 07/06/201710 Lessons From North Korea's Nuclear Threat
Project Syndicate 07/26/2017Is peace dawning on the Korean peninsula?
Nihon Keizai 05/10/2017Will Trump bomb North Korea?
The Beijing News 18.04.2017The irony is that the latest results are due to the previous call. If North Korea poses a threat to America, it is because America first became a threat to North Korea.
Of course, nothing good can be said about the Kim dynasty, represented by the third generation. The authorities treat their population rudely and frighten their neighbors. Most Americans would be happy to send the current leaders of the DPRK to the dustbin of history.
Unfortunately, the North Korean elites know this. Let's not forget that the US intervened to protect South Korea after the North Korean invasion in 1950 and would have liberated the entire peninsula if China hadn't gotten involved. Then General Douglas MacArthur advocated the use of nuclear weapons. (against both North Korea and China - approx. transl.): This threat was used by the incoming Eisenhower administration to negotiate a truce.
After the agreements reached, the United States hardly signed a truce agreement with South Korea (in fact, the agreement was concluded on behalf of the UN, it was simply signed by American General Mark Wayne Clark; and it was not South Korea that signed it, but North Korea represented by the KPA Commander Kim Il Sung. South Korea refused to sign the document - approx. trans.). Over the following years, the US placed a military garrison in South Korea and additional bases such as Okinawa. In addition, the US government brought nuclear weapons to the peninsula, conducted joint military exercises with the Republic of Korea, and sent several units of the navy there, including aircraft carrier cruisers, and strategic bombers. The US insisted that "all cards be on the table", referring to the military action.
As Washington may have wanted, North Korean officials noticed what was happening and did not regard it as a friendly move. Of course, North Korea was dangerous, especially with the military support of the USSR and China. But American military actions posed a clear threat to the DPRK regime.
The US danger deepened towards the end of the Cold War, when first Moscow and then Beijing established diplomatic relations with Seoul. Today's China helps North Korea stay afloat economically, but it would not have backed it in a war with the United States before. North Korea is truly alone in the struggle against its southern neighbor with vast resources and the support of the world's only superpower. Very lonely.
Okay, if Washington was just protecting its allies. However, the Kim regime sees the US indiscriminately invading countries around the globe. US administrations have used military force to promote regime change in Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Haiti. The Libyan government was so stupid that it got rid of nuclear bombs and missiles, leaving the country vulnerable to outside intervention. The US also tried to capture a combatant commander in Somalia (referring to the warlord Mohammed Farrah Aidid, who was hunted during the Somali Civil War in 1993 - approx. transl.), invaded trying to prevent the collapse of Bosnia, split Serbia and supported the Saudis during their invasion of Yemen.
If ever there was a paranoid state with a real enemy, it is North Korea.
North Korean officials point to this reality. Of course, everything the North Korean government says should be taken with skepticism, but there is no reason to doubt its concern about possible US military action. When I was in North Korea last month, officials dismissed criticism of their nuclear program, citing the "unfriendly policy" of the United States and emphasizing military and nuclear threats (the latter, they say, have been around since the 1950s).
Undoubtedly, one of the goals of the DPRK's nuclear program is to protect itself from such a threat. Nuclear bombs also have other uses: for example, to strengthen Pyongyang's position on the international stage, increase military loyalty to the regime, and create an opportunity for blackmailing neighbors. However, long-range missiles have only one purpose: to keep the United States from a military invasion of the country.
Multimedia
Parade in North Korea on the anniversary of the end of the Korean War
InoSMI 29.07.2013As for the talk that North Korea threatens "peace", it has never shown much interest in this "peace". The Kim dynasty spent little time scaring Russia, Europe, Africa, South America, Canada, the Middle East or Southeast Asia. North Korea always has South Korea, Japan, and the superpower looming behind them, the United States, at gunpoint.
The harsh rhetoric of the ruling dynasty reflects weakness, not strength. They want to meet their virgins in this world and not in the next; none of them would deliberately commit suicide for fun. North Korea wants to avoid war with the United States, not to enter into it.
If the US wasn't "over there, around the corner," North Korea's safest policy would be to ignore the US. The creation of weapons that can reach America would certainly attract the attention of the United States, setting off the hysteria that is now sweeping Washington. For example, Hawaii is today discussing civil defense measures in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack. But with the threat of war, North Korea's only credible policy remains containment, which means at least a few American cities held hostage.
Naturally, the people of Washington cannot imagine a world in which they do not dominate and cannot act with impunity. However, North Korea does something that other potential adversaries (China and Russia) do not do: it deprives the United States of the opportunity to use its military forces. Since Kim Jong-un has a convenient and logical opportunity to turn a couple of American cities into a "lake of fire", will the US support the so-called "nuclear umbrella" by risking Los Angeles over Seoul? Will conventional war break out, will America march north to field Kim Jong Un and company from Seoul as victory approaches? Will the United States even risk intervening in an armed conflict if the DPRK feels that it could lose its already limited nuclear stockpiles?
Coates is concerned about the vaguely present threat from North Korea, but this is better understood as the usual and permanent danger of North Korean bombing whenever the US sees fit. The North Korean regime may be cruel, but it doesn't want war. On the contrary, he wants to make sure that the US does not go to war first.
The best answer for Washington would be to give up the war it doesn't want. North Korea has long had the resources it needs to defend itself. Although its benefits are not as great as America's - the economy is 40 times smaller and the population is 2 times smaller - South Korea's inability to defend itself demonstrates how the Pentagon has become an international welfare agency.
And as South Korea's desire to develop its own nuclear weapons increases, Washington needs to consider the benefits of rolling back the "nuclear umbrella" so that when protecting Seoul, Seoul is at risk, and not, say, Los Angeles or another American metropolis. Nuclear nonproliferation makes sense, but US security is more important.
Is North Korea a threat to America? Only because the United States has been “behind the door” for almost seventy years, preparing for a war with the DPRK. The US must change its policy in Northeast Asia to protect itself first and foremost.
The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.
According to all forecasts, it seems that Vanga was right and the Third World War will soon begin in 2017. The United States will attack the DPRK and is going to launch a large number of cruise missiles from the aircraft carrier CARL WINSON in response, the DPRK is going to strike with nuclear missiles.
On the eve of the 105th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the North Korean state, Kim Il Sung, which is celebrated on April 15, the United States announced its readiness to launch a preventive strike against the DPRK. This was reported by the NBC channel. The Pentagon did not refute the readiness to attack. "Commanders are always looking at the full range of options in a contingency," Defense Department spokeswoman Dana White said.
To fulfill the plan, Washington pulled the necessary forces into the region. The strike group led by the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson" approached at a distance sufficient to launch cruise missiles. It also includes a guided missile cruiser, two destroyers and several submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles, which were recently used in the attack on Syria. It is also possible to use B-52 strategic bombers stationed on the island of Guam in the Western Pacific.
Aircraft carrier Carl Vinson
Reasons for starting a war?
In addition, the elite Seal Team Six is already on the Korean Peninsula, known for the fact that it was its fighters who destroyed Osama bin Laden in their time. Earlier, experts from the National Security Council at the White House recommended to Trump the physical elimination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a means of combating the DPRK's nuclear program. According to NBC, the alleged attack on the DPRK, in addition to the missile strike, may include "ground operations."
It is the nuclear program of North Korea that is named as the reason for the possible US aggression. North Korea is closer than ever to being able to use nuclear weapons against the United States, CIA Director Michael Pompeo said yesterday. Washington assumes that Pyongyang will conduct its sixth nuclear test on April 15. Moreover, the question of the attack, it seems, has already been resolved. The United States is preparing to strike if only "evidence of preparations for a new nuclear test" is received.
How is North Korea reacting?
In response to US preparations, Pyongyang announced that it was ready for war. “If the US comes up with reckless military maneuvers, it will face a preemptive strike from North Korea. We have a powerful nuclear deterrent,” said DPRK Deputy Foreign Minister Han Song Ryul. At the same time, the DPRK reserved the right to conduct a test "when the leadership considers it necessary." "Whatever comes from American politicians, if their words are intended to overthrow the system and the government of the DPRK, we categorically reject them," the diplomat concluded.
Who else will participate in the war?
Earlier, Trump offered China a joint solution to the North Korean problem. However, he was ready to do it without Beijing. Today, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged South Korea, the United States and North Korea not to bring the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the point of no return. As Alexander Lomanov, a researcher at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told SP, China is unlikely to leave North Korea, with which it is connected by an alliance treaty, in trouble. Video footage of the Chinese military moving towards the border with North Korea has already appeared on social networks.
How is Russia reacting?
Meanwhile, Moscow also called for restraint. Russia "continues to be a supporter of politico-diplomatic methods of resolving all crises," said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Military expert Vasily Kashin is sure that in the event of an American attack, the military response of the DPRK will cause enormous damage to neighboring countries.
The North Koreans can do little against a US attack force, but they are absolutely guaranteed to deliver a massive blow to South Korea and a fairly substantial blow to Japan. Seoul and its agglomeration, where 25 million people live - half of the population of South Korea, is located close to the border with the DPRK. In fact, in the zone of action of North Korean artillery. In addition, South Korea is saturated with nuclear energy, the chemical industry, and all this is located in the zone of action of North Korea's numerous short-range missiles. That is, even using conventional weapons, you can cause huge damage. Especially if you use nuclear.
There is no way to stop these attacks. It will also not be possible to quickly deprive North Korea of the ability to wage war, since they have been preparing for this for 50 years. They have a large system of underground structures, a significant part of the industry and reserves are hidden underground. There is a factor of mountainous terrain. This is a difficult opponent.
Video: US threatens to start another war on the Korean Peninsula
"SP": - Sources say that the US can use up to 2.5 thousand cruise missiles. Not so many - there were 60 of them in Shayrat, and the damage was almost zero ...
Cruise missiles are a specific type of weapon. It makes sense to use them only against a certain class of targets. They cannot effectively hit fortified buildings, are useless against underground structures, etc. Even such a huge force will not allow you to achieve a quick result.
In addition, there is an almost unsolvable problem of combating mobile missile systems. Based on the experience of all previous wars, it is impossible to catch these complexes with short-range and medium-range missiles. And such complexes are what the North Koreans emphasized. For example, missiles of the Nodon family have a range of 1.3-1.5 thousand kilometers. This allows you to guaranteed to hit all of South Korea and part of Japan. There are also analogues of the Soviet missiles Elbrus, Tochki-U, and so on. Pyongyang has hundreds of such missiles and it is unrealistic to intercept them. There will be significant civilian casualties, environmental disasters, etc.
Korean scholar Konstantin Asmolov, an employee of the Center for Korean Studies of the IFES RAS, draws attention to the fact that the DPRK is not at all eager to fight the United States.
The northerners said this morning that they would conduct nuclear tests, but only when there was a command from the leadership. That is, they did not say that "we will blow it up now", but they did not say that "we will not blow it up now". This is an attempt at maneuver. But where is the guarantee that someone in South Korea will not stage a provocation? Recall that after information about the chemical attack in Idlib, Trump said that he already knew who was to blame. Is it difficult to make a staged video where people in the form of the North Korean army “impale a political dissident”?
"SP": - But for South Korea, such a conflict will be apocalyptic?
There are enough conservatives and sectarians in the south who dream that the North Korean regime will be destroyed, but that the US will do everything for them. But besides them, there are pragmatists who understand that the Americans will watch this war on TV, and the DPRK will shoot back at Seoul.
Another important point is that South Korea is an economic rival of the United States. And a lot of the things that Trump said about China apply to the South in a limited way. Therefore, if in a critical situation you have to choose, then the choice may not be in favor of South Korea. Although it is also not worth absolutizing the cynicism of the Americans.
"SP": - What factors may affect Trump's decision to attack?
It must be understood that the north of Korea is not a "colossus with feet of clay." The DPRK has enough military power and this is definitely not the second Iraq. But for the US, this may not be obvious. Washington depends, for example, on South Korean propaganda, which has long predicted the collapse of the north. In this situation, the likelihood of abrupt actions by the United States increases. A situation is possible when Trump will have to answer for his words and make decisions due to domestic political considerations.
Trump now has problems with expert support. Since all intellectuals considered Trump a freak and a marginal, few of the adequate people went to him as advisers from adequate people. As a result, the people who advise Trump on the Korean region are rather strange. In addition, there is still a mess with appointments, which increases the risk of voluntarism and situational response.
According to RISS researcher Konstantin Blokhin, abrupt steps in the international arena are politically beneficial for Trump.
Prior to the attack on Syria, Trump's rating was very low - 36%. This is a critical bar. For example, Nixon had 27% before his resignation. Trump had to think about how to dramatically increase public support. After the strike on Syria, the rating of the American president immediately increased by 8 points. Trump was immediately supported by all of his fiercest critics: McCain, Rubio, Lindsey Graham, William Crystal, etc. The press wrote that Trump had finally realized himself as president. He is reminiscent of the new Reagan, and this helps him a lot in the domestic political situation.
"SP": - Can Trump order a missile attack on the DPRK without asking the consent of Congress?
If we remember how the invasion of Iraq went in 2003, no one asked anyone there. There were no agreements at all. Another thing is how Trump's order regarding the DPRK can then be interpreted by his ill-wishers. In fact, the change of political regimes in the world since the 1990s has been the cornerstone of American politics. This is a favorite neocon theme. Now Trump has also gone down this path.
Vanga said that the Ancient Teaching would come to the world, and this would be the beginning of the end. It becomes clear that it is not worth waiting for a conventional war, today the scope of world weapons has reached such a level that the Third World War will be fast and therefore the most terrible and destructive. A chemical weapon is not a tank, it is impossible to stop the consequences of such an attack. After all, the explosion of a chemical bomb itself is only the beginning, because after the fire itself, all the dirt that gets into the air and water after the attack will go its own way and there will be no barriers to it.
After sending an American aircraft carrier to the shores of the Korean Peninsula, there was a feeling that the United States was preparing to teach Kim Jong-un the same lesson as Bashar al-Assad.
Indeed, if President Trump has already ordered an attack on a Syrian air base, why shouldn't he order an attack on North Korean targets?
Talk that the new leader of the United States may try to end the DPRK's nuclear missile program by force has been going on almost since Trump's arrival in the White House. But is it really so?
Lenta.ru tried to imagine what the consequences of US aggression against North Korea would be.
Once every two or three years (usually in the spring), the world media begin to write actively that the Korean Peninsula "is on the brink of war."
This year was no exception. This time, the reason for such publications was the threatening statements of the Donald Trump administration. Over the past two months, its representatives have been hinting that a possible test by North Korea of an intercontinental missile capable of reaching US territory will become the basis for a strike on the DPRK.
Since things seem to be moving towards such a test, the words of American officials sound very convincing.
In addition, the new owner of the White House is considered an emotional person, not too versed in international affairs, but at the same time appreciating his image of a tough man who will never bend and will respond harshly to any challenges.
In addition, there is insider information that in the first couple of months after Trump was elected president, he himself and his advisers were thinking about how to prevent North Korea by force from becoming the third state after Russia and China capable of launching a nuclear missile strike on the United States. States.
The recent bombing of a Syrian air base by Tomahawks, as well as the decision to send an aircraft carrier to the coast of the Korean Peninsula, only added arguments to those who predict a strike on the DPRK.
In fact, short consultations with specialists seem to have been enough for the White House to realize the scale of the problems that such a strike is likely to lead to.
So this time, the US is obviously bluffing, using the image of the “unpredictable Trump” that has developed in the world in order to put pressure on the DPRK and force Pyongyang to suspend work on intercontinental missiles, or at least refuse to test such missiles. Things will not come to a war, including because this war is unacceptable for the United States.
Let's imagine for a second: Donald Trump, having learned that the DPRK is preparing to test an intercontinental missile, really decided to use force against Pyongyang. In real life, it must be emphasized, the probability of this is close to zero.
But purely hypothetically, one can assume that the eccentric US president will succumb to the emotions that the next Fox newscast will cause him or the conversation with his daughter Ivanka, excited that her beloved New York was within range of North Korean missiles.
If events develop according to this scenario, the United States may limit itself to striking a missile ready for testing, or even try to intercept it in the air after launch. Such actions will not cause a serious scandal, but they will not give a special effect either: work on long-range missiles in the DPRK will continue, although the failure of the tests will somewhat slow down their progress.
A cooler option would be an attempt to disable some of the key facilities of the North Korean nuclear missile complex with a surprise strike: weapons production centers, enterprises that manufacture missile components and assemble them, test centers and warehouses. Although these facilities are mostly heavily hidden, usually located underground, and many of them the United States simply does not have information about, such a strike is theoretically possible.
Unlike the first scenario, in this case the leadership of the DPRK will not be able to hide from the population the fact of a strike on the territory of the country. Under these conditions, the fear of losing face will most likely force Pyongyang to take retaliatory measures.
However, the matter will not be limited to domestic political considerations: the leaders of the DPRK understand that the absence of a tough reaction to aggression practically guarantees that forceful measures will be used against them from time to time in the future.
Giving reason to doubt one's resolve on the Korean Peninsula is generally dangerous, because concessions are perceived as a sign of weakness (this applies, by the way, to both sides of the conflict).
What will be the response? Of course, there is a possibility that Pyongyang will limit itself to shelling a few military installations that are within range of North Korean artillery.
But such a reaction will turn out to be very asymmetric: a dozen destroyed dugouts and damaged guns is sheer nonsense compared to the many years of paralysis of the nuclear missile program that the American attack will lead to. Therefore, it is much more likely that the capital of South Korea will be chosen as the target for a retaliation strike.
Greater Seoul, a gigantic agglomeration of nearly 25 million people, is located right on the border with North Korea.
The North Korean army has concentrated in front of Seoul - in fact, on its northern outskirts - a powerful artillery group, which includes about 250 high-powered guns capable of hitting targets in the northern and central parts of the Seoul agglomeration.
These guns are in fortified positions, and their elimination is not an easy task. Most likely, having received an order, they will open fire and fire at least a few dozen volleys. Even if only military targets are the target, such shelling of a huge city will inevitably lead to heavy losses among the civilian population.
With a high degree of probability, the leadership of South Korea will perceive the shelling as a casus belli and will act according to the circumstances: it will inflict a powerful blow of retaliation on the northerners. As a result, the Second Korean War will begin on the peninsula, which will claim tens or even hundreds of thousands of lives.
It is not clear what position China will take in the event of a large-scale conflict. Formally, he is an ally of the DPRK and must enter the war on its side. However, there are many reasons to believe that the PRC will not do this, because the behavior of North Korea, and especially its nuclear program, Beijing is incredibly annoying.
Few people in China want to fight for the DPRK now. True, there is no doubt that Beijing will support North Korea indirectly, including by providing it with military assistance - no matter how much the Chinese want to teach Pyongyang a lesson, the desire to teach Washington a lesson is stronger.
Chinese aid will mean prolonging the conflict. As a result, even if the war ends with the defeat of Pyongyang, for Washington and Seoul this victory may turn out to be a pyrrhic one.
In addition, there is a danger that the leadership of the DPRK, faced with the prospect of complete defeat (taking into account the balance of forces in the field of conventional weapons, the defeat of the North is the most likely scenario), will decide to use nuclear weapons.
Thus, the United States, having struck in order to stop the hypothetical threat from North Korea, will find itself embroiled in a full-fledged military conflict comparable in scale to the Vietnam War.
At the same time, unlike China, the United States will not be able to evade participation in the Second Korean War: parts of the American armed forces are already in Korea and are likely to become one of the main targets of a North Korean attack. In addition, this conflict, as already mentioned, has some chances of developing into a nuclear phase.
A major war in Korea will mean a worsening economic situation in the US and, most importantly, noticeable human losses, which in modern developed societies, voters usually do not forgive. The number of victims of the war will go into the thousands, and this can be very costly for both Trump and his entourage.
Even if the Second Korean War quickly ends with a truce, its consequences for Washington will still be sad.
Seoul has been living within the reach of North Korean heavy artillery for almost half a century, but this did not create serious problems for the citizens. Therefore, it will be difficult for them to understand the logic by which the illusory threat of shelling of US territory forced the Americans to unleash a conflict that led to the destruction of the capital of South Korea.
The citizens of this state will form an opinion: the United States for them is not so much a guarantor of security as a source of problems. This, in turn, will have an extremely negative impact not only on US-South Korean relations, but also on the entire system of US military alliances as a whole.
A strike on North Korean facilities could lead to the collapse of the alliance between Washington and Seoul even if it does not provoke a major war.
However, everything described above is, we emphasize once again, nothing more than theorizing. The American leadership realized that there was a considerable difference between Syria and the DPRK and that a strike on Korea was too dangerous.
Therefore, the scenario described above has little chance of being realized. Now Americans are bluffing, partly taking advantage of Trump's established reputation as an unpredictable president.
For decades, the "card of unpredictability" was skillfully played by Pyongyang, and now, it seems, it's Washington's turn.
Andrey Lankov Professor at Kookmin University (Seoul)
